NL10 - A4 on a failed bluff
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 100 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 122.8 BB
BB: 101 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♦ A♠
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 7♠ 6♣ 2♥
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB
Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 5♥
BB checks, Hero checks
River: (14.5 BB, 2 players) Q♥
BB checks, Hero bets 14 BB, BB calls 14 BB
Hero shows 4♦ A♠ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 36%, Flop 3%, Turn 18%)
BB shows A♣ 7♣ (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 64%, Flop 97%, Turn 82%)
BB wins 40.4 BB
He had the exact hand I thought he had. I bet big because I thought it would be hard for his 7x to call.
Should I have bet bigger on the river?
What are your thoughts on this hand?
3 Replies
I don’t know if betting the flop is the right play. I think we have better bluff candidates with all of the straight draws and gutshot plus over cards types of hands we have. Plus if we need more bluffs from there we can also begin selecting from two over cards with back door flush draws before going with the one over card plus BD straight draw. We have, I think, the same amount of nutted hands as the BB, but the big blind probably hits this board more often than we do as his calling range here is looser than our raising range. However, as played I like the turn check, and by the time we get to the river it does indeed look like he has a single pair type of hand. The river hits our range nicely as the preflop aggressor, and it also completes a flush. I’m unsure of how relevant the flush is here because if we are selecting our bluff candidates with BD flush draws we will need to barrel some turn cards that give us the FD, but we might also check some meaning we can credibly rep the flush on the river after a turn check. With that being said the call is wayyyy to easy for him to make even at full pot. I’m thinking 1.5x-2x is where we should be here, and if he’s still calling a lot at those prices we can just exploit him plenty by hammering for value instead.
If you Polarize Flop, which is I think a Good Play, Why do you Not bet Turn Big with an Open ended SD?!
What more Equity Bluffs do you want to find Here?
On BD Flush RunOut it is than an Easy Fold.
This hand is ok to bet the flop with for this size, but likely a flow frequency in theory (and if you are playing large sizes as standard be careful of overdoing the frequencies).
The 5 on the turn downgrades your value range for this size (lots of overpairs/sets etc) and you do have small amount of SD value vs villains draws, so I would prefer to barrel 8x/9x hands that blocks the straight. Also when you go large on the flop your opponent should have fewer Ace high floats that would fold to the turn bet.
River bet is going to work a reasonable amount of time, 6x/5x/44/33/2x can fold. Similar to above said you could size up with the flush coming in. There will be less backdoor hands that calls on the flop due to your larger bet size, so less flushes will land (also most players just lead a flush here).