1/2 Top Set Facing 250bb River Check-Jam from Scummy Reg
$1/$2 NL Harrah's AC
UTG (Villain) - $900
UTG+1 (Hero) - $715
Villain is supposedly (according to dealer) a "scummy reg" who often shoots angles (has been reprimanded for faking forward motion past the betting line already), has been doing a lot of speech play, and playing quite loose. We were in a hand earlier with another splashy player where Villain opened to $10, called a $40 squeeze 3-ways, min-clicked the squeezer's flop c-bet of $42 to $84 on a K♥T♠2♥ , got called, then jammed for $400 on a 4♥ turn, got the squeezer to fold, and proudly showed A♦6♠
Villain opens $10, Hero 3! to $35 with K♦K♣, Villain calls
Pot $73
Flop K♥8♠6♠
Villain checks, Hero bets $45, Villain calls
Pot $163
Turn 2♦
Villain checks, Hero bets $110, Villain thinks for about 90 seconds and calls
Pot $383
River 7♣
Villain checks, Hero bets $130, Villain stares me down for ~4 minutes, looking like he's about to stab me, then sloppily check-jams
TBH I bet river to get a crying call from God knows what or to possibly get him to do exactly this, and I'm not looking to fold, but should I even be entertaining the thought of folding here? Considering how he was playing, 9♠5♠, T♠9♠, and 4♠5♠ are all definitely in his range, considering the garbage he was opening/calling pre with. Can't say I've been in a spot live this deep with a non-nutted hand but interested to hear thoughts. It seems like he'd check/raise 88/66 on flop or turn, but maybe this could be K♠2♠ or K♠7♠
Thoughts?
9 Replies
So it's only like 400 on top.
I think this is the easiest call ever.
You can fold all your AK/AA here, but KK is the top of your range. If you're folding here, you're literally folding everything.
Villain's range 78/67, some slowplayed sets, some missed draws turning into bluffs, some marginal hands turning into bluff
Only hands that beat you are some random t9/45/59 type hand that somehow got there.
When you bet so small you wanted villain to raise right??? So you got what you wanted, now snap call.
You are getting a good price and can conceivably beat value so I’d call here. Can’t rule out some crazy bluff either. And of course this is basically the best hand you’ll ever have in this spot.
Villain should only have 1 combo of T9 and maybe one of 95 but he potentially has more combos of 54 which turned a double gutter. Don’t think that is enough reason to fold though.
I would not fold here or even seriously consider doing so, but I'd feel pretty sick before calling if villain spent literal minutes death-staring me before shoving. Glad it worked out.
The A6o showdown makes me want to size up pre even more. So much delicious value to be had.
River I call. Not fist pumping or anything but I think we will win more often than not and we are getting a price in case that’s not true.
Villain seems terrible. Maybe that is why he needs to angle shoot at 1/2. He may not be a winning pro. The UTG raise with 86o and calling a 3!?
Grunch:
PRE - Raise bigger.
He opened 5x from UTG, and apparently thinks he's the smartest guy at the table. He's not folding if you make it $40. So make it $40. If you think he'll call $45 or $50, make it $45 or $50.
In fact, I might make it $45 or $50 just because that looks like TT/JJ and might induce him to do some shenanigans.
FLOP - C-bet bigger. I probably pot it.
He's a scum-reg in AC. You're some tourist who wandered in and doesn't know how to play. He'll put you on AK, float wide, and try to make a play on a later street. If he has 88, 66, or 86, he'll gift wrap his stack for you. If he has 97 or a spade draw, he might come over the top with a chunky raise. We're happy with whatever he does, so long as it gets more money in the pot.
TURN - Dude, you have to BOMB it here.
He raised pre from UTG. You 3B him next to act. He called, then called again when you c-bet the K-high flop, and the turn is the brickiest of bricks. He's insanely capped, and you have the nuts. You have to go for max value in spots like this. He's not going to put more money in for you at this point.
RIVER - OMG, I'm calling this, all day.
What's he repping? T9ss? 95ss? I'm not buying what he's selling. He's got 2P at best, and more often than not, less than that. He's going to have a $hlt-ton of busted draws here. This is never, ever, ever the nuts.
Okay, SOMETIMES he rolls over a straight, but nowhere near often enough in this line. All his rivered straights are likely to have been combo draws on the flop. He would have raised flop or turn, at least some of the time, and donked the river a lot of the time, if not all of the time, because there's no way in hell he'd let you check back with AK if he gets to the river with a draw and drills it on that miracle 7.
Not meaning offense, but I think you need to work on your range-reading. The hands that beat you aren't opening UTG and calling your 3B next to act from OOP, then check-calling a 60% flop c-bet and a 2/3 pot turn bet, and then checking again when they get the most unbelievably lucky scum-reg suck-out card.
You'd need a crow bar to pry KK out of my hands here.
Just read the reveal. I did not expect 86o.
Okay, so...I wasn't too far off. I'm assuming he put you on AK, because that's what you're supposed to have when he flops bottom 2. I'm a little surprised he didn't x/r flop or turn, but I guess he opted not to because of your bet sizing. I wouldn't put you on AKss when you take this sizing, because AKss would feel somewhat invulnerable with two spades on this board.
But the fact that he didn't x/r flop or turn just illustrates why we can go larger on every street. As an alternative, I wouldn't hate a really small flop c-bet, hoping to induce the x/r, but we absolutely have to go bigger on the brick turn, after he calls our 60% pot flop bet.
If he folds, he was on a straight draw that was just hoping to drill the turn, and we're not getting any more money out of him. If he doesn't fold to a 2/3 PSB, he's not folding to a full PSB. All we're doing with the smaller bet size is letting him realize more of his equity for a lower price.
