River bluff vs unknown nit woman

Isn't this a straight-forward fold on the Flop? V was strong before the flop and then bet into 8 people, so she obviously has an overpair. You're far behind, someone could raise after you, and you have to pay over 40% pot. You don't have the price to continue with just 10 outs.

I also don't know about the river raise, it has to work over 50% of the time and I don't think it will; people don't like folding overpairs.

(Also, shouldn't you end the hand history before your action, not before V's action?)

Ya, agree with above. Fold flop. I wouldn't go for a river bluff against this player either. She's just unaware how to bet with overpairs and is just gonna sigh call you.

I'm fine with preflop.

Why are we calling the flop? She obviously has an overpair, there's a world behind us that could be tarping, all of our "outs" could be dirty against the world, and we have no IO on a 4-to-a-straight board.

I mean, even though she checked the turn, her preflop/flop action still suggest an overpair (which MUBSy nits can easily just check / calldown with, which is actually an awesum play against people who love to punt into weakness). I'm not in the business of attempting to get overpairs to fold, especially when we don't have a reasonable story to tell (what is our story, BTW?). So I'm not putting in any more money at any point of the hand UI.

GcluelessNLnoobG

flop is an easy fold, position matters.

just fold the river, i challenge you to rep a hand that makes any sense here.

Flop is a raise or a fold, heads up it's a raise, multiway probably still a raise?
AP, turn is a large bet
AP, river is a fold

You're not telling a consistent story, and I think villain calls to see how unlucky she got

I’m not sure I would have taken this line exactly, but I like your play here. People get honest on the turn & her check means weakness. I pot the turn and take it down

There’s a good chance villain has ace king or some other paint and not a pocket pair. or she doesn’t check the turn. Even the little river stab looks like AK to me, so I think your overbet wins often, even if called.

I hate the reraise, but don't mind the pf/flop/turn actions.

We all have our pre-conceived notions about women players but some are surprisingly not as nitty as you'd think. I've seen some crazy donkey plays from some old ones too and it's like are they wearing a mask? LOL.

I don't mind just calling the rvr to keep her honest. We're priced in.

I would call river, I see fish take this line with AK cause they’re “supposed” to cbet.

I call river and probably call flop because I'm a fish.

We're not concerned about her having/hitting a straight.

It's not small bet vs. the odds of us hitting a gutshot.

Is everyone forgetting (on top of everything else) that we have *7* (!!!) people left behind us to react?

None of outs are too the nuts, all of them are dirty, and our IO suck when a four liner comes in. Our hand is pretty worthless this multiway.

Gflopissettingmoneyonfire,imoG

I called flop because this was a lol soft game. But, yes, I understand the flop call is a bit iffy at a more aggressive game.

i think raising flop has to be much better than calling. calling doesn't strike me as that bad though. you need ~23% to call and have position vs a fairly defined range

i would prefer to bomb the turn rather than raise vs block, but i dont think id bet turn ingame either. i think river just wont work vs overpair often enough

As played, fold river as I doubt she would bet with AK there. If you want to call it is also fine I guess given the bet size it is a small -EV to pay for a data point.

Yup, I'm not putting V on a straight, just that we may be ahead and also have a gut, so not concerned about pot odds.

Seems like a weak table with lots of limpers so I'm not worried about not seeing the turn.

It’s fine yeah, slightly +EV.

Grunch:

PRE - it is what it is.

FLOP - I might fold some worse 1P hands, but with the ISSD working for us, and with enough AX in V's range, I can get on board with calling 20 into 45.

TURN - Nice check back with SDV.

RIVER - pump the brakes, Sally. What are you doing?

This is the easiest call in the world. We have showdown value, and V is choosing a size that screams weak value or a bluff. We checked back the turn, setting up this easy bluff catch for less than 1/2 pot on the river. Why would you raise here? What worse hand is calling?

With sub: this is a raise vs the world's most obvious big pair. Helps if we know she won't have entitlement tilt tho. And also agreeing with sub, bomb turn.

I don't think you, with the image you've portrayed here in prior posts, get credit from a nit for slowplaying fat value on that river.

Guys she never has AK by the river. AK goes check check. Once she bets it's KK AA pure maybe QQ. She bets out small because she's afraid of the board, river was ANOTHER low connected card. She dinks out like 1/3-1/4 pot....this has to be a mega raise repping sets, FHs, I called next to act OTF because I flopped a straight with 67s..that's my contiguous story.

yeah i mean its mostly a function of

1) how often do you think she folds those hands here? % wise.
2) how often does your raise need to work?
3) does a bigger raise generate more fold equity in your opinion?
4) how often does a bigger raise need to work?

if you're truly confident in your assumptions (never has > aa) which i think are reasonable given pre tell and line, what do you think she does if you jam? im not sure where the line is but when she blocks 25 into 85, to me 155 isnt the magical fold everything number. 500 though might be. 155 is basically a pot sized raise whereas here i think you really want to go for it if you do. maybe 300 or something as a middle ground?

155 has to work ~58% of the time
300 has to work ~73%
500 has to work ~82%

to me 155 doesnt seem big enough that she doesn't just **** it call or whatever a decent amount of the time, esp given that you check turn, rep fairly narrow, and she blocks river so thinks maybe she induced. all in going to be what i would imagine is the theory approved sizing too when you're repping nuts vs capped range (obviously we are signif overbluffing with potentially no actual nut hands in our range / no blockers)

am not entirely sold that this is good / necessary / profitable but i think if you are going to throw money at the pot you want to really make it hurt for villain if theyre wrong

if people think you checked back the turn with a straight they truly are a special kind of stupid.

I really like this statement!

Sometimes it’s not so much about better folding & worse calling, it’s creating a terribly difficult decision for villain by making a bet they can’t call.

Result: