TPTK+NFD Facing Huge Jam 300BB+ Deep
$1/$2 NL Harrah's Atlantic City
8-handed
LJ: $300
Button (Villain): $950
SB (Hero): $630
LJ opens $12, Button calls, Hero squeezes to $70 with A♠K♦, LJ thinks and folds Button snap-calls.
Pot $157
Flop A♦2♦3♦
Hero bets $55, Button insta-jams
Notes: I just transferred to this table so minimal reads. Button is late 40's woman, drinking Coronas (not sure if drunk), her bf is supposedly a reg in the room. She might be a "reg", too (recall seeing her play in a cocktail dress the previous night). Saw her open A5o to $12 pre, bet $20 into $24 on 476r HU vs. BB, get called, bet $120 on a 6 turn and snap-called a check-jam from BB (who had QQ), only to spike a 3 on the river. Otherwise, have seen her limp/call some speculative hands.
Blocking AA and ruling out 22/33, we're 31% against all flushes except 4♦5♦ getting 1.4-1, not great, but should we be seeing enough A2s/A3s/AxQ♦/random clown factor hands where we can call off here?
11 Replies
With the description you gave of the villian, it seems entirely likely that she could be doing this with nonsense. I've found in my own experience that people typically don't snap jam nutted hands like this. I'd guess it was a one diamond type of hand and just call and pray. Worst case you still have almost 40% equity
Snap call. Damn near high five the dealer. Actually, F it. High five the dealer.
Why are we ruling out sets? I would call but not loving it.
I think you are ahead of (or chopping with) value here somewhat often. Certain villains will go crazy with AxQd and AxJd in this spot, maybe even AK no d.
Agree that I am not loving the spot, but I am never ever folding.
Easy call, imo. Few sets in her range, but some. Lots of AxXd and lower flushes. Given description, even some 2p. Giving her a range of 33,A2s/o (to represent a selection of set/2p combos), a selection of 3 Q-high flushes, and all of the Ace/Broadway combos available where the broadway is a diamond, you are 58%. You'd have to add a crapton more lower flushes to even consider folding. Even with all the diamond suited connectors, you're still over 50%
Results: I called, turn blank, river 9♦
I tabled my hand, she half-opened her hand and mucked, while telling the table she flopped a flush
I saw her hand...it was K♣T♣ 
This week's reminder that we always have to include a small percentage of WTF in every range...
Bro, please keep these AC stories coming. I don't miss going to AC to play, but I do miss seeing the degen characters splashing about.
PRE - the 3B to $70 seems a tad large, but you got a call, so maybe it's fine.
FLOP - I mostly check range from OOP when HU as the PFR, to let opponents stab at it and tell me what they have with their bet sizing.
I don't know what to do on an ace-high monotone board as the PFR when OOP.
Maybe if we think the snap-call pre is a tell, she has a lot of AX here, and we're basically free-rolling her, unless she flopped a set or 2P. But even then, I'd think we'd have so much equity that we can either check or c-bet small.
Your 1/3 pot c-bet seems a tad large, at least in theory. I know we're supposed to size down when the flop is monotone.
I don't know if I could find a fold here, with your hand, in this configuration, against a late 40's cougar chugging 'ronas.
I can't do the "my equity vs her range" math in my head, but I'd think we'd have at least 8 or 9 clean outs here when we're behind, and we'll be ahead of worse AX often enough. Hard for me to think we're much worse than 35%-40% against her range, discounting all random nonsense.
Results: I called, turn blank, river 9♦
I tabled my hand, she half-opened her hand and mucked, while telling the table she flopped a flush
I saw her hand...it was K♣T♣
OMG. You owe me a new laptop. I just spit a drink all over mine.
That's insane, in such an amazingly awesome way.
Nice hand. Thanks for posting.
