[2-4] Bet sizing with a flopped set on a board of low cards

If you are not willing to put at least 130 at the river in this situation, you should have folded pf. To purely set mine, you need to get back at least 15:1 to make it profitable.

Well I think I should have folded PF regardless, but you can still talk about postflop action even if the hand started with a mistake. I don't think flatting 22 on the HJ is good play, two people who can squeeze, and risk to get it set over set. But I don't think that should influence the River decision? Like that would kinda be the sunk cost fallacy.

Given your description of Villain and your own image (which I assume is relatively quiet) then betting small makes mosts sense (e.g. 100-130). Obviously you expect Villain to c-bet overpairs etc, so there's some flush draws, A5s and AK in his river range, given your sizing on the turn. I mean you could go as low as 80 to maybe get a frustrated AK to call. I like your reasoning for betting small on turn, but think you still could've gone larger, because you can assume you're not getting many river bets called, unless you can include overpairs or 65s or 54s in Villain's range at this stage in the hand.

Hey OP, what are effective stacks? If as hero I have more than 150 BB, I’m calling preflop.

If deep, I would raise more on the turn.

Around 500 (it's in the OP)

River is whatever, he shouldn't have much 87 but you can have all four combos. Spades missed, so if he's playing JJ like this maybe he calls 150 but half pot; half pot; 3/4 pot doesn't look great. Also seems super difficult for you to have air here ... realistically you probably need to be overvaluing a lot of one pair hands for JJ+ to be a profitable call, or be some 3d chess genius bluffing Kc7c on the flop and turn, so it has a another bluff combo. for the river.

Which leads me to flop. I don't think half pot is good here. You imply that you might be firing at the flop a lot when it checks to you ... but is that true?
I don't think many people bluff much here. 77-JJ, 6x, 5x, 4x, and flush draws but when you combine that with an okay preflop range that is very value heavy and then AK can often just shrug and fold for even a third pot size.

Then turn is also half pot, but do you just fire again with JsTs? And T9/98/87 all just got a lot more equity, so again V's calling range should be weighted towards NFD and overpairs.
BDFD clubs also missed. So V has to think you are just firing with air a lot, or is generally calling lots of random overcards a lot.

I understand you started the thread with preflop being bad, but still want to know what to do now we are here ... but everything still flows from preflop and it's difficult to find the rest of the range that lets 22 bet what it'd like in a vacuum.

Maybe you can more easily get away with pot; pot; half pot, or maybe lines where you overbet turn.

I think turn sizing is quite bad. I'm just over bet bombing the turn and river and going for it against the times he check calls overpairs (which is reasonable) and or wants to hero call. Pf is bad too, and to the poster saying he calls with 150+bb, it's not good poker.

I'm not actually saying that I would attack the flop here. If I have a random K♠Q♥, I would probably just surrender. (I'd definitely surrender without the spade, but probably even with the spade.) But I don't think it really matters because I don't Villain analyzes this deeply. I think Villain is very unlikely to think, "well it's 4way so she can't attack this flop, therefore this bet is actually strong", and much more likely to think something simple like, "WTF no one hits this board, she's just trying to steal, I think my y A♦3♦ could be good here". So, I think the bet looking weak is kinda independent of how I would actually play the rest of my range. Which isn't to say that the Turn bet is necessary correct, maybe betting large is better. I'm just saying that my reason for the small turn bet doesn't actually depend on how much I would bluff / how I'd play the rest of my range.

I can definitely see an overpair checking, but I'd be pretty surprised if check-calls the flop rather than check-raising. I feel like most people are afraid to even slowplay sets on boards with a flushdraw, let alone overpairs. So (at least during the hand) I mostly ruled out overpairs because I thought they would raise almost every time.

Ok villains range is mainly overpairs, occasionally some busted fd some middle pairs like 77/88.
Targetting overpairs, I think we can bet 3/4 up to pot size and get calls. We can fold when villain check ship.
We might get look up light even if we ship this river repping busted draws. The more aggressive our image the more this works.

It's very villain dependent and of course sometimes we get owned when he has tt.

Betting more on the turn. V calls flop, sometimes with overpair, sometimes FD and turn bricks (unless he has 99)
I would target the ovp's and fd's since most other hands won't continue against the half pot bet. Bet full pot maybe more.

what are you putting him on when he c/c flop to this size? it looks like an overpair to me. size up the turn hes not folding it.

0 chance pre is profitable if this is what u do postflop unless you are winning something like 80% of flops seen without showdown (you are not in this situation)

your default vs an unknown should be to get all of your money in with your hand by the river with this hand

dont even mind betting smaller than this otf but turn is a massive conceptual error imo

During the hand I was thinking a mediocre pair is most likely, like A3, 67. But seems like most people think overpair, in which case yeah the Turn bet could be about Pot.

Reveal: I bet very small, actually repeat bet 50€ into 218€. (I just wanted to get a frustrated call from a crappy single pair or maybe even Ace high.) Villain instantly called and didn't show.

(All the comments telling me to bet bigger are duly noted!)