Am I ever folding this hand on the river?

Are you saying you prefer a x/jam to a donk-jam on the turn?

I've been saying I like a donk-jam here, when we make our hand on a card that also brings in the BDFD. We could conceivably have some bluffs, and the 9s might give V some 2P or 1P + draw combos that bet the flop and can't find the fold when they improve.

It may be debatable because of the stack depth, but I think all other things being equal, a donk bet is going to get more calls from V than a check-raise. It's kind of a disaster if we check and V just checks back with a good chunk of his range. And the check-raise is so strong that it lets V fold another good chunk if he barrels for a smaller size.

Like if it goes check, V bets $150, and OP jams $885 into $480. What hands does V have that will call off another $735, getting worse than 2:1?

V would have to barrel for a pretty large size if we want him to call our jam. If he does the standard bad-reg sizing of 2/3 pot, that's $220, and the pot will be $1435 if hero jams. V could still get away from top 2P when he has to call off another $665.

I'm not trying to be rude: I genuinely feel like I'm missing something (and I do misread HHs on the regular) because what you're saying makes zero sense to me.

A shove is R108 if villain bets so much as 1/2p (which I suspect they will with any hand that stacks off). How are we getting called lighter with a donk 2.5x jam when the only draw got there?

If villain checks back they probably have something like JT, which 1) Isn't stacking off OTT regardless and 2) Is more likely to call a river lead than a donk overjam OTT.

It's not even like I'm opposed to the overbet lead because it's unorthodox. B25 donk is viable (though I don't think that's the right exploit for the population's tendencies) and overjamming the river lead is gangbusters. This line just feels like we're going out of our way to NOT take a stack-a-donk line against a young asain unknown. Just...why?

I don’t think we should be cold calling much but if game conditions warranted a cold call, my range would be all pocket pairs and never a suited ace or suited connectors. We would have to fold to a 4b with all these hands.

Pocket pairs are much easier to play than drawing hands.

If you are going to open+call this pre, pretty much have to x/r on this flop.

Don't mind donking turn, but not for this size. Bigger or smaller.

River is w/e ... probably shove unless he's going to overvalue KT or whatever. You getting screwed, but folding correctly would be godlike.

Ouch.

Reading the reveal, I guess T9 also makes some sense, but I'd think with multiple straight draws coming in, and two to a flush on board, most opponents are going to think about it for at least a few seconds before calling off a donk over-bet.

The very fact that you donked would slow me down while I thought about your range. Top 2P isn't an automatic snap call, especially not when you over-bet. I'd mostly be folding T9s on the turn, and mentally congratulating myself for having enough discipline not to go broke with it.

I think the only way you can check the river is if you're ONLY planning to check-fold. He has very few if any bluffs.

Unless you fold to the 3B pre, check-raise the flop, or donk-jam the turn, it's hard to avoid disaster here. Maybe he barrels turn and you can check-jam, but if he snap-calls your over-bet donk, I question how often he folds to a check-jam.

Others can disagree with me, but I think it's hard to put him on boats when he cold-calls the EP 3B pre. It's such a fishy play. Maybe it's reasonable with TT, but that's just 1 combo.

If he's getting to the flop with T9s, then it stands to reason he gets there with JTs, and 98s, and 87s, and 76s, and probably A5s, and maybe A8s. Almost certainly he shows up with ATs. Maybe all the KTs and QTs too.

I think every hand that isn't trips or better checks back the river, so you're pretty much locked into jamming or check-folding, and I think I'd mostly jam, because I think V would have a hard time folding TX getting over 3:1 on a call, and there's a non-zero percent chance he makes a crying call with some worse hands, when the flush draw misses.

I dunno man. I'm probably in the minority here, but I think you just ran into a special V who showed up with a hand he shouldn't have in this line.

Wouldn't we also have to fold our low and middling PP's to a 4B?

My point is that if we're folding AXs to a 4B, and we're folding our low-middling PP's to a 4B, we're less likely to get 4B when we block AA/AK, so cold-calling a 3B with AXs would seem to make more sense than cold-calling with some low or middling pair.

The odds of flopping a set are 11.8%. The odds of flopping a flush draw are 11%. Not much difference in terms of how often we'll be able to continue on the flop. The big difference is in how often we'll get 4B pre, and how often we'll make a second-best hand and go broke post. We can get set-over-set with our PP's. We can't get flush-over-flushed with AXs.