JJ vs SB Squeeze: Full 4-Bet EV Breakdown (Range-Based Study)
Hi, I just been analyzing my JJ hand from the CO on a 6-max table, trying to figure out the value of my 4-bet and also my all in raise on the flop.
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Here is my hand and my thoughts are below.
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GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (CO): 103 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
SB: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jd Jc
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB raises to 9.5 BB, Hero raises to 34 BB, fold, BB calls 24.5 BB
Flop : (71 BB, 2 players) 8d 9d 8s
BB checks, Hero bets 69 BB and is all-in, BB calls 66 BB and is all-in
Turn : (203 BB, 2 players) 4h
River : (203 BB, 2 players) 8c
Hero shows Jd Jc (Full House, Eights full of Jacks)
(Pre 19%, Flop 15%, Turn 5%)
BB shows Ac As (Full House, Eights full of Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 85%, Turn 95%)
BB wins 192 BB
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Villain:
3-Bet range: 10%. = 77+, A2s+, KQs, AQo+, KQo
Calling 4-bet range: 60%= TT-77, AdAh, KdKh, QdQh, JhJs, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo
Fold range= 40%,
5-bet range: 20%= AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, AKs, A9s, AKo
1. I started by assigning villain a 3-bet squeeze range even though I only had 7 hands on him I took a rought estimate of 10%= 77+, A2s+, KQs, AQo+, KQo.
2. I then estimated he folds to be about 50% of his hands against my 4-bet and continues with around 4.8% = TT-99, AdAh, KdKh, QdQh, JhJs, AQs+, Ad9d, Ah9h, AQo+, KQo some of these pocket pairs are just suited for me to select him slow playing these once in awhile.
3. I estimated his 5-bet range to be around 2% = AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, AKs, A9s, AKo, with some occasional bluffs.
Then I used EV formula to value my action of 4-betting and using this:
EV Formula:
EV = (Fold% × Reward)
+ (Call% × (Equity × TotalPot − Risk))
+ (5-bet% × −Risk)
EV = (0.4 x 15,5BB) + 0,6 x (0.63x 71BB - 31BB) + (0,2 x -31BB) = 6.2BB + 8,238BB - 6,2 = 8,238BB.
So I calculate this play to get me around +8.2BB in the long run...
I'm not really sure this is the right way to evaluate if this is the right play cause we still have the flop to play with around 69-70BB behind still.
I also think the all in on the flop is very tight, I can't see him calling me with anything worse then some flush draws with overcards which he still can make on later streets, the only hand that is worse that could call me is maybe TT and 77.
Is there anything I could have done different, please let me know your thoughts.
/lifeisariver
3 Replies
Your 4bet is too big
You have 0 bluffs with such sizing.
You're pot committed with such sizing.
Normal sizing is something like 2.2~2.5x for less than 30bb. Once over 30bb might as well shove since you're committed anyway.
Also ip, I probably flat with JJ unless I have 4bet history with villain.
Usually,iIn order for a 4bet with jj to be profitable ip here, we need villain to 3bet light then 5bship light as well.
If this isn't the case, what most likely to happen is that villain will fold all the hands that he's behind and shoving all that is better than our hand.
Of course 4betting with hands like jj is also good vs villains who 3bet light and will call 4bets. These type of ppl are aggro and fishy.
Yea, thinking about it - I'm not sure of what percentage of the players are squeezing with a 50% bluff rate at the micros from BB.
flat with JJ unless I have 4bet history
Yea, I can get behind the logic of we probably only going to called by hands that are better than us with that 3X 4bet re-raise, flatting feels like you get alot of his bluff hands to come with if villain does have that in his range (hard to answer with the sample rate), and even a small 4-bet from us would probably just lead us to get stacked by better hands. It all comes down to as you said if he has a light 3 and 5bet in his range.
I can see the call keeping being a valuable line to go.
- w/ no stats on BB, having 77-TT in 4bet call range seems hopeful. I'd only be have these in villain's range if I have some sort of read in 4bet spots
- Agree with earlier post, 4bet sizing is big
- What are you hoping he calls your shove w/ on the flop? I assume the 77-TT, that's a small part of villain's range (I don't even think they're in the range). So basically, he folds out everything you beat and calls only to crush you. I'd consider betting 1/4 pot. Some broadways fold, most call. If you're lucky, Q+ hits the turn and you might save some money.
