[2-4] Bet sizing for River bet with Full House
In this hand, I'm in the BB with A♦ 2♠, and Villain is a very weak live player who limps most hands, plays passively, rarely bluffs and especially not as a raise. I didn't write down stack sizes for this hand but it doesn't really matter, you can assume they're all around 400.
Preflop Action: Lojack limps, CO (Villain) limps, SB limps, Hero checks.
I never squeeze with crappy Aces because I'm afraid to be dominated when I get called, so I just take my free Flop.
Flop (16€😉: A♣ 4♣ 2♣
SB checks, Hero bets 10, LJ folds, Villain calls, SB folds.
I don't know if you're supposed to lead on this Flop, but there is no strong player in this hand so I don't think it matters. I mean it's a limped flop, I don't really care about range advantage here. If I check I think there's a good chance that it checks through, and even if i get to check-raise, there's a good chance that's the end of the hand. So leading seems better. And I think you can lead on the larger side because of absolute sizing; this bet doesn't look like it's big, even though it's 60% in a 4-way pot. (Maybe even larger is better?)
Turn (36€😉: K♦
Hero bets 24, Villain calls.
River (84€😉: A♦
Hero ???
On these hands where I value bet three times, I often don't know how to choose my River sizing. (Didn't really consider checking here against a passive player.) You could reason that Villain likely has the Ace, and so bet large since he's unlikely to fold trips here (or is he, given that the flush is still possible)? You could also argue for a small sizing so that a flush raises you (but how often does Villain have the flush)? If you bet large, what is large, do you go 70 or 110 or 150?
6 Replies
Jam - I feel like Ax or flush is calling a jam
and anything else is not even calling a pot sized bet
I don't like a small bet here or check, especially vs a passive player. You're range is pretty uncapped, and pretty strong too. Even poor players know that the BB has a wide range in a limped pot. And a lot of the stuff you beat should fold to a CR anyway. I know this isn't a good player, but bet calling like AT here would be extremely bad. Also, low stakes players tend to check back the river too much, not bet it too often.
As a rule, I like to bet small to induce a raise when there's also a chance the small bet gets hero called by a weak hand. V shouldn't really have a lot of weak hands here and you've shown a lot of strength betting into all these people on a scary board.
So it's a big bet. How big is going to depend a lot on your read. Is this person so bad they will never fold any flush?
We want to get called by flushes, trips and 44, 22 and maybe 53. However, if this person is incapable of folding flushes, you can just go all in. I wouldn't expect even a bad player to call a shove with just an A here. OTOH there are 4 combos of worse full houses that will call anything.
So it comes down to something like, how many flush combos they have and how much they will call with a flush vs. how many A combos they have and how much they will call with an A.
I think most players can find folds in this situation even with bad flushes if you just go all in, so generally I'd bet more like 75 hoping to get the calls from Aces. Worse full houses still probably raise. However, the worse the player is the bigger you can go.
Probably go big.
How big is the question. Maybe 1.5x-2x.
Turn probably bigger.
Reveal: I overbet, 100€ (into an 84€ pot). Didn't get a call, and it didn't seem like a hard decision, so Villain probably just didn't have the Ace, definitely not the flush.
