2/4: Charging Opponent with Aces in a 3bet Pot

This villain is well-known to you. Just bet as much on the river as you think he'll call.

Tight villain 3bets from position, I need a better reason than 'I didn't 4bet before' to fail to 4bet AA. Seems like a trivial 4bet bet, also if you think he folds a huge portion of his range to a 4bet, you should be looking to 4bet with a wide range.

River I make it 2/3rds and fold to a raise. I think we're underrepped enough he looks us up with 2nd pair.

This is no Bueno that the pot is this small

Live players rarely folds to 4bet, easiest 4bet ever, 120-150 is good.
Check/raise flop
Bet/fold river.

cr the flop big, bet a little more on the turn, and jam the river.

by big i mean really big, because ive seen anyone fold an overpair on the flop in my life. people always convince themselves you have a worse overpair.

i dont blame you for not 4 betting. i dont think people would call my 4bets either if i never do it.

this also illustrates why playing balanced live is dumb. because people dont care that your range should be weak when you c/c flop, they slow down anyway on perceived bad cards. villain probably thinks the Q is a bad card for his JJ or even KK (because QQ got there).

as played id bet whatever you think KK will call. 2/3 pot is probably about right. fold to a raise bc he has quads but that should basically never happen

I don't know about live statistics in general, but when I 4bet, people fold I think between 1/2 and 2/3 of the time. This guy is going to fold much more because he's calm, doesn't have ego problems, and knows me. I expect AK and JJ to go away, and I wouldn't be shocked of QQ hits the muck as well. So if I 4bet here, most likely I win 40€.

It might be player-specific; maybe if you 4bet, people usually don't fold. It's live, so appearance matters.

Yeah, if I had A♥6♥ here or K♠Q♥ or even A♦J♦ then 4bet would be the play. Or even if it doesn't have a blocker, just 6♥6♦ could probably 4bet profitably here. But not this hand!

Raising the Flop isn't a play I considered during the hand, but yeah that might better than what I did because he could reason that I want to protect a small overpair.

I don't know about him being so afraid of exactly QQ after the Turn that he doesn't bet KK; when I got to the River this way, I was assuming AK, TT, and JJ are the most likely hands.

(And agree about balance; there are about 5 players that I try to balance against, and vs. everyone else I just play as exploitative as possible.)

So everyone is telling you to 4bet preflop, which I agree with. But you also missed a check-raise on the flop. This is an ideal flop to check-raise because you’re still ahead of all his TT+ and this looks like it shouldn’t have hit you.

If this guy is actually folding everything other than KK/AA to a 4bet, open up your 4bet range relentlessly until he adjusts

This only works for someone who has a 3-betting range wider than QQ+/AK.

Otherwise, you'll just be owning yourself.

Vs an opponent who 3bs tight and the population tends to overcall tremendously at live low stakes, not 4bing is a big mistake. As played once you get to a mundane flop that improves no one's range and we know his 3b range is tight you should put in a raise. You basically played the smallest pot possible against someone that might of had a big PP and would play for stacks. Think you misplayed this very badly.

Guys if you want to convince me that I should have 4bet, you have to address the argument I've made for why I think I.... Just repeating the statement that I've already responded to without adding anything isn't going to be persuasive. (Unrelated to the x/r suggestion for the Flop, which I think I agree with.)

I'm with NOM, and I don't mind the lack of 4!, even OOP. You're closing the action, and there's potentially 151.5 bb to get here.

From your assessment of V's range (35 combos, taking into account H's hand), V folds 22 of those and calls (or 5!'s) 13 on a H 4! H is an 83/17 favorite against the whole range. H wins 11.5 bb on those 63% that fold. And is an 80/20-ish favorite against the 13 continuing combos. For me, while acknowledging +11.5bb is a good result, I'm greedy enough to want the rest.

I like the flop x-r idea---especially if you think they won't fold---but I wonder whether what V'd think of you donking flop large (~pot) instead, if they might fold to a x-raise?

Have to bet turn, OOP vs this V type. "Check back overpair for pot control," was expected not so long ago, and that's disastrous for H in this situation. Bet river AP whatever you think gets called, as stated before.

We got a different pool, the players I play with only a very few can fold to a 4bet.
They call 4bets with their whole 3bet range unless it's gigantic (5x+).

You don't know anything about his 3bet/fold to 4bet range. It's pure supposition. Supposition is insufficient to deviate widely from standard play. Standard play is very strongly inclined to raise with AA preflop in this situation.

To make your case, you needed to say "well here is his 3bet range and here is what he continues with when I 4bet" where his range is really wide and his continuation range is really narrow (and maybe also go and do the work to demonstrate that flatting has more EV overall). But you don't make any reference to his ranges because you don't have enough information, all you know is he's tight and you didn't 4bet the guy yet, neither of which supports your play.

TL;DR You're getting pushback because you're deviating broadly from preferred strategy based on feels.

We're getting snagged up in preflop, but it's important: if you think the player is tight and 3bets tight, then this is an absolutely ideal situation because his range is already strong so he's not folding much.

If you think he 3bets wide and calls wide the that's also great.

You seem to be suggesting that he's going to fold most of his 3betting range - in other words suggesting that he is going to 3bet wide but fold most of that range. That's quite a specific read (and if true, would indeed lead to the obvious adjustment being to 4bet wider yourself).

Either way 4betting is going to be by far the best play, particularly as you're out of position and just want to front-load the pot as much as possible now.

That becomes apparent by the river where you have AA having faced aggression from a tight player but somehow the pot is 160 when you started with 600 (the flop check -raise was definitely a good option). Now with your passive line you can have Qx so often that a river check-raise will surely fold out almost anything worse but doesn't get better to fold. Same goes for a massive bet. Probably just go 2/3 or so and hope you get looked up by KK/JJ/TT

The difficulty with your argument is if he folds as much as you assume he will fold why if it is just you two don't you always four bet until he adjusts? Since you do not do this but clearly are aware and intelligent enough to realize the math what your actions show is when money is at stake you do not believe your read on this player enough to make the bluff raise. Since you are not willing to believe your read enough to take advantage of it why should you believe it when it allows opponent to get proper odds to set mine?

Well, I did say that! I said in the OP

and in the post you quoted

i.e., I think his continuing range is probably QQ+ and maybe KK+.

I skipped the argument for why calling is then higher EV -- I mean it's 12 combinations of 46 (not counting AA and counting the "maybes" (QJs+, AQo) as half in the 3bet range), so even if we win 2x as much in the 12/46 ≈ 26% of times we get called, we're still down EV. I mean surely if Villain folds three quarters of their range, which we dominate, to a 4bet, then 4betting is not good, that step seemed trivial.

Sure, but you're making it sound as if standard play is independent of ranges, which is not true. GTO gives you a 4bet range, but this 4bet range is based on your opponent having a very specific 3bet (& conitnue-when-4betted) range, namely again the GTO range. So, yeah my range is an assumption, but so is the GTO range, and we know the GTO range isn't actually a very good assumption for the typical live player at all. I really don't think his actual range is closer to the GTO range than the the range I've given him.

Yeah, I agree with that. I should 4bet bluff more. Historically whenever I've done it (usually against the pros because I know they're disciplined), it worked basically every time.

You made a totally fair rebuttal to my comment, I don't think you know his 3bet/fold range though because you said you've never 4bet him before and it takes many many hours to gather that kind of data. That said, if you've profiled the guy and are happy with your assessment...you were there and I wasn't.

How big do you usually make your 4-bets? Or to use a hypothetical, how much would you 4-bet against this tight villain in this spot if you were to 4-bet (again just a hypothetical)?

Sounds like you decided to win the minimum in AA vs. KK situation. Can't blame you, as villain sure sounds like a nice guy!