We folding vs this river pot size bet?

I would size up on flop. The pot is relatively small so a big sizing is still small. We are betting 7 ways so our betting range is really strong. We also want to start building a pot vs a jack especially if someone limped KJ or AJ. We also want to charge hands that can stack us later like A4 or 77.

River is close. We don’t really have any straights so we are at top of range. Against most loose passives this is a pretty easy snap fold, but the QQ hand suggests this guy might understand ranges and attack capped ranges.

That said, it’s hard to find a lot of bluffs. Could he be overvaluing aces up? I doubt it. I probably fold in game.

I’m not sure what to tell you, I folded 22 preflop.

Does a 4 really bet this big? Doesn't he want to get called by a J? I am not even sure what 4s he can have... is he loose enough to limp J4s first to act? A4s and 64s are straights on the turn and might XR at some frequency. 54s makes sense. How quick did he lead out?

My gut feeling is that a set is too good to fold here. Kinda feels like he is clicking buttons in the QQ hand, so GG if he has it this time.

Easy fold - he called out of the BB so easily has all 4x combos, you can have all the 4x yet he's betting big, and there's really no plausible natural bluffs.

Grunch -

What does that prior hand history tell you or us that relates to the actual hand? The only thing I think we could infer is that V is capable of c-betting and barreling thin for value, but will give up on rivers with his non-nutted hands.

PRE - Meh. I think we could just fold 22 here, if we think someone behind us is likely to squeeze. Occasionally I might open for a raise if I think the table is over-folding to my pre-flop aggression. Calling from +2 to set-mine doesn't seem terrible, but could just be torching if we're planning to fold to a squeeze.

FLOP - I don't know what a roughly 1/2 pot bet is meant to accomplish in a 7-way pot. Either bet really small, like $5-$10, hoping to induce a raise, or pot it, hoping for a call.

The problem with this bet size in a 7-way pot is that it'll weight our opponents towards weak JX and some draws. JX will call a bigger bet, and the draws will be happy to call this smallish bet, getting good implied odds.

I'd think we'd want to funnel opponents' ranges towards JX for value, and charge their draws more to realize their equity, especially when we're likely to be playing the rest of the hand from OOP, assuming that the players who checked to us will mostly be folding when action gets back to them.

Maybe this $15 bet gets action from 5x up to 99. But if an opponent is going to call a $15 bet here, they'll probably also call a $20-$25 bet. Maybe they fold 5x-99 to a $30-$35 bet, but if so, so be it. We don't mind denying equity from those sorts of hands, when they'll stack us if they turn a higher set.

TURN - When V over-calls our flop bet, from the BB, I'd think he has a decently strong hand, at least Jx, or a draw to the nuts. The 3 brings in 64 and A4, but otherwise it's just a brick. Again, I think we should either bet small to see if V wants to raise with his nutted hands, or bet large, to get max value from the rest of V's range.

This $50 bet into an $80 pot isn't large enough or small enough to put pressure on V to do anything other than call with his entire range. Maybe he still raises with his better hands sometimes, but not often enough to make us feel confident enough to bet many rivers for value.

RIVER - Check-call, check-call, donk big has to be one of, if not the most under-bluffed line in all of poker. When we know V is capable of giving up with thin value on the river, I'd think it's even less likely he's ever bluffing or betting a worse hand for value here.

All that said, there are some worse value hands that could conceivably take this line. I could see him doing this with AJ or A5, and maybe occasionally A2 or A3. It's just hard to put him on one of those hands, when any 4 is a straight, and you bet flop and turn.

I wouldn't say we should have bet larger on flop and turn. I'd say we should either bet smaller or larger on both streets, to put pressure on our opponents to do something that will define their range, and to deny more equity than we did here.

Might be helpful to consider whether Villain would just flat turn with 64 or A4, which would mean you're losing to more than just 54. Likewise it's worth asking whether he'd overvalue A5. To me the default here is that xc-xc-b is underbluffed, as docvail suggests, so I'd be weighing this assumption against how narrow or overvalued Villain's nutted range is here. It's tough to find bluffs, too, so probably folding. Let's not forget that you were 7way to the flop.