When you know your opponent has a set, but you turn a flush.
I was playing against a player who was set mining a lot of the night in a cash game as he rarely didnÂ’t play a thing that wasnÂ’t a pair. He also was very passive if he didnÂ’t hit a set. I am on the button with Kc10c and open to $10 in a $1/3 game. The small blind raises to $20, the big blind calls and I call as well. The flop was Kh9c2c. The small blind leads for $20, the big blind makes it $40, I call, and the small blind folds. The turn is a Jc and the big blind leads for $80 and this is where I may be making mistakes as I raised to $240 with very little behind and almost putting him all in. I really felt like he had a set and want to either push him off it now or make him draw to it. He called and the river was a 2s pairing the board. He had $7 behind and stuck it in and with so much money now in the pot I canÂ’t fold. The cards were flipped over and he showed that the river had made him quads. If you believe your opponent has a set on the turn, do you just call the turn or raise with your flush? Should I be leaving myself more folds on the river? Also, if we were playing even deeper what amount on a turn would I need to bet to get a set to fold?
5 Replies
If you’re 100% sure villain has a set id probably just call the turn bet with my made flush. Most players at 1/3 from my experience won’t fold to a turn bet on a 3 flush board with a set. These guys wait all game for their set so they’re not usually folding - they’ll just sigh and pay you off.
So long story short yes jamming the turn wouldn’t have made a difference…they would’ve called a big bet on the river if they miss their boat anyway most times.
You could’ve saved money by waiting and folding your flush if the board pairs on the river - then value bet the river if villain misses.
Money saved in poker is the same as money earned. You got greedy and got unlucky….it happens.
Remember the old stock market saying which I apply to poker at times: bulls (betting) and bears (folding) make money and pigs (super greedy players) can get slaughtered.
Is this a serious question? Why would you WANT a set to fold? The only reason you wouldnÂ’t just shove when you hit the flush would be that you might make the set fold. YouÂ’re looking to ge as much money into the middle as you can in this spot.
Think about it - you have the best hand on the turn and your opponent usually has ten outs (1 for quads, and 3 of each of the other ranks on the board). In this case he only has 9 since you have a king. With 44 cards left your equity is generally 34/44=77.3%. (ItÂ’s 35/44=79.5% in this specific hand). Why would you not want to get your stack in as almost a 4-1 favorite?
This is probably a live hand. If you think he has a set, the shove is good, as he will call even if he suspects you have a flush. It isn't that big a disaster if he folds with some equity. Probably want to shove anyway, as it is unlikely he is folding, but particularly with that read.
This is probably a live hand. If you think he has a set, the shove is good, as he will call even if he suspects you have a flush. It isn't that big a disaster if he folds with some equity. Probably want to shove anyway, as it is unlikely he is folding, but particularly with that read.
I got that it’s live, but OP was talking about how to get villain to FOLD his set ott so hero didn’t lose when the board paired otr. I understand that the runout was bad in this particular case, but why in the heck would you want to get villain to fold when you’re almost a 4-1 favorite?
