NL-10 Failed Bluff
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 113.7 BB
BB: 39 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 102.2 BB
CO: 143 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♦ A♣
fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 2♦ 8♥ 9♣
MP checks, Hero checks
Turn: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 2♥
MP bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, MP calls 12 BB
River: (38.5 BB, 2 players) K♦
MP checks, Hero bets 34 BB, MP calls 34 BB
Hero shows T♦ A♣ (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 59%, Flop 25%, Turn 14%)
MP shows 6♠ 8♠ (Two Pair, Eights and Twos)
(Pre 41%, Flop 75%, Turn 86%)
MP wins 101.2 BB
How does opponent call here?
Is my line bad or is this guy pot ripper?
8 Replies
As played raise on the turn don't make sense. On the river, i don't understand why u bet there. Do u want to make a bluff? How many kings there's in your range?
3bet pre especially with him opening that hand.
Turn and river you're not repping anything.
Yeah you rep very little here - On the flop you would likely bet all your sets, especially as some opponents will range check here from MP here, so you can expect some action when you bet (also 88/99 are gonna be frequent preflop 3bets).
Only really 2 combos of A2s make sense as your value range.
Your turn raise reps either A2s (2 combos) or something like a combo draw, JT hh or 76 hh, also 2 combos. Almost any other value (A9s, TT+ etc.) combo either 3bets pre or bets the flop. When the combo draw misses its 50-50 value to bluff ratio. Villain calls 34 to win 67, so he needs just under 34% bluffs to make the call. You have 50% with the combo draws alone so easy call. Overly loose open, to be sure, but good bluff catch in this spot.
At least have the Ah or something if you're going to run a bluff here. Yeah, it's bad for a ton of reasons. There's a ton of busted draws you can have, which is rarely a good spot to run a bluff. People find reasons to call. I think some is said above, but profitable poker is about picking the best spots to bluff, where you rep wide ranges, and have some back door outs just in case. 😉
I would lean towards folding ATo OTB. If you want to create action with it, though, I'd 3-bet rather than call. Assuming Villain is on the tighter side, which given this open.. maybe not?
Raise on the turn is pretty funky, but more bad-smell than Red Hot Chili Peppers-groove type of funk. You could probably attack if their bet was smaller and/or you had the Ah
..or anything else with decent backdoor equity
Would we be leading our [88, 89, 99] on the flop? I'm not sure how credible this raise is; we only have a slither of 2x
I'll leave that to someone else to answer
Don't forget that your hand still has some SDV. I don't think the argument could be made that you're folding out hands that beat you [AJ+] as they shouldn't be betting these here, and certainly not for this size (I think)
When we're bluffing and a card comes that benefits our opponent's range, I think we should be stopping and just admit defeat. Especially as the Kd is a very clean card indeed, as it's not completing any draws and it's a high card (better for PFR).
We're being far too aggressive and bluffy with this hand
Remember, we don't need to win every pot. Trying to do that leads to situations like this
Bet flop b60 instead.
Because every hand starts pre-flop it is essentially the foundation of any profitable poker players game. Based on this pre-flop action I will assume the rest of your pre-flop game is bad. You really just want to be playing 3bet or fold in these extremely high rake environments, especially when people are opening too wide, and not 4betting you enough.
When the weaker players call you OOP with a capped narrow range, and you are IP with a strong linear range. You make money. Simple as that.
If you were to have BTN cold calls (which I don't recommend), it's best to choose hands that are on the right end of winning big pots (PP's, SC's) not hands that are on the wrong end of big pots such as ATo. However, like I said 3bet or fold is optimal.
GTOw has freer pre-flop charts. Start with those, learn to play solid pre-flop, try to understand the mechanics of what the solver recommends, then eventually you can start making great pre-flop exploits.
