PAHWM - AA facing flop x/r from ABC tag-fish
1/3, $100-$500 BI, 9-handed. Parx Philly. Friday Night. Rake is 10% up to $5 with a $2 promo drop. High hand promo is $500 every 1/2 hour. Bad Beat jackpot is whatever it is, over $100k.
Reads:
V is a middle-aged male, Russian or Eastern European. He bought in for a short stack, maybe $200. He hasn't been at the table very long, but my impression is that he's sort of TAG-fishy.
He doesn't get OOL pre, mostly folds junk and only gets involved with the "right" hands. Doesn't bluff often enough. Plays somewhat face-up and ABC-ish. No creativity. Likely 3B range is just AA/KK.
One prior hand history that may be worth mentioning, from a few orbits before this hand - he defended his BB with AJ, flopped Broadway in a multi-way pot, then donked turn for a smallish size on a brick when the flop checked through, got two callers, and barreled river on a total brick, but again for a somewhat smallish size, like 60% pot.
The callers had J9 for the 2nd nuts, and 66 for a turned set (that was me, the PFR - figured I was up against 2P and couldn't find the fold).
I want to say he's starting this hand with around $400-$500, after dragging the pot described above.
H is early 50's, white, probably a LAG image, starting this hand around $600-$700.
OTTH:
One limp. H sees AA (don't remember the suits) in the CO and opens to $20. Folds to V who defends in the BB. Limper folds, and we're heads up to the flop.
FLOP ($40) - K97rb.
I think the suits of my AA matched two of the suits on board, if anyone is thinking about BDFD's on later streets.
V x's. H $20. V x/r's to $80.
H?
Fold. Very short PAHWM. No big draws available, and described V rarely does this with an 8-out draw. This is generally 2p or a set.
Fold. Very short PAHWM. No big draws available, and described V rarely does this with an 8-out draw. This is generally 2p or a set.
C'mon. You know I wouldn't post it if I folded flop.
Ordinarily, I'd say a flop x/r is 2P or a set, but this board is so static, I figured a lot of opponents would just check-call flop and spring their trap on the turn if a BD draw appears.
Like you rightly point out, there are no big draws available, so it's not like 2P or a set has to worry about scary turns, unless he thinks I'm showing up with T8s or 86s, or that I'd be c-betting QJ or JT.
I would show up with T8s or 86s, and would c-bet QJ and JT, but he doesn't know that.
Plus, I was somewhat discounting he'd show up with any 2P combo here. I didn't think he'd be getting involved with K7 or 97, and wasn't sure how often he defends his BB with K9.
I'd have folded all my bluffs, and TT-QQ, and maybe even KQ. Hard to fold AA, un-blocking top pair.
I don’t mind calling once with the plan to fold if Villain sizes up on turn.
I don’t expect to see bluffs here often but I think some Villains will XR strong top pairs here a percentage of the time. I would expect these hands to slow down on the turn.
I think you are right that sets trap here a lot. The big checkraise size doesn’t feel like a set either.
That said, if he bombs the turn, he probably just has a set or K9.
K9s, K7s and 97s are generally folded to 7x by fishy TAGs preflop. Occasionally these player types do become a little frustrated by active players from LP stealing their blinds and get stubborn. Point is that you need Villain to have a relatively wide range and there's no suggestion he's letting-loose with QJs or JTs (even though he probably should).
the right play is probably to just fold the flop. i dont know if i could do it though. i really dont want to end up all in with this hand by the river.
usually guys like this minraise if they have a worse hand than yours and feel like CRing.
if i was in villians shoes i would not CR this flop light. against a wide PFR range theres just too many ways for you to have hit it.
Ordinarily, I'd say a flop x/r is 2P or a set, but this board is so static, I figured a lot of opponents would just check-call flop and spring their trap on the turn if a BD draw appears. Like you rightly point out, there are no big draws available, so it's not like 2P or a set has to worry about scary turns
I mean, you're right in far as how many 2+2ers would play it, but ascribing that to a TAG-fish is kind of mirror-imaging. What hands do you see him playing this way? AK also doesn't need to worry about scary turns, by the logic above.
This is generally a bad board to c/r, so it might be a good one to do it as a bluff, but we think this guy is ABC. For an ABC player, you'd only c/r here if you have a hand that you want to set up playing for stacks, or you have some cheese like 79 and you're worried about getting counterfeited.
Because of the occasional WTF factor and the "maybe my reads are off because I've only been observing him for a while" factor, I might call once and re-eval OTT, but that's the last money I'd be putting in unimproved without a massive tell.
I mean, you're right in far as how many 2+2ers would play it, but ascribing that to a TAG-fish is kind of mirror-imaging. What hands do you see him playing this way? AK also doesn't need to worry about scary turns, by the logic above.This is generally a bad board to c/r, so it might be a good one to do it as a bluff, but we think this guy is ABC. For an ABC player, you'd onl
As I was thinking about this hand after I played it, I was trying to think about how face up V may or may not be. Like, if he's check-raising 2P or a set here, on this dry as toast board, that's pretty face up.
I was also thinking about the prior hand, where he flopped the nuts. I wonder if he was going for a check-raise in that hand. But that one was multi-way, with more opponents behind him who could bet. Here, we're heads-up, so it's just me, but as the PFR, I'm going to be c-betting K-high flops a ton.
In game, I was thinking he wouldn't have many 2P combos here, and while he could certainly have 99 or 77, I could have KK, so would he really start blasting off on the flop?
What if he's one of those low-stakes recs who just flat call in the blinds with AK, hoping to flop TPTK before he starts blasting off, figuring it's hard for me to have KK or AA.
In game, I was giving him all the combos of AK, and only partials of sets or 2P, so I decided to call.
The turn was a pretty interesting card.
TURN ($200) K97 9, adding a BDFD, but I have the ace of that suit.
V pretty quickly bets $120, like he wasn't thinking about it, and knew what he was going to do before the turn was dealt.
Hero?
IMO this turn card makes your decision an easy call. He was basically only beating you with sets, and the 9 shrinks his value combos a bunch. I don’t feel like the snap bet here is indicative of a hand with a 9 in it. Feels like AK to me or maybe some completely random air
On this turn card, facing a bet that is not massive, and with something of a live tell, I am comfortable with calling one more street. Continuing to proceed with caution on the river. Definitely do not want to see a river jam here. Probably going to pay off against something in the halfpot range.
Think his main value hand on the flop is two pair (sets slowplay [esp with high hand promo] or raise smaller) and since he should only have suited combos of K9 K7 and 97, he no longer has very many value hands that are better than AA. Also all of his value hands that are better than AA are full houses now.
In game, I was giving him all the combos of AK, and only partials of sets or 2P, so I decided to call.
The turn was a pretty interesting card.
TURN ($200) K97 9, adding a BDFD, but I have the ace of that suit.
V pretty quickly bets $120, like he wasn't thinking about it, and knew what he was going to do before the turn was dealt.
Hero?
I thought V had K9, and pretty much only K9 here. (Edit, on the flop. But ok, let's give them 99/77 too. Is H really happy here?)
Don't mind the flop call, but this is a lolfold for me. Ask V to show, as everyone's laughing at the board pair?
For the love of Jesus even tight players can find a c/r with a king on this flop
yeah i mean if you fold here (the flop) you have no chance
to put things in perspective, b/c the flop looks like its worth 4-5 bb, and b/f here is idk 85% of the time if you are playing checks on the flop and 90+% if you pure cbet. it's just way too much of a deviation vs anyone let alone a guy you have 3 orbits with
would obviously call the turn too which also appears to be worth around 4-5 bb
just post the entire hh instead of pahwm format. i dont really understand why anyone would choose to do that, it just makes people have to return to the thread multiple times, even more so when most of the decisions are trivial
i say this alot and it wins me many friends every time, but if you were capable of routinely outperforming the computer in every node, you would be at high stakes not low stakes.
would call this down after the 9 pairs
he has a big K here a lot more than nuts
but I am a station
Hero does call.
River ($440) K979 2, no flush.
V pretty quickly bets $150. He has about $200 left behind.
Hero?
id put the rest in i guess
just hard for me to imagine a better hand doing this ott / river (particularly the river) sizing wise. would ordinarily play the river as a call or fold facing x/r b b but like spr is .75 otr and he blocks a brick lol
Yeah on paper should probably jam here but in game I think I would end up calling.
I think it’s hard to get called by worse here since you look so strong. And I have seen players take ridiculous sizing schemes like this with a full house before.
It certainly looks like you have the best hand though.
...I think itÂ’s hard to get called by worse here since you look so strong. And I have seen players take ridiculous sizing schemes like this with a full house before...
Unknowns at 1/3, who are only 3! AA/KK out of the blinds, are really x-raising a 1/2 pot cbet with AK or any Kx on K97r? If they're passive enough to not 3! AK pf, are they then x-raising it on that flop? Then barreling off turn 60% and river (for lol 33%) when the board pairs? With just a King?
(Not meaning to call out you, Dan; this is just something I've been mulling for a bit, and I really agree with your sizing point. Hence the quote.)
It is ridiculous sizing, agreed. I've seen presumed LP unknowns do that too with big value. (Do they think H will fold to a 75% river bet, but will call 1/3? Or better yet, induce a shove from H?)
I don't call that size turn bet, because I know V should be shoving river for ~75% pot if I do, and I shouldn't be losing 190 bigs to a LP bombing away, just because I haz Aces. The LP part of Doc's read is key for me here. But I don't think this is a good calldown against the general 1/3 population either. Most villains aren't going to call OOP, then go x-r/bet/bet with air or Kings-up here. Online, or in SolverLand, sure. But they're also 3!'ing a lot more out of the blinds with the hands we're hoping V has here, right?
Unknowns at 1/3, who are only 3! AA/KK out of the blinds, are really x-raising a 1/2 pot cbet with AK or any Kx on K97r? If they're passive enough to not 3! AK pf, are they then x-raising it on that flop? Then barreling off turn 60% and river (for lol 33%) when the board pairs? With just a King? (Not meaning to call out you, Dan; this is just something I've been mulling for
There is definitely a certain type of rec player who will checkraise TPGK on the flop. There is also a certain type of rec player who will not 3bet pre with AK. How much of an overlap is there on the Venn diagram of these two players? I'm not as sure about that.
IME players are fairly likely to overplay their one pair hands if they underplay them post-flop. Obviously there are OMC types who are just going to play passively the whole way to the river too. But then you have a type of player who knows AK is a premium hand but wants to wait to make sure he hits with it before piling money in.
As far as the betting on later streets goes, I think once a Villain checkraises flop with TP, they often don't know how to slow down and just start monkey-betting. The river sizing to me looks like on some level he knows that he has created too big of a pot for his hand strength.
I find there's a credible explanation for why this could be AK (6 combos) but also for why it could be 77 (3 combos), 99 (1), or K9s (2). KK (3) is less likely but also possible bc some of these nits feel like you already did the work of making the big raise so they call and disguise. I see KQ/KJs as possible but unlikely as well.
Overall it looks like about 50% likely you are ahead so I don't see the big value of raising, and would be glad to show down for less than stack.
