Would you 4bet ship here?
1/3 9 handed
Hero just sat down.
Villain is fishy aggro. He overvalues hands like JJ preflop. Seen him 4bet then getting it in with JJ for 500. Seen him limp/3bet huge with JJ vs a nit then bet flop 349r, shove turn K, losing 1200+ to the nit.
He plays aggressive in position with showdown value.
Hero is a nit, but not sure if villain remembers me. lol
Effective stacks 300
Hero in utg opens to 12 with KTs, 3 callers. V in bb squeezes to 60.
I have a feeling he is squeezing light here.
Can we ship based on such 'feeling'???
16 Replies
Rather than asking us what to do, try to come up with a range for Villain, and then use a poker calculator to see how KTs does against this range.
I don't open KTs from UTG vs. this type of table (obviously like to call) and player (will 3bet light). Totally up to you. If he will fold most of his hands, it's great. If he likes to gamble w/ pairs and suited aces, etc., it's lighting money on fire. However, it will definitely get rid of your nitty image 😉
I would not. Seems entirely unnecessary.
Suggest you do what Fondler suggested and figure a range or a couple of ranges, run the math and come up with an EV figure for shoving and then maybe ask for feedback based on that.
I'm not going to do it for you but I will say that all we know for sure about his calling range is that the worst hand he calls with is JJ or lower, which is not particularly encouraging.
I don't open KTs from UTG vs. this type of table (obviously like to call) and player (will 3bet light). Totally up to you. If he will fold most of his hands, it's great. If he likes to gamble w/ pairs and suited aces, etc., it's lighting money on fire. However, it will definitely get rid of your nitty image 😉
Spoiler
I shipped based on my gut feeling.
He tank called with A2s??? I didn't know people gamble with them. My gut feeling was correct that he was light but I didn't realize he calls down this light.
Most people don't pay much attention unless they're in the hand themselves, so didn't do much towards my nitty image.
It's a little wide. Depends a little on the callers and what they might do. I think you have enough hands here that shove for value [88+, ATs+, KQs] that this can be a pass.
Edit: saw result, this is the problem with playing back at these guys - they still call. the trademark of a bad LAG. You need to have value when you play back and then yea just rip.
Utg 9 handed I'd think this might be an open fold. I wouldn't 4bet but I guess your read was accurate but maniacs are sometimes stations at the same time. I'd be thinking about 4betting A9s, AQo, KQs if I really wanted to 4bet bluff
I get it ... Stupidbanana annoyed a bunch of people and then doubled down, so then predictably people said they would ignore him.
But, it's fine, worst case we'll still have a functioning forum without someone posting massive punt shoves for no sane reason once a week.
I am all for attacking weakness but I’d wait for a medium pair or some AJo / A5s to bluff jam.
Sounds about right. I hope you sucked out on him, but he was farther ahead than one would think.
Sounds about right. I hope you sucked out on him, but he was farther ahead than one would think.
If they were different suits, then KTs is about 44%.
Very profitable to shove against this guy with JJ+/AK. I wouldn't make light shoves at low stakes where people like to see flops, even allin. At 1/3, some people will flat call initially with premium hands and then snap call your push. Really bad push. You can see that 3-bettor was probably always calling with whatever he had.
I would just fold to the 3! If there are a lot of 3!s, then limp or fold this hand UTG.
I fold preflop the first time cuz I doubt weak suited broadway are profitable hands for me in EP.
Even dood's light squeezes are mostly crushing us and I'm never attempting to get a guy who overvalues / stacks off lol $1200 to a nit with JJ to 3bet/fold.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Stop calling yourself a nit if you're opening KTs for from UTG for 4BB's off 100BB's, and considering a 4B-jam. That's not nitty. It's spewy.
More important than how he plays when he has the betting lead is how he responds when someone plays back at him.
Only knowing that he shoved JJ on a turn K on 349rbK after c-betting the flop and getting called, I'd infer that he likes betting / raising, and hates folding. If that's the read, I wouldn't try to make him fold after he 3B's, even if we think he's 3B'ing us light.
The thing is - he can be 3B'ing us light, and still be 3B'ing us with a better hand, or just a hand that has enough equity vs our hand for us to not really want to play for stacks. Even if we think he's 3B'ing us REALLY light, he can still show up with some strong hands that dominate KTs. Jamming KTs is just so unnecessary.
Go back to your read that he over-values hands like JJ pre. If you jam, what do you think is the absolute best hand he folds, and the worst hand he calls? If he's over-valuing JJ, is he folding 77+ to our 4B? Is he folding any suited aces? Is he folding any suited K better than KTs?
I doubt he's folding 77+ or very many (if any) suited aces. He may not fold KQs, and might not fold KJs. He might not fold any PP.
Imagine if he decides to gamble with all the middling SC's that have decent equity against big PP's, like 65s to 87s. That's probably the absolute bottom of his range. If we make his calling range all the PP's from 77+ and all the suited aces, we're pretty crushed. Even if we start adding in 22-55, KQs, and some slivers of 65s to 87s, we're still pretty crushed by that range.
