MWP, JJ vs donkbet
1/3 9 handed
Table just broke and combined two tables into 1.
V just moved over from other tables. He looks like an Indian guy around 30.
H is an asian guy in 30's.
Effective stacks around 550ish.
Preflop
Hero in HJ opens to 15 with J♣J♦. CO+Btn calls, V in bb calls.
Pot 61
Flop 5♦4♦2♠
V donks 35, H calls. All fold
Pot 131
Turn 9♦
V checks fairly quickly. Hero bets 45, V calls fairly quickly.
You like a check or a bet? Sizing how did you like it? Yes I probably was going to fold to check/raise
I could check back, but I have no clue what villain has if he just bombs the river.
Pot 221
River T♣
V checks, Hero???
I have a good feeling we're good here. How much are we betting if we do bet here??? Or do you think this is too thin?
I guess Villain have some sets??? some pocket pairs like 33, 66,77,88 type hands??? A5??? 43/53??
Imho, villain most likely have some marginal showdown hands. Some random slowplayed hands like sets/45 that is worried about flushes. Probably very very little slowplayed flushes, since most flushes will bet himself on turn and might even check/raise the turn if he does check.
If we had a non showdownable hand here, what size do you bet here if you do bet? All-in?
3 Replies
Against an unknown, I would check behind on the river. To me it looks like either a set that wants to get to showdown cheaply with the possible flush on board or some kind of draw like 76s (not diamonds) or Ad5x that probably isn't calling a river bet.
I have to back all the way up to the donk bet on the flop and say I raise to $90. You don’t want the other players in there & they folded anyway.
So, now I’ve got an entirely different ball game than you. It’s likely he folds, but if he does call, I can probably take a FreeCard on the turn when the flush comes in, or represent it - we’ll worry about that if it happens.
It’s called realizing equity - taking the dead money and run. Everyone folds, you made $100 easy! It’s a mistake to think you can get extra value & then let villain back into a hand.
Raise flop to deny CO + BTN equity as well as to get value from BBs overpairs + draws.
Size up ott as population's calling range is less elastic based on our sizing than it should be, so the range you gave him that we beat is calling anyways.
As played, we bet small enough ott that we can go small again otr.
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