President Donald Trump
I assume it's still acceptable to have a Trump thread in a Politics forum?
So this is an obvious lie - basically aimed at
Sure, if cpi comes in higher than expected, dxy will drop and bonds will go upBut rates are up and dxy is also "relatively high" just like bonds have slowly began to come up. and rates have began to come downIf i had to argue against myself. Id say "why is dxy dropping while bonds aren't equally shooting up" when both are tied to rates? And i think it comes down to the lo
Dxy is high relative to what?
You are kind of talking nonsense and not even address the point I made in my original post and seem to be disagreeing with me by agreeing with me
Its average level
Dxy is high relative to what?
You are kind of talking nonsense and not even address the point I made in my original post and seem to be disagreeing with me by agreeing with me
That was my mistake. I meant to say down instead of up or something.
You said this.
Yes, but rates are up and dxy is down. And if cpi comes in hot before Powell is replaced rates will go up more. And dxy will likely tank more
If CPI comes in higher than expected, rates "could" go UP, but no, that would mean that if rates did go up, dxy would also go UP and bonds would go down.
If this conversation is fascinating, maybe make its own thread and get it out of the trump thread because i can guarantee you that we are not going to hash it out in a few posts.
Sort of. I don't care what people in this Forum think of me, that's for sure.
Also why anyone is answering you seriously, when you stated you are here only to troll and don't want to discuss politics (in a politics forum).
Why do you folks like to lie so much. I never said I'm "only here to troll." Obviously we're discussi
Here
I'm kinda here in this forum now for the same reason perhaps as d2_e4 and Trolly: to enjoy the ride and make a few short pithy and/or amusing posts.
Please don't make me fetch the part where you said you didn't want to talk about politics.
Nuisance settlement.
Uh huh, sure. Make sure you do something charitable for someone today - and above all, don't forget to share with others that you did a good deed.
Now take a look at the 50 year chart
The dollar is dropping mostly because of the expectations of rate cuts when Trump entered.
Rates go down, dxy goes down, same with the opposite. The dollar was much weaker than today during all of Obama's era because of low interest rates. Not because of the coming apocalypse. The zombies might come out, but the dxy dropping isn't abnormal.
trump actions also eroded confidence among huge institutional investors including foreign central banks, and even a smallish rotation out of USD to buy a little more eur denominated assets necessarily causes the dollar to drop.
it's true that interest rates matter but not in a vacuum. they matter for exchange rates compared to the rates for the other major currencies.
like this
It’s an extreme example meant to convey that inflation isn’t the only thing that influences treasury yields. Inflation doesn’t really affect the yields at all, supply and demand does and economic growth is a massive part of the demand for our treasuries
I’m pretty sure you understand this though and are just being disingenuous
It’s an extreme example meant to convey that inflation isn’t the only thing that influences treasury yields. Inflation doesn’t really affect the yields at all, supply and demand does and economic growth is a massive part of the demand for our treasuries
I’m pretty sure you understand this though and are just being disingenuous
Yes supply and demand ultimately determine the price of any asset. No i disagree that inflation doesn't affect yields at all, given that the demand for long term bonds does depend for a significant part on long term inflation expectations.
I don't understand what you mean with "economic growth is a massive part of the demand for treasuries".
Yes supply and demand ultimately determine the price of any asset. No i disagree that inflation doesn't affect yields at all, given that the demand for long term bonds does depend for a significant part on long term inflation expectations.
I don't understand what you mean with "economic growth is a massive part of the demand for treasuries".
The sentence was clumsily worded to my point. Expected inflation would drive yield higher but expected recession would drive yield lower
The sentence was clumsily worded to my point. Expected inflation would drive yield higher but expected recession would drive yield lower
Ok. In general the bold would be true. BUT. That's not true for expected stagflation (which is the expectation you describe).
It is true in general that expectations of a recession will drive yields lower, under the premise that "normal" recessions are heavily deflationary, which creates room for the central bank to aggressively cut rate, as it happened in the last american recessions.
BUT, if a recession comes and inflation stays over target even while real GDP nosedives into negative territory, the central bank can't (won't?) cut rates.
So you were depicting a conflicting set of expectations that doesn't actually agree with the underlying theory of why rates get cut during a recession.
In fact when you think about it, imagine a country like Brazil or Turkey (both of which routinely have recessions with stagflation), and imagine somebody telling you that they expect brazilian inflation to be 15%, but a severe recession to happen, which is why they are happy buying 10y brazilian bonds in real at 5% yield.
You would call an ambulance if you heard such talk.
Expected inflation would drive yield higher but expected recession would drive yield lower
This is true, but understand (which you probably do) that yields don't fall because we enter a recession, they fall because the fed often cuts rates as a response to help get us out of that mess. The recession doesn't cause it, it's the fed's actions.
Because you can have realistic situations where inflation rises and rates won't or can't be raised out of fears of increasing unemployment - like what happened in late 2020 when inflation came in but the fed kept rates near zero to help fuel the economy to get people back to work. Then they raised em after that.
The problem with Trump and him being so damn dumb, is that we could conceivably enter a situation, based on the help of his actions, enter a high inflation envirnmnet with no room to raise rates. We only have so many "get out of jail free cards"
But maybe excise all of this econ ****.
How many more years until you understand that literally everything is "gold on his ego"? Months of apathy after he took the office, now people are finally on the streets but look who's also here: This one guy who thinks he is is so uber smart and of course he says "Protest not very well thought out hurr durr"
Okay, I hear you. Words like "fraud," "fool," "loser" stroke his ego. He loves them applied to him. Just like "king." I see your point.
Here
Please don't make me fetch the part where you said you didn't want to talk about politics.
Actually, I AM going to ask you to fetch that part. Pretty please.
But even if you DID find that part, not WANTING to talk about it is different than NOT talking about it at all, especially since I was addressing a thoughtful post by chillrob in which he was asking some important questions.
Like I said earlier, I would enjoy discussing politics if almost half my posts weren't correcting lies and misrepresentations.
Huh??
Not sure how these two factoids are incompatible:
1. I don't care what people think about me.
2. I don't enjoy wasting time and energy addressing lies about me.
#1 is about opinions about me.
#2 is about falsehoods about me.
Hope you understand now.
There's literally a trend of liberals on tiktok buying into a rumor that Trump is throwing illegals out of planes over the ocean. You could tell them anything about Trump and they'll believe it. Greatest troll opportunity ever.
wouldnt be the first time the genocidal White Empire threw thousands of so-called "undesirables" in the ocean for fun and profit
There's literally a trend of liberals on tiktok buying into a rumor that Trump is throwing illegals out of planes over the ocean. You could tell them anything about Trump and they'll believe it. Greatest troll opportunity ever.
Well, I just saw from the derposphere that apparently Kash has discovered that pelosi was the mastermind of jan. 6, so yeah.
There's literally a trend of liberals on tiktok buying into a rumor that Trump is throwing illegals out of planes over the ocean. You could tell them anything about Trump and they'll believe it. Greatest troll opportunity ever.
Ya I bet you can even get those stupid libtards to believe that there’s an epidemic of cities where MAGAtards steal dogs and cats so they can eat them
You could get them to believe the stupidest **** imaginable til they’re frothing at the mouth I bet
Huh??
Not sure how these two factoids are incompatible:
1. I don't care what people think about me.
2. I don't enjoy wasting time and energy addressing lies about me.
#1 is about opinions about me.
#2 is about falsehoods about me.
Hope you understand now.
Eh, when asked why you're celibate and never had any interest in shagging a female or male, you got super indignant at the question and stated that you would not engage in any of that and just wanted to troll on politics.
That's an example of a guy who gives a shiit what others think.
There is a very real possibility we have a scenario by the end of the year where:
1. Dollar is downbad
2. Interest rates are up
3. Deficit spending is up
4. Economic growth is down
Which would be an absolutely devastating state of affairs
I mean all 4 are already happening?
No sane market observer seriously believes "lower rates" is driving the weakness in the dollar. It's a contributor for sure but it's not the driver.
The drop this year is absurdly massive by FOREX standards and the deltas in interest rates (and in expected interest rate changes) don't even come close to justifying the moves we've seen since Trump started his stupid trade war.
