[low] Weird spot facing out of turn river bet with over-pair at 1/3

Check, let the bet go through, see what BB does before raising.

(I imagine you're raising this, right? My first thought was, "Whelp, JT/T9 must feel great now..." Facepalm, but if I brainfarted there, they might too. Dunno why I sometimes can't see when I'm counterfeited, though it's blindingly obvious compared to all the double gutters I miss until showdown...)

Accidents happen.

FWIW, I've been known to overlook it when I've been counterfeited. But also, it's hard for JT or T9 to not be good here, if I actually did check the river.

So, if I did check, I could see V thinking JT is the best hand and betting for value. In fact, I'd think any JX, TX, or 9X that gets to the river this way might be a thin value bet, if action checks to him.

The sizing he chose seemed odd to me. It's only 1/3 pot. I didn't know what to make of that on this board. Is that thick value hoping to get called by a weak range when action checks to him, or JT, or AJ, or a missed flush draw that doesn't think he has to bet very large to make 66-88 fold?

It opens up questions about what size to raise, assuming we do raise. Obviously his bluffs are turbo-folding, but with the weird action of the out-of-turn bet, and that bet being small, do you think he might think he induced a check-spaz-raise as a bluff, and so he calls down with JX or even TX?

Flop seems like a no-brainer bet, since any pair is calling as well as many curious Ax hands... and there's no reason to give them a free card to a 2 or 3 outer.

On the river, there's similarly no reason to override the out of turn bet.

Yes, check and let the bet stand. 99, maybe some TT, 8 combos of KQ, one combo of 87s (with the bdfd) and maybe the odd combo of Q8 (without bdfd) are BN's nutted hands. Whether BN calls an unusual x-r with JT, J9 I don't know. You would think he'd bet these Jx on the flop. However, when there's a floor issue with bet out of turn etc., players tend to overcall raises out of frustration.

id just check and probably call because i dont see what worse hand calls a CR. its also possible its a bluff. and if you bet when you know a bet is coming it just looks super strong. in fact id put you on a rivered straight with KQ if you bet river big.

That rake though

I looked at responses this time, and I like most of your reasoning and the many suggestions to check. I also agree with Nitty that I would just call the weird line that might show up with a 5card hand.

I really don’t like the ‘no bet’ on the flop & it’s obvious you missed value when they both call the turn. This was an interesting hand, I hope he didn’t have a deuce.

Are you raising river? If so, what size?

Cbet flop. Definitely check and let the bet stand. Then reevaluate, but probably call. Betting, letting the out of turn bettor raise would be really bad.

Check call seems fine.

Ditto nh.gg. Check and see what BB does. I probably check/raise because it looks bluff-y and it will be hard for them to fold JT, T9. Plus we block QK, although that would suck. FWIW, I bet the flop.

my initial thought is 160. would raise bc of his sizing, is possible we get owned by jj or something

$160 was the number I was thinking, too.

Not spotting being counterfeited is my worst blind spot in poker. Not sure why.

Isn't most out of turn play genuine? Not sure if people really play out of turn to induce actions.

Most ppl at 1/3 are not bet/3betting turning showdown value into a bluff.
Unless villain is super fishy hes not overvaluing anything besides 2x/st8. Most recs just call your check/raise with 2x/st8.

Do you think he ever shows up here with 2x the way this was played, or that he's getting to the river with a straight draw that gets there, but only bets 1/3 pot?

We double block KQ. I potted it on the turn and he called, next to act, on a paired board with a BDFD. That doesn't seem like 87 drawing to a gut shot to the low end of a straight. And my hand blocks KQ of the flush suit.

I was heavily discounting 2x and straights, the way this played out. I think his range is mostly worse 2P for value, and some random air that stabs for a small size when the PFR goes check-bet-check. It doesn't look like I have an over-pair. It looks like I have some weak showdown value hoping he checks back.

Just in case my question isn't clear, the pot is $240 wirh V's $60 bet, and we have $365 left. If we raise to $160, the pot will be $400 and we'll have $205 left. If V jams, we'll be getting 3:1 on a call. Is there a world where we raise for value and then fold to a jam?

The thing hes probably never 3bet shoving with worse.

"relatively solid, not getting out of line" is betting the river small into 2 to b3b the river all in either as a bluff or for value with worse than the 24th nuts? lol

you arent remotely capped given that he bet the river out of turn

I check, with the intention of check calling.

I personally don't want to take too much advantage of such errors.

Without going into detail I think the advantage of information, the times he calls a bigger bet, the times he'd have folded to your bet, etc are about a wash.

But there is value in keeping the game friendly and relaxed and keeping our image as a non-cut throat player.

I know V is basically competent but I don't want people to lose or feel humiliated because they got put in some weird spot and a shaprer player owned them.

To be clear I don't think it's angle shooting or being some crazy rules nit to check raise. But I find it both more pleasant and more profitable when we err on the side of giving people a break.

I like what ES2 says: there are bets out-of-turn that are genuine and those that are angles, although sometimes it's not easy to distinguish one from the other. For instance, you could consider BN's bet as a kind of blocker designed to stop you potting it again --- a kind of angle-panic hybrid bet.

So if you think the out-of-turn bet has some angle in it, then I'm more on board with a small raise. If you're contemplating a raise/call then you'd want to be certain of who you're playing against. Yes, players do overvalue in these situations and very occasionally bluff, but gee ...

If you believe the bet is more of a mild-panic type of mistake, then I'd favour a x-call and quickly move onto the next hand.

yeah i mean poker is a game of profiting off your opponents mistakes. i dont really see any reason to grant clemency here especially when he chooses a size smaller than we conceivably were going to bet ourselves. its unclear to me how he can act before the guy who potted the last street (who he called vs) and i dont really see this as an angle. if the prior street(s) checked through or something im at least more open to hearing an argument to show mercy but i mean this is a bit much for me to excuse - its a multiway situation in a potentially large pot with action still pending

while its unfortunate for him, i don't see why someone else should be penalized because he is incapable of paying attention for 3 minutes during likely one of the biggest hands of his session.

My question is, if we raise less than all-in, are we folding to a jam, when we'll be getting at least 3:1?

I don't think V is likely to be bluffing into 2 people here, when the BB over-called the turn bet. If V is betting worse for value, and either calling a raise, or possibly 3B'ing, does it make more sense to just jam, if we're never folding?

To Sub's point, I would have value-bet more than $60. I was probably going to make it 2/3 pot ($120). When BTN bets out of turn, and BB folds, I don't see why I should sacrifice value by just calling rather than raising.

Does a raise to $120, the amount I would have bet, make sense? If we think he NEVER folds to a min-click, then, does that become an argument for raising bigger, especially if or because he might perceive the raise as being FOS, and call with more of his range?

If we're raising, it's because we think we have the best hand, right? The more we size up with the raise, the harder it will be to fold if V jams.