1-2: Is a river value bet too thin here with top two on a coordinated runout?

Yeah, we make our money at low stakes by relentlessly betting for value. I'm going 60 here. Easy fold to a raise.

Grunch:

PRE - Haven't read past the first post, but I'll be surprised if someone doesn't say you shouldn't limp in with K5s from the SB.

I don't hate it with a whale limping in from MP, but I really don't love it when we'll have the worst relative position to the whale post-flop. I'm already dreading the scenario in which we flop well, action checks to him, he bets, and we have to decide if we want to raise or invite the other two to come along by flatting.

BTW - you said 5 ways to the flop, but I count four - you, BB, UTG straddle, and whale. That jives with the $20 pot on the flop.

FLOP - I like the donk. Better than going for a check-raise. Not sure about the sizing when we're multi-way with top-and-bottom pair. Seems like we could probably go $5 to 1/2 pot at the absolute most, and avoid value-owning ourselves too often.

When you pot it on a wet, K-high flop, you're funneling opponents into calling with better value, good draws, and KX with a kicker that's probably going to be better than yours, if not now, at least by the river, if they keep calling.

TURN - I think we should slow down and check here on the Jd. Yes, it adds a BDFD, but I'd be more concerned about someone having KJ. Occasionally someone shows up with 66 or a "I'll flip this goddam table over" K6.

As played, if you're going to bet, I think you should either go much smaller, or much bigger. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to pot it on the flop and then bet the same amount on the turn, so I guess we should either check or pot it again.

This $50 into $80 sizing doesn't do much other than give opponents a right-enough price to continue with all their decent draws and KX that can make a better 2P on a lot of rivers. Maybe we can expect KJ to raise, but maybe not, so we're setting ourselves up for a difficult river decision.

RIVER - Never mind what I just said. Our decision just got a whole lot easier. Check, and pray he checks back. Maybe call if he bets less than $90. Anything more than that, I'd LOL-fold, because every conceivable draw just got there, and we beat nothing that bets the river for more than 1/2 pot.

Now off to read the rest...

This is surprising to me. If we bet 1/3 pot, what hands do you think call when the turn Jd brings in KJ, and the river 9d brings in the flush, 87, QT, and K9?

We potted it on the flop and bet 2/3 pot on the turn. Hard to think a bet gets looked up by KQ, KT, 65, or just some random BS combo of KX. Doubtful V bets a worse hand for value or bluffs if we just check it to him, so there's not much risk of being bluffed off the best hand.

I get that we can bet and fold to a raise, but in order for b/f to be higher EV than c/f, a bet has to be able to get called by worse.

Maybe if our read is right, and V is super-sticky, we can target KQ and KT, but that's a pretty narrow range. V flatted in the BB, not closing the action. He could show up here with a lot of better 2P and some draws that came in, and he'd have to be REALLY loose to call with just a weak top pair.

Hard to see too many backdoor flushes making it here with the pot-size bet on the flop though. Would definitely be worried about the 16 combos of 87 and the KJ/K9 that could conceivably get here. I doubt it is much of a mistake either way.

If you've pegged a player as not bluffing much then targeting worse Kx with a b/f with a small size at first seems a no-brainer, especially as there aren't many natural bluffs on this runout and KJ likely raises turn.

The other way of looking at the hand is whether you're ever check-calling v worse value. You might be only beating KQ or a 65 that didn't raise flop, so probably should x-fold, in this case, depending on size (plus BB might squeeze with KQ preflop).

The more I consider it, there are as many, if not more, better value combos in BB's range (all the 87, some QT and some back-door diamonds, K9), so maybe x-fold is best unless you think BB is calling preflop with all Kx (K2o etc) and doesn't like to give up on TP or just gets sticky with A6 etc.

River call small bet fold to big bet.

Sounds right.

I have no respect for people that just call along. You can’t range them logically because they could show up with a pair of sevens. I think you continue the story and bet 100 here.

When you say no bluffing tendencies, it still means villain could be overvaluing a hand that you beat. A low stakes rec may be different in my mind than what you picture, but I don’t think you look for monsters under the bed.

With the kind of villain you describe, I think you keep the pressure on. Obviously, a raise now means you’re beat, but a call doesn’t necessarily mean that. You can’t just go through the combos, you have to think outside the box, because not many responses are GTO at 1/2.

i like 20-25 otr tbh. i think 60 is too much and i think expecting him to show up with an underpair is too optimistic