Playing professional. My results and some questions
If you count tournaments, I just hit over 2k hours. Tournament hours are likely wrong though, but everything under cash games is correct. Besides cash game average buy in, and rebuys. I just change my stack count to what I'm in for and cash out what I'm leaving with. Since I top off a lot it I don't want to make it a rebuy everytime I'm topping off $50 to my stack or something.
70% of my hours or so are 2/2 with a $10 straddle and 1k capped buy in. With the majority of the rest being $5 straddle games and smaller buy ins since each casino is different. I've been playing professionally for over a year now. The first 400 hours or so I was pretty new to the game so was getting my feet wet. Which also included my biggest downswing (18k so 18 buy ins). I was also gambling a bit then due to life stress and took a break. My longest breakeven was actually right when I decided to go pro and quit my job haha which was about 250ish hours (right before the sunrun on the graph).
The games I play are very soft. I play more loose and agro than the other pros. They tend to just stare at their phones and play good hands whereas I'm more exploitative. The table tends to be filled with fishy players and I'm the only one that is decent. Not that everybody else is awful, there are some okay players. But none that I'm intimidated by. The other pros aren't around as often as me because they play a bigger game.
Clearly I had a sunrun in the middle of my graph. But it seems like I'm consistently doing well. I feel like a more reasonable hourly would be $130 or so (about 13bb/hr since $10 straddle is the most common game I play) but idk how much of this is variance being well to me or if I'm actually this much of a winning player.
I don't want my expectations to be too high so I'm trying to get a better idea of what to expect in my future years.
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2/2/10 is 5/10 basically. It would be hard to say what to expect exactly wo seeing how the game looks/stack depth/how bad they're putting money in deep
$1k cap game will def bring your hourly down compared to a match the stack game where you can start off deeper but if you're one of the only good pros in the game I'd expect over $100 for sure but def seems like you've been on a big heater so not sure I think you can maintain that kind of hourly unless it was a match the stack game
There will be periods where you will go on decent downswings/long break even stretches as well. 250 hours of break even is kinds just the tip of the iceberg even in soft games. I'm playing some very soft app games and usually play 2-3 tables and I'm borderline breakeven over the last 400-450 hours which in "live poker" terms is probably closer to 1500-1800 hours. While I don't think online/app games translate completely to live as live games still tend to be more beatable with more punting overall it just goes to show how bad things can actually get. This has probably been my worst run I've ever experienced as a pro and I've never actually swung more than 20 buy ins down and I'm actually up 10-15 buy ins overall, which is a complete testament to how good the games are as I've probably had a bottom 3-5% run in the last 4 months compared to what's possible
Since you're new it's good to know that going 6 months of break even is certainly possible even in incredibly soft games. If everytime you get it in with 60-80% equity you lose 75% of them it's just very hard to win much even with people all around you punting. So expect stretches like this are possible even if you never face anything this bad yourself. Protect your BR and don't do stupid stuff like buy a $150k car if you value your ability to play this game consistently wo stress when things are going horrific. You're in an amazing spot to never go broke or be even remotely close to at risk of it if you're willing to grind this game consistently and don't torch off your BR outside of poker. Even if you take shots at bigger games and they go against you for a long time your ability to grind a game like this consistently should be highly valued and respected
You mind sharing some hands and thought process that you think you played well(not nuts peddling).
You mind sharing some hands and thought process that you think you played well(not nuts peddling).
A good majority of my hands will be a "fold pre" for sure. I will limp with hands like QQ64, AT73dd just A7dd, etc. Use this for reference: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/38/om...
Like I said, I play exploitative. Sometimes I'll call flops with the naked ace if the flush draw is on the board just to bluff a future street because I know my opponent won't call me with a worse flush if they hit, bet, and I raise, or will fold if the flush hits and I barrel turn and/or river if they check to me. Or in the same hand if a different scare card comes I can get them off of their 2 pair. A lot of my opponents play face up. For example, a lot of the players if the flush comes in and they check, they don't have a flush. I could have none of the suits in my hand but bet it and they will usually fold. My hand could be absolutely terrible to bluff with, but they do not balance at all so it doesn't matter. If they call me after the flush hit the turn and the board pairs on the river, they will lead out only with a full house and it's always a full house. If they check I can likely make them fold. Against some of the good players that I play with, I won't do things like this because they will balance. They know how to exploit my exploitable tendencies.
I will also make light/hero calls against players that I know will bluff and their line doesn't make sense. Spots where a lot of players will think "I'm beat by sets, the straight, a better 2 pair, etc.. I fold". And not that their hand is mediocre but good enough to bluff catch. Since the opponent would check anything they have showdown value with that isn't great and only bet their very best hands or a bluff and their sizing doesn't line up with what they usually do with their made hands. People are amazed sometimes at some of the calls I make.
This is how I'm different than the other pros that I play with and why I can't review many hands with other people. I do share them when it comes to spots that I play normally and not exploitative and I'm not sure if I played them correctly though. I don't have any on hand to go over.
Sometimes I'll call flops with the naked ace if the flush draw is on the board just to bluff a future street because I know my opponent won't call me with a worse flush if they hit, bet, and I raise, or will fold if the flush hits and I barrel turn and/or river if they check to me. Or in the same hand if a different scare card comes I can get them off of their 2 pair.
The problem with this is, on most runouts, you won't even have the opportunity to use your future blocker. I question whether this is profitable even if you had 100% fold equity.
The problem with this is, on most runouts, you won't even have the opportunity to use your future blocker. I question whether this is profitable even if you had 100% fold equity.
This isn't something I do very often because only about 1/3rd of the time will I get the chance to do anything with the naked ace by the time I see a river. And even if it's successful like you said with 100% fold equity there's no implied odds so wouldn't be very profitable. I'd have to get the right odds on flop and turn and guaranteed 100% fold equity. Usually when I do it, I have some other equity in the hand. It just factors into whether I call the flop or not. If they are a nit and will check 100% of the time when a scare card hits and they don't have it. I can represent it whether I have blockers or not. Which is why I added that if a different scare card comes I can get them to fold a better hand. Having the ace blocker just gives me a better potential spot to bluff if I miss or don't improve.
Some of these players will never look me up light. I just always have it in their eyes. Or even if they say they don't think I did, they will follow it up with they want to wait for a better spot to call. Problem is they don't balance so they never have that spot, since they're always betting their good hands to protect them and never checking any of them. But there are players who will look me up because they know I'm capable. I don't do this against them.
It's all situational.
Calling with just the bare ace to bluff when it hits is generally a very bad strategy. You need other equity to go with it - that's your escape valve, not your oxygen supply.
If you play well, game select well, and don't tilt, you'll have more years like this than bad ones. But you'll also get bad ones where you can't hit a single board for seemingly 9 months, every big pot you play you get it in with smashing equity and lose in unlikely ways, etc.
Keeping your head above water during these times means knowing how much ev you're making by effectively targeting and adjusting to their weaknesses and just getting back on the horse of discipline.
But, you will hit a wall. Some live players don't need to hit a wall early to make it long-term; but others are cursed by going on extended, lucky runs early in their career, setting bad expectations and not learning to cope with pressures. Like bubble-wrapping your kid.
A good majority of my hands will be a "fold pre" for sure. I will limp with hands like QQ64, AT73dd just A7dd, etc. Use this for reference: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/38/om...Like I said, I play exploitative. Sometimes I'll call flops with the naked ace if the flush draw is on the board just to bluff a future street because I
Exploitative is the way to play in live games - feel like a lot of players hurt themselves with solvers overanalyzing and wonder why they aren't making much money. You're killing it so keep doing what you're doing - I don't think you can draw conclusions as to long term winrates given how few hands you've played and the nature of PLO, but it seems clear you have a significant edge and have been printing money thus far.
Not sure what you are asking but learn pre-flop.
honestly i think one of the big concerns not mentioned here is the volatility of player pools and the tendency for good PLO games to dry up. not sure where you're based or how many options you have, but it sounds like you were able to consistently sit in very soft games for a year, that won't always happen.
I’ve read this post twice and can’t find the question lol?
Seems like the question was basically…these are my first 2000 hours of poker as a pro, would it be crazy to expect to stack up multiple years of similar results?
Winning at 17bb/hr in live PLO is sustainable, especially at these stakes.
10bb/hr should be the baseline for anyone playing profitably and puts it any decent amount of study
20+ is the goal and very achievable at most stakes minus the absolute toughest 10/25 - 25/50 lineups.
Seems like the question was basically…these are my first 2000 hours of poker as a pro, would it be crazy to expect to stack up multiple years of similar results?
Yes this was what I was looking for. Didn't realize I never actually asked in my OP lol.
Winning at 17bb/hr in live PLO is sustainable, especially at these stakes.
10bb/hr should be the baseline for anyone playing profitably and puts it any decent amount of study
20+ is the goal and very achievable at most stakes minus the absolute toughest 10/25 - 25/50 lineups.
This is my current bb/hr from the places I play at that do 2/2 with $10 straddle. The main places I play now. I was thinking it wasn't sustainable but I'm glad to hear that it can be possible long term.
honestly i think one of the big concerns not mentioned here is the volatility of player pools and the tendency for good PLO games to dry up. not sure where you're based or how many options you have, but it sounds like you were able to consistently sit in very soft games for a year, that won't always happen.
Great comment! I'd add you really need to be within driving distance of several clubs/casinos with games or be very prepared for the games to dry up. That said there is something about PLO that makes it more attractive to the gamblers than other games and it seems to be expanding in my area (at this level) with about four to six games within a 90 minute drive (most within an hours drive) all in different directions.
