$2/$5 – River spot with JJ on a paired board, facing big river bet

You have to call with 55pc of your hands that get here roughly. You have A5s A3s and some flushes? Maybe also 99. Idk what you bet turn with. You have some higher pairs. Without the heart it's a fold. With the heart idk. Maybe you should call with this but fold QQ no heart and even KK AA no heart? As he hasn't any hands between JJ and AA himself anyway. So you rather have the h than the higher pairs? Bluffs can be lower pairs, 67cc, AhX. It's close decision

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Yes check call turn is ok holding a heart I think.

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Any reads on V? A calling station? Have you seen V bluff? How many hands have you played with him, and how wide is he opening? Does he overvalue or undervalue his hands?

For me, these spots are super hard without a read. Flying blind against a loose, passive calling station who prefers to draw to his flushes rather than bet his equity, I’m check folding the turn.

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More info on (1) your image and (2) Villain's tendencies would be useful here. The size of his river bet (90%) is notable. It's an effective value bet if he ranges you on an overpair and perceives you to be sticky. I mean if he's got it he should be targeting A high as well, so am curious as whether this sizing indicates a bluff. I mean, would be very surprised if he's value betting a worse overpair, for instance.

played fine, fold river

im not folding turn to a 1/2 pot size bet when smaller overpairs are usually w/i villians range.

check flop sometimes too

I would bet smaller otf, usually 15, and then barrel turn for 45-50.

As played flop, I am still betting turn, but not sure about the size, perhaps ~50 although it looks kind of weak-ish.

If you check, I guess you have to call V's bet, but you end up in a sort of no man's land, imo.

River, I struggle to find bluffs, but an aggressive villain could bet a middle pair for value, although perhaps going smaller (?).
Seems like a close spot.
The point raised by Bill Hickok about calling with the Jh and folding bigger pairs without h is interesting.

I don't get the turn check - he has almost no 3x, his Ax will check back the turn, lose value from worse pairs. Even if he has say KQ I think he just checks behind. I think readless on the river as played you fold.

You get calls from Ax, worse pp's - he has very few bluffs if any that will bet the turn. Are you only happy to build a pot with trips or better? You're just burning money checking the turn - hell even a hand like KQ might check turn thinking they can't fold better.

Would call river against most V’s. I assume V puts H on AK and is looking for a fold here. Obviously losing some of the time but call should be +EV.

I bet the turn -- really don't like the check unless your plan was to call a river bet, so call.

Grunch:

PRE - Seems standard.

FLOP - HU and OOP as the PFR, I mostly start by checking.

I don't hate the c-bet on this low-low-low paired board, because he's not supposed to have any 3x here, and there are only 3 combos of 55, and there are a lot of over-pairs to the board and draws we can target for value.

I'm not sure what size is best here. If we're mostly checking, then I think we can size up when we bet. The $30 seems fine. I wonder if we could even pot it, precisely because there are so many hands we can target for value.

TURN - so, it's even less likely he has 55 now, but we may need to be leery of him showing up with some 5x combo, maybe.

I think a check or smaller bet here is fine. $50 into $105 seems like a good size, although I'd be leery of opening the door for an aggro opponent to view that smaller bet size as weak, and start liberally raising with a wide range. It's somewhat read-dependent.

If V is aggro, I might check to pot control, with plans to call and evaluate river if he bets, or make a delayed double-barrel on the river if he checks back. If V is loose-passive, I might size up a little, still targeting all his over-pairs to the board, when the turn doesn't really change anything.

If we just don't know how V plays, then your 1/2 pot barrel seems fine, so long as you're able to fold if he puts in a chunky raise.

ETA - sorry, just realized we checked and V bet 1/2 pot. In that light, I think checking is mostly to induce V to start bluffing, which changes things on the river...

RIVER - Yeesh.

I think I'd just block bet for 1/3 pot here, with plans to fold if V raises. When we check and V bets big, we're in the blender.

There aren't many value hands we can beat here. Mostly just TT. Conceivably, TT might call the whole way and bet river, targeting 66-88, but this seems like overly large sizing for a very thin value bet.

When we check, I'd think a lot of V's wouldn't feel comfortable betting 85% pot with a bluff, when the front door flush draw comes in AND it's a double-paired board. If he's turning 66-88 into a bluff, for this size, that's pretty gutsy.

He could be doing this with the stiff Ah, but it's hard to find a lot of AX combos that flat a UTG open from MP pre, and decide to continue to our somewhat large flop c-bet. He'd have to be calling the flop with the intent of bluffing us out of our shoes on a heart turn or river.

When the board pairs again on the turn though, some low stakes players will get sticky with AX, thinking we also have AX, and they might be chopping. If he had AXo with the Ah, he could take this line as a bluff, figuring ace-high may not be strong enough to check back, and he can rep hearts.

Assuming he 3B's pre with AK, and AQ at some frequency, but mostly folds A6o-A8o, then his AXo combos are going to be very few, mostly AT and AJ combos, perhaps with some ace-wheel combos of A2 and A4 sprinkled in. I could see all those AX combos betting to get us off AK/AQ.

I dunno man. We have the Jh in our hand, so that makes it slightly less likely he has a flush, and he can have some bluffs when we give him some rope by checking on the river. It also makes it less likely he's doing this with AJ, but maybe that's a 3B pre, so he's got all the ATo, and some other AXo combos.

ETA, pt 2 - having typed all that without realizing we check-called turn, I think a river block-bet is even more in order now. As played, when we check and V bets 85% pot, I think it becomes more of a call, because we induced V to start a bluff with our turn check, and V may have called flop with a lot of hands that can be turned into two-street bluffs on this run-out.

I don't think it's a huge mistake to fold to this sizing. I also don't think it's a huge mistake to call. I do think it's a mistake to check river, when we could conceivably have some boats in our range (albeit, not many, as the UTG raiser). If we bet small and got raised, it's a pretty trivial fold. When we check and he bets big, we're guessing.

I don’t understand why you gave up the initiative. Villain could think his A kicker is good with fives & threes, so he took over. From his view, you could not have possibly connected with this little board & when you check turn he’s ruling out overpairs & thinks you probably have paint which he beats.

You are very detailed about what you think is villain’s range, but I think you should also consider what villain thinks of your range. The river opens the possibility that when you showed weakness, villain tried to run you off with a semi-bluff and now connected with the hearts.

I would keep betting until I got raised. Villain needs to keep reading a story of strength. As played, now the villain is telling a story of strength. He could still have ace high, but the best hand you beat is probably TT and I don’t think he does this with that hand. Fold

Things get real on the turn where most people become honest with their play. I think there’s a possibility that he folds if you bet turn, instead of making a river bet that you cannot call.

How can I bet this turn? I shouldn’t have any 5x or 3x in my range at all.

A river block bet on this texture after x calling turn is asking to get bluff raised though, no? We literally never have 5x taking this line. What story are we trying to tell?

What story were you telling with your line?

From V's perspective, your line here looks like you have ace high, or a middling over- pair that doesn't love the run-out.

If you check call turn and block river, it's really hard for V to rule out big hands like flushes and boats.

Well, you should have two combos of A3s and two of A5s, plus one combo of 55 and maybe one of 33, pretty much as V should have.
So, neither of you has a clear nut advantage, imo. Ok, maybe V has two combos of 65s, but that should be it.

On the other hand, you have a clear range advantage because you have all the premium pocket pairs, while V should be capped to the middle ones.

You bet the turn because he should have very few 5s or 3s, too, and his most likely holding is a flush draw. If that's what he has, not only did you give him control of the hand, but you let him get there. And, I still call after checking the turn, but I wouldn't check the turn.

Any reads on this player?

An MP V really shouldn't either though, right? Maybe 65s? You're 200bb deep. I wouldn't think A5s/A3s would vs a 4x UTG open. In this new world of polarized RFI ranges, you can have some wheel aces too.

(Edit, duh. V can have 1 combo each of quads. We really shouldn't. But ofc we still will. Are they really though not raising either flop or turn, 200 bb deep? With a flop spr of >20?!)

Point is, you opened, V called instead of raised, and the turn board mostly still shouldn't have hit either of you. Your range is superior. Plus there is a heart draw to deny odds to, a few underpairs to get value from: you get to bet. And enough AX in V's range that they might call/think you're trying to get them off a chop. Though don't go nuts.

I'm calling here. But I'm sticky.

H is opening 55/33 UTG for 4X? I do, but I thought that was a leak FR and 77 was about as low as we wanted to go, PP-wise?