Name: (AUS) – Variance, Mental Game (Tilt) & Victory: My Poker Journey
1st post: Introduction
Well every Blog should start with a hey right? So hey you the reader how you doin? (yes this is a
Online cash is that easy? Just wait for good hands?
I would say so at the low stakes, play a very tight VPIP PFR strat, and then just fast play all your nutted hands, lots of QQ into AA or other way around etc, and if you hold you win and if you dont you lose, and you just repeat it. I personally dont like it, yet there are crazy crusher like DKB who is in this thread and has his own thread. He finds max profit and lots of cool exploitive lines vs regs and fish, thats the skill level, I just dont like cash enough to spend hours studying it.
I would say so at the low stakes, play a very tight VPIP PFR strat, and then just fast play all your nutted hands, lots of QQ into AA or other way around etc, and if you hold you win and if you dont you lose, and you just repeat it. I personally dont like it, yet there are crazy crusher like DKB who is in this thread and has his own thread. He finds max profit and lots of coo
Mtts are sexy. I like them.
Whatever you do don't play pit games.
300k bankroll in 10 years? are you hoping to play live MTTs full time?
Weekly Grind – Spinning Out, MTTs Locked In
Hey legends, time for another update—and this one's got some clarity, grit, and a bit of soul-searching.
💀 Spin & Go Verdict: Kinda Cooked
After a solid week of testing Spin & Golds, I’m pulling the pin on the original plan to grind out 5K games. Why? Because the answer is in the data—and the data says meh. Even with rakeback, I’m looking like a breakeven player long-term.
I had two brutal 7-hour stretches that really tanked the stats, but outside of those, the graph’s mostly hovering around breakeven or a slight win post RB. So while Spin & Golds aren’t my ticket to the online grind but, they’re not a total waste either.
🧭 Where to From Here?
MTTs will stay front and center as the bread and butter, but I’ll sprinkle in some $5 or $10 Spin & Golds when I’m time-crunched and still want to get hands in. They’re great for volume, decent for rakeback, and won’t tilt the whole ship off-course.
🔥 MTTs—Back Where I Belong
Let’s be honest: MTTs demand sacrifice. Whether it’s three hours of sleep after a deep run, or skipping post-work social gatherings to get volume in, this is the reality of the grind. And I’m here for it.
Jumping back into MTTs this week reminded me why I commit to this path:
✅ Ran above EV (love to see it)
✅ Felt sharp, focused, and hungry
✅ Results? 🔥
Screenshots are below, but trust me—it’s been a refreshing return.
A few solid deep runs this week across fewer than 20 MTTs—variance impacted of course. But the real highlight? Bagging a tidy stack off a single bullet in the $25 PLO Mystery Bounty.
Could’ve multi-fired and tried to stack higher, but sticking with one entry means a boosted ROI if we min cash. (already GTD a Min cash). Day 2 looking promising with 30+ big blinds, so there’s plenty of play ahead of the 1 bullet stack.
🧠 Data Game Strong
One big win this week was finally learning how to manually edit session data in PokerTracker 4 so my GG results are dialed. I reviewed every cash, corrected the missed MTTs (especially GG Masters and special events), and fine-tuned all my Spin & Gold stats.
Now I’ve got accurate ROI%, ITM%, BB/100, and Chip EV readings that blow PokerCraft’s default tracking out of the water. It’s a solid foundation for analyzing sessions and planning the next moves. (below results dont include rakeback).
📅 Looking Ahead
Time to draw up a proper schedule and keep the MTT momentum going. (obvs add in more than GG as its the site i find the hardest to win on as shown by the graphs) I’ll pepper in Spin & Golds when needed—but the focus is back where it should be.
Thanks for reading another blog—let’s keep climbing. 👊
I’ll post some pretty raw/unfiltered thoughts from my mind regarding tilt/confidence/self doubt/emotions etc. Hope that’s ok, didn’t read thru the whole thread, I read thru the first few posts and def recognized some similarities tho
Here we go….
Been playing for 20 years, had a few years off but it’s been 85% NL cash thus far and the last few years been mostly PLO for the other 15%.
I’ve always been a pretty confident player, only in my worst downswings/long stretches did I face major self doubt but in those times it showed up at such an insane level that it completely consumed me and made me question everything. I never even fully overcame this until recently, I just ran good enough over the years to only be put in this situation fully 1 time and maybe 2 other times partially. I always knew I was good enough to make it in poker tho honestly but having horrendous results for a few months did truly challenge that belief and like I said I never actually overcame it back in the day due to taking a stake and having a backer that believed in me more than I believed in myself. Turned out he was right tho but that really isn’t a win when you get there but it was the fuel of some else’s belief in you rather than your own
Fast forward to the last few years and I’ve transitioned to mostly PLO cash. On my own BR tho I’ve done many stupid things with my $$ outside poker that have massively hindered me. I find a regular live PLO game that is pretty amazing overall that happens to have 2 of the better PLO players in America as regulars in it, 1 of whom would be considered as one or the biggest PLO Legends in the live scene over the last 20 years and I just started at the bottom building from 30bb buy ins to 150-200bb buy ins and gained major confidence in myself and my PLO game
Fast forward another 18 months and I’ve made terrible life decisions outside poker again and found myself at the bottom once again but this time playing app games all by myself where I could let my tilt and self doubt out w/o fear of being judged by anyone other than myself. The games I have access to are amazing and the first 4 months are pretty smooth despite running a bit poor overall. I’m slightly frustrated by this but overall feel really good about my spot.
The next 4 months however are the worst I’ve ever faced in terms of adversity and running bad. It’s a rewind back 17 years to when I played online, went on a downswing and lost belief in myself and took a stake. This one wasn’t as bad in terms of buy ins lost/downswing…I’m actually in better games now than 17 years ago but the beats are even more brutal. I’m losing 75-80% of hands I get all in vs where I have 60-80% equity and if I get it in behind I’m losing almost all of them.
For the first 1.5-2 months I took it in stride pretty well. After that I started having a lot of “poor me, I run so bad” kind of thoughts that were consuming my sessions and starting to consume my life. I was determined not to take a stake again, to move down in stakes if necessary, basically whatever but I was going to face my own fear of failure head on by myself w/o needing someone else to intervene and help me believe in me. I def did not always believe in myself during this time. I mostly did but there were days I would succumb to my negative thoughts. And I didn’t actually pull out of this DS into BE stretch for almost another 1.5 months….but……
A funny thing happened that I didn’t allow to happen the 1st time when I gave up and took the stake. My thoughts of “I can’t win anymore, why is this happening to me, will I ever win again, etc etc…” slowly turned into….”I just ran awful for 2 months straight and they never got me down more than 20 buy ins…..this run would have broken most decent to good players and I’m still here, this is shaping me to be great….only maybe 10% or less of the players I face will have dealt with any kind of adversity in poker like this, I’m gonna be very tough for almost everyone to deal with”
I basically sat thru the alchemization process of seeing my negative thoughts of self doubt transform into belief in myself and my ability to handle adversity and be resilient. Having skipped this earlier in my career it actually hindered me and prolonged my process of learning to face what seems unfaceable and insurmountable and transcend it purely in my own mind wo outside reassurance
I hope you take what I wrote and use it as a guide to face your own doubts and demons and come to a conclusion in your on mind about where you stand…and then press forward in the face of any adversity and actually learning to welcome it as it will be the very thing that forges your into greatness itself. Greatness only comes after facing our darkest fears and summoning courage we didn’t even know we had inside us. This is why so few people attempt to achieve such a feat as every fear we’ve ever avoided must surface and be conquered before we can achieve this task
Do you put any study hours in?
What software do you use to study MTTs?
I’ll post some pretty raw/unfiltered thoughts from my mind regarding tilt/confidence/self doubt/emotions etc. Hope that’s ok, didn’t read thru the whole thread, I read thru the first few posts and def recognized some similarities thoHere we go….Been playing for 20 years, had a few years off but it’s been 85% NL cash thus far and the last few years been mostly PLO for the other
That is very well written and quite inspiring! Hopefully I’ll conquered the above as well! Hope you enjoyed the read! Love the fact you provided so much depth
I do put study in - atm just maintenance stuff with a live coach - also I have the old school raise your edge masterclass I still go over
Lex on twitch is a great resource for free
Rye and guys like pav are great to watch on YouTube for free content as well
Have you considered just playing live MTTs full time? Update?
Hello all from APL Millions!!!
Well about to be im writing in the airport after a 45min delay to my flight time.
I have taken 2 weeks off from playing to be prep for this series and I cant wait to get going!
Today I have the Heros mix game event $600
and I have the 1.1k 6-max championship if I dont run deep in the mix
I sold 35% of my action for the series at 1.03 MU. Its pretty cool people believe in you enough to buy a % of your action, its also nice to lower the variance on my bankroll after not cashing an event last year in gold coast.
Hopefully a much better series around and ill update you guys each day!
Looking forward to a fun 1.5 weeks! lets go try and ship the main event or something else to add to the collection!
How do people buy % of ur action get paid? Bitcoin?
Follow my insta- i put a package up they inbox to buy a piece (or %) I sell them that Piece,
I then at the end of the series tally up the wins and losses (i create a an excel spreadsheet to track throughout a series) and then if I am positive they get a % of that profit.
�� APL Millions Day 1 Recap & Day 2 Strategy
Day 1 was a grind. We played two MTTs—the $600 HEROS and the $1.1K 6-Max—and while the fields were soft and the spots promising, the deck didn’t cooperate.
In the HEROS, we hovered around 15 big bets most of the day, repeatedly rebuilding from 2–4bb only to get outdrawn in key spots. Razz hands bricked, Stud hands got rivered, and even a high-low scoop turned into a chop when our opponent hit a wheel. We busted 18th on the soft bubble with $11K up top—frustrating, but played well throughout.
The 6-Max was a short-lived affair. Late regged, doubled once, then lost a flip and had to jam 5bb J9o UTG with the BB ante looming. Ran into AQ and that was that. Still, the field was massive—up 30–40% from last year—and $67K up top shows how much value is in these events.
�� Day 2 Plan: Strategic Pivot
Originally planned to play both the $1K 8-Game and the $2.5K Centurion, but leaning toward skipping the 8-Game to focus fully on the Centurion.
The 8-Game is +EV and fun, but only ~$20K up top.
The Centurion could crack $200K, has streamed tables, and is packed with crushers—exactly the kind of challenge I want.
Refunding backers for their 8-Game piece feels right, and keeps things clean. I’ve sold 31% across the series, so risk is well-managed even if variance bites early.
Let’s hope Day 2 ends with a bag in the Centurion and a juicy Day 3 plan of going deep in one of the major MTTs of the year!
Appreciate all the support, more updates coming tomorrow.
People here would love to see you win big mtts, going to las vegas and winning the wsop main event 3x in a row and going down in history as the greatest no limit poker tournament player of all time. also like stu unger are u going to make big bets on sports? AFL finals is coming up. freo got good odds.
People here would love to see you win big mtts, going to las vegas and winning the wsop main event 3x in a row and going down in history as the greatest no limit poker tournament player of all time. also like stu unger are u going to make big bets on sports? AFL finals is coming up. freo got good odds.
Looking winning 3x mains would be tough as - never say never i guess but i would highly doubt this. No a big sports better but will have a few small multis on here and there throughout the finals series.
APL Millions 2025 – Day 2 Recap
Day 2 of the APL Millions was a grind — and we’re right in the thick of it. We made the call to skip the 8-Game Champs and focus fully on the $2.5K Centurion. That decision’s already looking sharp: over 500 runners in the field, and late reg is still open for two more one-hour levels. Pretty wild numbers for a buy-in at this level.
Our own start? Swingy. Mentally off, tilted early, and by the first break we were down to 35K from the 100K starting stack. Frustration was high, and honestly, I didn’t feel like I belonged at the table. But having my partner here made all the difference — a few grounding words flipped the switch, and the A-game started to show.
We hung tough, grinding back until we found a dream spot with 7♠6♠. Multi-way pot pre, I flatted a c-bet on 4♣5♦J♠ alongside the BB. Turn brought the 8♠ — the nuts. X to me I bet small to set up a river SPR < 1, and the original raiser jammed with KJo. We snapped. He was drawing dead.
From there, momentum built. We hit 114K by second break, then surged to 160K after the third. The table was soft — perfect for a $2.5K — and we were dialed in. Unfortunately, we got moved. The new table was tougher, but manageable. We cruised to 215K by the final break.
In the last two levels, we peaked at 248K after boating up and getting paid. Then came a cold stretch — card dead, played just two hands, both folded river. Still, we bagged 193,400 heading into Day 3. That’s 81BB at 1.2K/2.4K blinds. Not bad at all considering we were down to 35K inside the first two hours.
Now, the real test begins. My Day 3 table draw is stacked — Khale Burns and Jarrod Thatcher on my left, Adam Thaagard on my right, plus a few other familiar crushers. Easily one of the toughest tables in the room. With so much soft dead wood in the field, it’s a brutal draw.
But I’m embracing it. This is the kind of spot I’ve been preparing for all year. It’s a chance to showcase the work, the study, and prove I belong. These won’t be the last battles with these guys — and today’s a great opportunity to level up.
Hopefully I’ll be back with a Day 3 write-up that includes a deep run in the Centurion. If not, there’s a $600 Sprint and $1K PLO tonight to bounce back.
See you all on the flip side!
Do u believe its worth playing daily $100 mtts with 15-30 players? What sort of roi? Live
Do u believe its worth playing daily $100 mtts with 15-30 players? What sort of roi? Live
Im unsure need more info on the tourneys and were they are etc, but in short yes they are beatable- since its live 20% ROI + probably over a long sample size
Im currently at 40% ROI live life time according to my Pokertracker APP in tourenys but that a short sample because i dont grind live mtts every weeke etc.
Day 3 Recap
Well… it was one of those days. The $2.5k didn’t go to plan, and the $1.1k PLO gave us a solid 25 minutes before disaster struck. Here's the rundown — frustrating, yes, but we move forward.
$2.5k Centurion
We sat down at a table full of crushers, ready to battle. Third hand in, we pick up QQ in the big blind. CO opens, BTN — a strong reg — 3-bets to 7bb. We 4-bet to 20bb off an 80bb stack. CO jams for 60bb, BTN folds. What do you do?
I threw it to Instagram — split between call and fold. Honestly, it’s player-dependent. Against a solid reg, you call all day. Against Old Man Coffee, you fold. My read? Tight, but a little spazzy — mostly based on his outfit. No solid info. I leaned on GTO here — it’s a razor-thin spot. We call. He shows AA. We go from 194k to 18k in three hands.
From there, we grind. Folded down to 5bb, then doubled A3o vs KTo. Doubled again with 33 vs A8o. Then, right before end of rego, we get it in with 22 vs AJ for 20bb — spike a deuce on the flop.
So: 194k → 18k → 12.9k → 123k by end of rego. Starting stack is 100k, blinds 2k/4k. We’re alive. That’s the one bright spot of the day.
Then came the freeze. Card dead for two hours. Played just three hands — all from the BB. Re-jammed KTo vs SB open for 13bb. Defended 45s and 64s, missed both. Just couldn’t find a spot.
Post-break, folded down to 6bb. Then finally saw AT — jammed from MP, CO wakes up with 99. Board runs out QJ8J5. Flip lost. Dream of 344k gone.
We finish 224/771. Honestly, we played well. Outside the QQ hand and maybe the 22 spot, we did everything we could. Stayed mentally tough, clawed back, kept fighting. With a little variance and better distribution, a deep run was brewing.
$1.1k PLO
Missed the $600 we wanted while hanging around the $2.5k, so jumped into the $1.1k with 40bb and a dream.
Made it to break, then this hand hits: BB with AA9J single-suited. BTN (a reg) opens to 3bb, SB flats, we pot. BTN re-pots — basically puts us all in. We run it.
He shows KKA9 single-suited. We’ve got him crushed — 71% preflop. Flop comes Ks4sKc. Yep. Quads. GG.
Early night. Nothing we could do. What we could control, we nailed. First few days have been solid play, zero reward. Feels like déjà vu from last year — fire bullets, brick everything. Either get it in behind or they catch up. Haven’t had a deep run in Australia’s biggest series since 2023. Still a week to go — hoping the tide turns.
Next Up: $1.5k Jackstar
Soft field. $200k+ up top. Would be a great one to bag Day 1. If not, early night before Day 2 of MLR.
Catch you on the flip side. We keep grinding, keep controlling what we can. PEACE
Hey team, in bed so just a quick one
We played awful- calling like 58s from the sb awful like a whale - was clearly annoyed at the last few days and when we didn’t start well we clearly weren’t in the mood to play
Anyhow from our 80k ss in the 1.5k drop to 35k before calling an 18bb 3bet jam with AQs vs AK- we found a Q to stay alive and get to 50k and 50bb
Next orbit in the bb again- we look down at QQ again like the 2.5k
Instead a fish raises to 3.5bb a good reg 3bets to 12bb - so bigger pot similar situation - decide on just get it in instead of 4bet and have to fold
Original raiser has KK and gg
Brutal game running into everything - but played really bad today too
I’ll mlr- kinda still feel like it doesn’t matter what we do I just fly up to QLD to lose 99% of the time- but who knows maybe I won’t go card dead for the 1st two hours like the 2.5k
anyhow an annoyed and frustrated Damo out speak to you tomorrow - sighhh
