5-card double-board bomb pot turn all-in decision
On turn we have 16 outs on one board (to win outright) and 10 outs on the second board (to win outright)
HU situation. What's our equity vs a turn all-in bet? I'm interested in how chopping frequency effects EV
Anybody know or care to guess how to figure this out?
*This is NOT pot-limit but rather no-limit so overbets are in play (in fact i faced one in this spot two days ago!)
6 Replies
There are 40 unseen cards. Assuming both boards aren't fighting for the same outs:
- Win both: 16/40 * 10/39 = 10.26%
- Lose both: 24/40 * 29/39 = 44.62%
- Chop = 1 - win both - lose both = 45.12%
Equity = Win% + 1/2 Chop% = 10.26% + 1/2 * 44.62% = 32.57%
So I guess you could fold to a pot-sized shove if they aren't bluffing.
Your equity gets a bit worse if there's some overlap for your outs on each board.
There are 40 unseen cards. Assuming both boards aren't fighting for the same outs:
- Win both: 16/40 * 10/39 = 10.26%
- Lose both: 24/40 * 29/39 = 44.62%
- Chop = 1 - win both - lose both = 45.12%
Equity = Win% + 1/2 Chop% = 10.26% + 1/2 * 44.62% = 32.57%
So I guess you could fold to a pot-sized shove if they aren't bluffing.
Your equity gets a bit worse if there's some overlap for your outs on each board.
Thank you.
Edit: had a question but figured it out
There are 40 unseen cards. Assuming both boards aren't fighting for the same outs:
- Win both: 16/40 * 10/39 = 10.26%
- Lose both: 24/40 * 29/39 = 44.62%
- Chop = 1 - win both - lose both = 45.12%
Equity = Win% + 1/2 Chop% = 10.26% + 1/2 * 44.62% = 32.57%
So I guess you could fold to a pot-sized shove if they aren't bluffing.
Your equity gets a bit worse if there's some overlap for your outs on each board.
OK not understanding something here. If we have 16 outs on ONE BOARD (according to Equilab - hold'em equity calculator) our equity is over 35%, and way higher if I put in a couple of dead cards (from my 5 card hand)
How is it that we have worse odds than that in this scenario with two boards? Is it bc there are more dead cards?
@ Tombos: Isn't it 39 unseen cards? 52 - 5 [in our hand] - 8 [on the two boards] 52-5-8=39
@Fulzgold: you said you had 16 on one board but only 10 on the other, so you have to average those (overlap plays a role)
@ Tombos: Isn't it 39 unseen cards? 52 - 5 [in our hand] - 8 [on the two boards] 52-5-8=39
@Fulzgold: you said you had 16 on one board but only 10 on the other, so you have to average those (overlap plays a role)
Good point.
Oh yeah my bad, I thought it was regular PLO missed the 5-card.
That slightly improves your chances:
- Win both: 16/39 * 10/38 = 10.80%
- Lose both: 23/39 * 28/38 = 43.45%
- Chop = 1 - win both - lose both = 45.75%
- Equity = 33.67%
