1/2: Semibluffed $125 on flop with NFD and now I turn TP
1/2 live, $450 effective.
I’m in the SB with A♥5♥.
MP opens to $15, 2 calls (including BTN), I flat in the SB (no I’m not squeezing vs call happy players), BB flats too.
Flop ($75): Q♥9♣3♥
Checks to BTN who bets $25. I pick up on the sizing and make it $125 with the nut flush draw. Folds back to him, and he snap-calls.
Reads:
• I don’t think he has Qx — he usually folds those to a big check-raise.
• If he had 2 pair or better, I expect him to atleast think for a bit and/or jam flop to protect vs draws.
• So it feels like he’s on a draw too
Turn ($325): A♠
So now I have top pair with the nut flush draw and $400 behind.
I’m torn:
• If I jam, I fold out a lot of worse hands — possibly even worse flush draws — and only get called by better value (unlikely since he would 3b AQ pre).
• If I check, I let him realize equity for free — and may face a tough decision on rivers if some straight draws get there.
• If I block bet like $125 again, I set the price and maybe induce — but hate life if I get jammed on and have to fold my equity.
What’s the best play here? At first glance, it feels check/calling is standard but if I’m ranging him correctly, betting $125 is best. If he just calls again, we check/snap him off on brick rivers.
6 Replies
If you’re that confident about him not having a Q, I like the $125 sizing. Draws call and on the off chance he does have a Q, you can still get a call. If you get jammed on I think you’re just committed unless he’d never make that play with a draw, in that case you’ve made your life easy and probably saved yourself some money with the bet
I'd be more likely to fold pre-flop rather than call, even 200+bb deep. You just experienced first-hand how difficult it is to play a suited ace, crappy kicker when OOP.
I would fold preflop, tho being in the BB closing action would be tempting despite the large raise size.
As played you go with your read that the semi bluff has some chance of success. Were you planning to barrel a blank turn?
The reads seem to be suggesting that villain can only have a draw. Maybe KK or a set? I think GTO doesn't 3b this flop much at all and modern players don't go too wild when facing a large c/r. Are you getting reg or fish vibes from this player?
As binked, and given your read, seems logical to bet "same bet" tho you are still vulnerable to some draws if ahead.
I like your hand reading here, seems reasonable
I would rip it.
Think you’re being greedy if you’re trying to bring along worse hands now. Take the dead money. If he calls you have outs.
How did you start with 450, put in 140 and have 400 behind? You have 310 behind it's not even pot sized bet. Probably is just an all in. Or bet small like 100 to get called by flush draws and you are putting in the rest whatever.
Pre has to be 3b or fold though
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How did you start with 450, put in 140 and have 400 behind? You have 310 behind it's not even pot sized bet. Probably is just an all in. Or bet small like 100 to get called by flush draws and you are putting in the rest whatever.
Pre has to be 3b or fold though
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Oops idk how I messed that up.. I had 300 more behind.
