1/2, $500 deep: TPTK gets donked into on turn
$1/$2, $500 eff stacks. I’m on the BTN with A♦K♦.
LJ opens $10, HJ calls, I bump it up to $40. Both call.
Flop ($120): K♠J♥️J♣
Checks to me… I bet a super GTO $35.
Both call.
Turn ($225): T♠
LJ wakes up and donks $175 into both of us. HJ folds. I stare at my shiny red AK like it’s gonna grow another diamond, sigh, and fold.
He shows nothing. Because I didn’t ask.
⸻
Thoughts? Is my flop bet just laughably small here in a 3-way pot?
9 Replies
i think its slightly too big 3 ways tbh. is fine though imo u r trying to force them to continue with underpairs / gutters
I like the way you played this hand. I think you ran into AQ worried about a full house or a jack suddenly realizing they might get outdrawn. It could be 3Tens or something, but I think you’re behind. If a player can launch a big bluff into this board, I might be looking for another game.
I like the turn fold. I probably go higher on the flop. I seem to be diverging from the pack on whether we should be sizing up or down on boards like this; seems to me we can/should go bigger.
I like the turn fold. I probably go higher on the flop. I seem to be diverging from the pack on whether we should be sizing up or down on boards like this; seems to me we can/should go bigger.
I mean.. we’re just targeting worse Kx and some straight draws if we go bigger on this texture and narrows their ranges dramatically right?
its hard because u are playing vs people that dont really know or care about theory but both ranges are supposed to be much tighter than normal call 3bet ranges because its a squeeze and there are 2 of them so mdf gets shared. its not actually clear to me that we can range bet here into both (i do see solver cbetting range for 20% vs both ranges independently of one another but combined they have trips+ 15ish % of the time as opposed to around 6-7 in hu sims). am using 500z solve on gtowizard if u want to take a look
meanwhile if ep opens and it folds to the button and u 3bet his range is much wider pre and hes got trips+ only 6% of the time and its mixing b20 and b33. my guess is if you wanted to a find a size to bet range vs into 2 itd be like 10-15% of pot?
is all just theory and probably has minimal applicability to your game but you have a hand that wants like 1.5ish streets of value maybe. i could be talked into checking being the best option both because people will play poorly vs it and just to avoid overplaying our hand. it doesn't seem obvious to me that flop is the place to open the action / get one of our streets of value if we're going to bet super tiny esp while you block a king (our primary value target) and an ace to a lesser extent (AQ / ATss are the plausible straight draws from pre)
you do have the best suit though
Semi-grunch (I couldn't help seeing Submersible's first sentence, and can't make myself forget it):
PRE - seems pretty standard.
FLOP - Seems okay to me. I suppose we could debate going a little smaller or a little bigger, and why, but I think $35 into $120 is in the right neighborhood.
The only thing I'd be "worried" about here is someone showing up with Jx. If we bet much bigger, it's hard to get called by anything that isn't Kx or Jx.
TURN - my first thought is this is a strange spot to donk for a large size into two people when you bet the flop and they both call.
Obviously we could have some much stronger hands here, like AQ or a boat, or even just trips. And this seems like a super-under-bluffed scenario, unless maybe V thinks he's making some sort of block bet after he picks up the BDFD.
If we know V to be capable of taking this line with a semi-bluff or worse for value, like KQ, especially if we think he's going to check river when his spades miss, maybe we can rationalize a call, but I think mostly we should just fold.
I mean.. we’re just targeting worse Kx and some straight draws if we go bigger on this texture and narrows their ranges dramatically right?
In theory, yes, if we bet bigger, we're funneling their range into having more value, fewer draws.
In practice, it's 1/2, so you see opponents who are less price-sensitive than they should be with a draw, or who get married to a good starting hand and simply can't fold to a single bet, even when it's larger. You might see someone show up on the turn with some PP like 77-TT. Betting bigger to extract more value from bad opponents is a low stakes exploit.
So, while I agree with Submersible and others who say we "should" bet small, assuming we bet at all rather than checking back, I think an argument can be made that we can go bigger if or when we believe our opponents are going to be sticky with their draws, PP's, or worse Kx.
It's also possible this could just be some random $hlt, like someone who doesn't raise pre with AK, then gets completely lost post-flop, and accidentally turns their hand into a bluff on a scary turn. It doesn't make any sense, but it happens at some frequency.
I don't want to make a bigger deal out of it than it should be, but V's donk size on the turn does strike me as odd. If he's terrible enough to do this with a draw, or a worse value hand, or some other combo of AK, I'd think he'd use a smaller size, reflecting the fact that he's not sure what he's doing or why, and doesn't want to get bet or raised off what he thinks may be the best hand.
At the same time, if he turned a boat, I'd think he'd be more likely to slow play by checking again, or donking for a smaller size. His sizing really looks like AQ that just wants to take it down before a spade rolls off, or another A or Q comes out and he ends up chopping.
Part of me thinks we could make a play by repping a boat, but I don't think we should try it at 1/2 when V donks for a size that doesn't indicate he's likely to find the fold button if we were to raise.
As for your flop sizing - to whatever extent your bet size is off, I don't think you're off by more than $5 at these stakes. Maybe you could make it $30 or $40. Your $35 is just splitting the baby, and I wouldn't worry about it.
