Not sure how to fix my biggest mistake?
I have located my biggest mistake:
When I have an above average stack, cruising along, looking good and then I shove with something like QQ. Somebody has me covered and calls with something like JT and proceeds to knock me out of the tournament.
Is it smart just to avoid all-ins when fairly deep? I’m thinking I need to lean towards pot control when deep with a big hand?
It’s not me calling off with a big hand. I do it to myself, shoving a strong hand that gets beat. Playing a tournament tomorrow and the next one won’t be until December. Going in tomorrow with the goal of not getting all-In until the final table if I’m progressing well. Obviously, if I become a short-stack, I’ll play the push-fold game, but only then.
If anyone has advice, I will be thankful
9 Replies
If your biggest problem is that you keep getting all-in as an 85% favorite and losing, it won't be a problem in the long run.
Like, in terms of tournament play and ICM, yes, once you build a bigger stack and are running deep you should take fewer risks that would knock you out of the tournament. But the situation you're describing is such a huge edge that there are few if any spots you should not take it. (I'm not even sure outside of satellites that those spots exist, other than extremely rare final table situations where there's a massive stack jamming and you're a huge second-biggest stack and everyone else is very small.)
That was just one example. I’m always trying to make moves, it could have been 66. The point I’m making is I don’t know ICM real well, but if I’m in no danger of blinding out anytime soon, then I’ve got to be more cautious; especially around people covering me.
I keep seeing the double-up propelling me ahead, without enough thought about the possible disaster. I feel like I’ve been playing push-fold with too big a stack. Looking to use leverage now, without committing everything. There’s a reason the same people always run deep and I’ve got to find it.
It kind of gets to me that every single player in a tournament loses an all-in, except the winner.
So, I’m kinda offering myself a solution that I’m not sure about. Looking for a better solution.
There are a couple of main issues here that will need an explanation. Also, there is a huge difference in what is happening if it is a bounty tournament (especially a mystery or PKO) because people will call a lot lighter if they have us covered and will call a lot tighter if they don't.
Are we talking about preflop jams? Are we first to act (i.e., has everyone folded before us)? What is the effective stack size? Are we near the money bubble? Are we in the money?
Assuming we are talking about preflop situations well before the money, I wouldn't be jamming preflop first in with >15 bb's. Most of the other people here wouldn't be jamming with >12 bb's. The exception for me is when it is folded to me in the SB where if I have a PP or ATo+/AXs type hands I will often jam with <20 bb's and occasionally <25 bb's. But then I will often limp with hands I want all in like 77-JJ/AJ+ and then 3-bet jam or call a jam.
When I have <15 bb's I will be jamming with my entire raising range. If I am jamming and then all of a sudden min raise it would look a lot like AA/KK and it will give PP's the right price to set mine. So I can win a little or lose a lot...
There are other exceptions for me. Like if we are right before a break where most people won't play marginal hands (so if I jam with A4s and 20 bb's, hands like 66-88 probably won't call). One time in the WSOP Main Event with 3 hands to go on day 1, I jammed 44 from the CO with like 23 blinds. My thinking was that nobody would want to call unless they had QQ+/AK or maybe JJ/AQ and I would be OK up against AK/AQ. But it turned out AJ was in somebody's calling range and miraculously I survived the flip (didn't cash though).
If we are talking about 3-betting pre-flop then if it is vs a min raise I will be jamming with my entire range at <= 20 bb's. If it is against a larger open I will be jamming with <=25 bb's. And if I am in the SB or BB I will be jamming based on whether or not my 4x 3bet would be >=30% effective stack.
The other situation that comes up is if there are one or more limpers before us pre-flop. My typical raise sizing when I am above avg stack is 3.5x + 1x for each limper + 1x if I am in the SB or BB. If that bet sizing is > 30% effective stack then I would jam. The other limp situation that comes up is when I am in the BB and I have an A or a decent PP. I will often jam with < 40 bb's unless the first limper is somebody who hasn't really limped before and I think might have AA. I have failed about 3 times where I jammed and was up against AA. One time it was in a 3 way final table spot and I had 77 (and a shortish stack like 18 bb's) and the limper had limped a bunch of times and folded to prior raises. So this won't be perfect...
There is one other situation that is kind of like what you are worried about and it happened to me in a Foxwoods tournament many years ago. I had QQ in the SB and like 80 blinds. The CO open jammed with like 15 bb's and because my 3-bet would have been over half my stack I jammed. The BB woke up with KK and had me covered and I was knocked out. It is one of those crazy spots where there might not be a good answer. If I had just called and the BB had jammed I'm not sure I would have folded because AK might be in their range.
Similarly in a bigger Foxwoods tournament I opened with QQ UTG+1 and a wild guy 3-bet like 7x from the BTN it was called by the BB and I thought that meant a hand like JJ/TT so I jammed with again like 100 bb's. The BTN did fold and the BB called with AA and down I went.
And yet in Prague I was 4-bet jamming pretty much all the time with AK and QQ and was flipping for the most part. You win some and lose some but the doubling up thing can send you deep.
One final note. Typically when I raise and am called by one or more players and then a short stack jams I will often re-jam with whatever my stack is so I can get it heads up. I won't do it if one of my opponents is also shortish stacked and would have to call. But at the Venetian in a multi day tournament in my largest cash ever, this happened on Day 1C when I had 66 and was called by 2 players and then a shortish stack jammed. I re-jammed and the first caller called with JTs so I was up against JTs and AKo. 6 on the flop though.
There is one other situation that is kind of like what you are worried about and it happened to me in a Foxwoods tournament many years ago. I had QQ in the SB and like 80 blinds. The CO open jammed with like 15 bb's and because my 3-bet would have been over half my stack I jammed. The BB woke up with KK and had me covered and I was knocked out. It is one of those crazy spot
30 is less than half of 80, so I'm not sure about your math there. That said, flat calling the raise is probably fine considering a 15BB jam is substantial enough that nobody's going to be entering the pot light behind you. I'm not sure what to do in the face of a jam though. Might just be a setup hand for you no matter how you play it.
30 is less than half of 80, so I'm not sure about your math there. That said, flat calling the raise is probably fine considering a 15BB jam is substantial enough that nobody's going to be entering the pot light behind you. I'm not sure what to do in the face of a jam though. Might just be a setup hand for you no matter how you play it.
I don't min raise 3bet (I don't even min raise 4-bet though I am starting to look at 2.5x rather than 3x in position). OOP my 3-bets are typically 3.5x to 4x. So here it would have been about 55 or 60 bb's. Which is 75% of my 80 bb effective stack so that's why I jammed.
I think I see why a min raise 3-bet here could be effective though. Because for everyone else it makes it a huge bet to call. Though here ironically it would be >30% effective stack so pot committing for me anyway. I think I appreciate the thought looking to the future because in spots where it would make the bet <30% effective stack it could be effective to be able to get out of the way of a jam which might lean towards KK+.
I could have flatted but I thought it might let hands like AJs/ATs flat behind me and I didn't want to have to deal with an A or K on the flop OOP. I will typically flat all ins where I have no fold equity (like if somebody else had called and my all in would be like less than triple the all-in).
I keep seeing the double-up propelling me ahead, without enough thought about the possible disaster. I feel like I’ve been playing push-fold with too big a stack. Looking to use leverage now, without committing everything. There’s a reason the same people always run deep and I’ve got to find it.
It kind of gets to me that every single player in a tournament loses an all-in, except the winner.
Sounds like a single-issue tilting that the volume is the best cure for.
If by the "same people" you mean normal ICM-aware people, then it's just ICM-awareness and safety play.
If by the "same people" you mean a bunch of maniacs who get big stack, then it's just a survivorship bias. You notice one time they cash while not seeing nine times they busted with complete garbage early in other tourneys.
Sounds like a single-issue tilting that the volume is the best cure for.If by the "same people" you mean normal ICM-aware people, then it's just ICM-awareness and safety play.If by the "same people" you mean a bunch of maniacs who get big stack, then it's just a survivorship bias. You notice one time they cash while not seeing nine times they busted with complete garbage early
If by the "same people" you mean a bunch of maniacs who get big stack, then it's just a survivorship bias. You notice one time they cash while not seeing nine times they busted with complete garbage early in other tourneys.
P.S.: Either that or your field is full of nits. If somehow the last is the case, just overbluff and overfold against them.