I want to bluff this river, but how big do I need to go?

Before deciding if you should bet...what kinds of better hands are you hoping to get him to fold?

It's hard to bluff on this board after you checked flop.

I guess you can overbet and pray he folds his Tx.
His Jx, flushes, boats, and st8s are all calling.

My thought was that villain gets here with a lot of hands worse than Jx (Tx, 9x, 6x, pocket pairs with a heart, maybe AK/AQ with a heart) that are likely to fold. I don't think Jx or stronger ever folds in this line.

For what's worth, I am checking a lot of strong hands on this board OOP to two players, although I don't expect villains to know that necessarily.

idk if he calls those when u bet big and hes sandwiched lol

AQo is a relatively weak hand, so I would open at a bigger size OOP. Hopefully, you end up with only one caller. $15 is standard opening in my 1/3 game. Playing a vulnerable hand out of position, I would appear to be putting it in with confidence repping a bigger hand.

Cbet the flop with that same air of confidence. It’s not a bad flop for you as it unlikely they have a jack. You have to think about the story you are telling, not the scary board.

As played, it’s hard to read. I could see villain just call with a baby flush, AT, and other hands that beat you. When I don’t know what to do, I’m not sticking money in the pot.

Doesn’t sound like the bluffing type, so if you check and he bets, you’re probably beat. I think you give him a chance to let you know.

Check!

This is fair. It's pretty possible that villain gets to the river way stronger than I am giving him credit for, especially given that fish love to check trips on the flop (and won't always bet flush draws, either.)

If that's the case, I wish I just checked the turn. AQo might legitimately be the worst hand I get to the river with in this line because I have very few unpaired offsuit hands that open UTG and bet big on the turn.

$15 is a pretty standard open in this game, and I don't vary my opening size with my hand strength as a general rule. I think I would rather open fold AQo UTG than size up to $20 or $25, but folding this hand feels very nitty and sad.

Cbet on flop seems reasonable and could very well be the best play on this board, especially with the BDFD.

I'm not loving betting into loose passives hoping for folds. That said the tell you describe is very indicative of someone wanting showdown now, so happy with the bluff here.

I wouldn't bet that big on the turn, probably with any hand.

River is w/e, if we bluff it needs to be over 80 and maybe over 120.

But esp. as a new person at MS 2-5 I think people will call the new guy a lot here (also more likely on turn than sub is giving credit for IMO). Being the youngest also doesn't help.

I agree the chip stack thing is likely a reverse tell to get you to bet less or not bet at all, but I wouldn't assume that means he isn't calling 150.

No one is really capped here, everyone can have boats and flushes. That said when I see the tell you mentioned they almost never call so bombs away.

Agree w/ OmahaDonk -- that is a real tell. Would be nice if you had seen it from him before, but it's usually pretty accurate. I think $80 - $100 does the trick. $80 looks value-y.

id just use block ott and see what happens

Think you have an easy flop bet that probably takes it down a lot, and given the texture you can go relatively small. Could you bluff this river? You could but would probably have to overbet it which requires a very frequency of winning the hand. You can rep Jx/TT - it's risky and hard to quantify if it's profitable. Would just bet small on the flop.

If you do what everyone else does, your results will be like theirs. You raise bigger OOP to magnify strength and discourage calls. If the only option is a standard open, I would fold this hand. I don’t consider it nitty, it’s a weak hand.

It’s not based on hand strength - it’s based on position - you raise more OOP.

Knowledgeable players know that only stronger ranges get involved from early position. Playing bottom of range, you’re trying to convince the field you have a monster.

It’s a redline situation looking for folds not value. If you’re not ready to tell that story, I would fold.

Also, maybe a tell, maybe not. A lot of players instinctively grab their chips when most of their stack is in the middle. I think you got involved without a plan and now you’re in a way ahead, way behind situation guessing.

$300 seems fine.

You can say I played the hand poorly, but I had a plan the second the flopped checked through and the Th came on the turn, and my plan was to blast. I would say there is virtually a 0% chance my hand is ahead in this spot (MAYBE chopping with AhQx) so "way ahead, way behind" isn't really accurate either.

I agree that it makes some sense to raise bigger from EP, but I have also heard winning players argue that you should raise smaller from EP to keep the pot size down when you are almost guaranteed to be OOP. That being said, I would argue that the vast majority of winning players raise the same size regardless of position (with blind v blind being the exception) and that is also what I do. I guess I could always limp though 😉

Thanks. I was wondering if someone would suggest to go 2x or more. At the time, given that I felt UTG1 was really capped (not sure I feel that way anymore, given some of the feedback I have gotten here) a really big bet makes a lot of sense, but I have historically had trouble finding these plays in-game.

This was an theory I saw discussed 15 years ago, or so.

One of the many things solvers did was disprove this assumption/theory.

There is some value in doing "weird" things that opponents don't expect, or aren't used to. That value goes down though, if the weird thing is bad/wrong.

Wasn’t saying you played it wrong. Not at all, it’s a matter of style. More than one way to skin a cat.

I like a bigger bet from OOP preflop and on the flop. This is for my entire range which is very very tight. I don’t want it to be cheap to float.

I’m charging ahead until the turn, repping a big hand that I will have a lot. If I play strong & meet resistance, I feel better informed. I’m trying hard not to get to the river not knowing what to do.

On the turn, I could throttle up or slow down depending on my hand & the action. This may not be right for everyone. My bet-sizing is consistent. I just have a different size depending on position.

You win playing strong hands in position with aggression. I don’t want to give it all back OOP. We take our own chances, and pay our own dues.

That tell is pretty reliable. Think we can bet large and he mostly folds.

Been working for me. I guess nobody is using solvers in my games.

I mean ... you said you wanted to post here because you wanted to learn what all the young nerdy kids knew from computer models/simulations of the game, and this piece of info. is confirmed in every model: You open tighter and for a smaller size from earlier positions.

Honestly not even sure what you mean by "working for me" either.

Can you still win by ignoring certain things from solver land ... of course you can, if not we'd all be losing.

Are you saying you believe that doing the opposite of what every solvers says is true is better? That seems very unlikely.

If you are saying something more like "The reason why it's bad in solver land is likely due to ranges being significantly more weighted to 3bets than live players do in my games." ... then, sure, that's probably true but it likely makes it less bad rather than better. Also you have to constantly be vigilant that nobody looks at a preflop chart and starts 3betting you anywhere close to what it says they should.

I'd rather bet turn small or check to get Vs to cap themselves, then take a massive line OTR if it goes HU OTT. AP I'd rather check-raise than bet as I think you win check-check >50% of the time.

i think you win basically 0% of the time if it goes check check after the turn lol

I honestly appreciate all the push-back and I certainly listen and rethink things. You’re one of the better posters illiterat. Thank you for your help. I’ll try to explain:

Nobody ever 3bets me - I play 1/3
I open raise to $20 UTG and $15 in position. Nothing drastic

Most of the time, I get what I want from UTG the gun = one caller. Betting $15 brings a multiway pot consistently. So instead,I get one wary caller who usually goes away when I bet the flop. I’m thinking redline OOP and value in position.

Obviously, it’s not always pretty. Sometimes I still get 3callers of $20. Always adjustments to be made. I’ve been criticized here for playing a weak hand in position, but I have no doubt that I play less hands OOP than most on this forum.

So, I’m not refuting what you say, but that little extra $5 has put me in favorable situations. I see all kinds of hands opened early in my games, but I don’t do that. Nobody notices that I’m always strong in this spot, because I play a lot of speculative hands HJ, CO, Button & occasionally from the LJ.

Sorry for the snide reply. There’s enough of ‘that guy’ on this forum & I don’t want to join that crowd. Theory is extremely important to me and I’m here to learn. It will be important if I move up in stakes, and I really want to win a tournament, but when it comes to 1/3, I’m not rushing to change a lot until I quit making money.