Jacks multi-way OOP 3bet pot

You are not checking to the raiser, you are the raiser, so I don’t understand. I’m betting $75 on the flop & barreling the turn. If he’s still there (I’m amazed) after that I’ll probably give up. You’re ignoring the semi-bluff strength of your hand. His tank call probably means he hasn’t got a big hand, so you should convince him you do.

Really hate the idea of getting beat by K8. Villain could have Ax as played, I hope you didn’t fold. You block AJ and even 2pair can’t feel great if you’re firing.

Can’t you see that as played, he’s just taking stabs at the pot because you’re showing weakness. I think you should realize the board is just as scary to most of his range.

Maybe my style is just different but with a made hand & a draw to a better one, I’m on the attack. When I confidently fire it in there, they usually give up. I’d rather win $80 with aggression than be playing for $200 with no idea where I stand.

I folded.

As I was typing this thread I realized a semi bluff cbet was the right play. Especially after seeing V in a later hand bet small on the flop, check turn, and got caught bluffing $70 on River.

But I’m second guessing. I tell myself that players at this level call too much and under bluff.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

As the preflop 3bettor oop with a straight draw, I would bet 30 on the flop, hoping to fold out AQ and get calls from 99, 88, and diamond flush draws. Because he called your 3bet, V’s range is capped but strong, so I wouldn’t bet more than 30. V has a lot of Kx and Qx, all the two pairs. If V calls, and hero whiffs the turn, I’m checking the turn unless it’s a 9, J, or A. I think barreling the turn is a huge leak.

As played, fold river. During the hand, you lacked the info that V can in fact bluff the river. In practice, few villains at low stakes bluff the river. Without a read, when a V makes a big bet on the turn or river on this board after calling a preflop 3bet, assume your JJ is toast.

The 3b seems way too big over a $6 raise, I’d go like $35, but that’s trivial.

This is a weird flop for your hand because if we bet, are we betting for value or as a bluff? If we’re betting for value, what worse hands are calling? Almost none except like JT, which probably folds pre anyway. And if we’re bluffing, what better hands are folding? Even 2nd pair (Qx) will always have lots of straightening equity to go with it.

So I definitely start with a check to check call here. You’ll almost never face a bet from worse when checked to on this flop as 3bettor since they’re always afraid you may have AA/KK/QQ/AK here. So when he bets $20, you’re almost always behind. Probably to some Kx or maybe AQ/QJ if he has sizing tells.

He checks back turn and lets you realize your equity which is great, or we would have to x/c again.

River is an easy fold at this level. Most players aren’t capable of taking a b/x/b line here as a bluff. Yeah the sizing seems a lil sketchy because would he really check turn and then bet big on river with just Kx/Qx? But I’m probably still folding as he may have convinced himself that his KJ is good on river when you check thrice.

An alternative line would be to bet small flop and blast turn as a semibluff. But I’d attempt that sparingly.

How would you expect to get called by someone with second pair with an overcard and top gutshot, but called by someone with an underpair and bottom gutshot (or no draw at all!)?

Grunch:

The prior hand history doesn't tell us enough to make it worth including here, unless we're supposed to infer that V may be calling us wide pre because he apparently made a tight fold in an earlier hand.

PRE - I don't know what size you should 3B here, but everyone else folded and he tank-called, so $40 is probably the right answer.

FLOP - yuck. Definitely check from OOP. See what he does.

What he does is bet 1/4 pot. I think we could raise right now, to fold out QX and maybe some weaker KX, but I think we can also just call and see what happens on later streets, so long as we're planning to play those streets as check-fold, bet-fold or check-raise, not check-call.

TURN - Can't see a good reason to bet, so check seems fine.

RIVER - Weird spot. I don't really like checking, betting small, or betting large.

When V bets $70 into $122, what's he repping? KX? Some weird 2P? A busted draw? Some lower PP? That sizing doesn't seem large enough to be polar, so it seems like it would be thin value, or a weak bluff.

A lot of the population will monkey-stab with air or turn something into a bluff when we check for a third time. When he's opening for a 3X raise at 1/2, even over multiple limpers, I'd put him into that category of weak rec-fish that will stab here with everything from 5x to weak KX, for reasons even they can't explain.

We're double-blocking the nuts, but it's not very credible for us to try to rep the nuts by raising now, when we didn't raise flop, and we just check turn and river. If we raise here, I think he's calling with all most of his KX, unless we jam, and even then, he'll call sometimes.

I was going to say I think calling is the worst option here, but after thinking about it, I'm not sure. I probably shrug-call and lose more often than not, or shrug-fold and never know if I got bluffed.

But if I think V is capable of folding weak KX, I might jam $290 as a bluff. It's a 4x raise in a spot that would seem really under-bluffed, and where he seems pretty capped after he checks back the turn, and then he only bets around 1/2 pot on the river.

I disagree that a semi-bluff c-bet is the correct play on the flop. I think it's better to check and evaluate. Opponents at these stakes will over-stab, and often telegraph their hand strength with their bet sizing. Even if he's good enough to avoid obvious sizing tells, or good enough to protect his check-back range, we can still gain info by checking to him again on brick turns.

There's nothing wrong with your river fold in theory. V can have many hands that are better than ours, and take this line. But in practice, at low stakes, it seems less likely. A lot of low-stakes opponents will be happy to take their showdown value here with weak KX, QX, and even some TX.

But when we check from OOP as the PFR, and continue checking to them, a lot of those same players will randomly decide to turn some hands with some modest showdown value into a bluff by stabbing at the pot. And usually when they do that, they'll use sizing that's around 1/2 pot.

When V bets 1/4 pot on the flop, he could be doing that with some weak KX and some worse value hands, and check back the turn after you call the flop. But if he thought his hand was best, he'd probably bet larger on the river when you check again. That small bet sizing on the flop followed by a check back on the turn and 1/2 pot river bet suggests some sort of showdown value that doesn't know what to do.

That's not to say that EVERY low-stakes opponent will ALWAYS take this line with worse hands. Some V's will take this line with KX, or even QX, and we just lose with JJ.

You're not wrong that players at these stakes call too much and under-bluff, in general. But when they call too much PRE, and over-stab on the flop, they get to later streets with a wide / weak range. When we show weakness by checking, many opponents will often over-bluff as a response, because they don't know what to do when they're IP and facing a check from the PFR.