5/10: Combo draw against maniac and an OMC

The question becomes do we have fold equity.

Imho, we have no fold equity on such flop, unless Villain has pure air which probably doesn't overbet flop.

Villain has some fd, some AJ, some overpairs.

I guess we either call or fold.

I’d rather 3b pre vs 70/40 dude

As played i think this is a call vs omc who will stack off his KK, AA if you hit your flush or straight.

We have a 12 out draw. I can't say that our Spade outs are clean, but I'm guessing OMC wouldn't be overbetting the pot if he had one.

If H ships, he's sticking 950 into a pot with 365 in it already, and V needs another 750 to call. I get that we need 950/(1155 + 950) or 43.9% assuming no FE. If V is a true OMC, and has no spade redraw, I am giving them QQ+ no spade, then H has only 40.4%. Obv, adding JJ just makes it worse.

Would this V bluff with AK on this flop? Also ldo, that makes life easier. Adding 3 AKs no spade combos to QQ+ makes it 45.4 for H. All 4, and it's 44.3%.

In my pool, (SETX) the minraise on button is usually a poorer player's way to juice the pot with a premium. In others', it's a "Let's get more $ in," with some bigger SC/medium PP. (I'm not sure some of them can spell SPR...)

I'm assuming this OMC is like my older donks and JJ is nowhere near good enough to do this. It's often AA. Sometimes AK, and they usually call a 4! with it, not send a 5! (Which is a useful, albeit expensive, way to find out which.)

Memory lane aside, if they ain't folding their long awaited AA to a shove, and they're probably going to fire big again on a safe turn, I think H has to fold now. But definitely range your V. If QQ isn't a possibility, then hey! 2 more potential outs! And ask yourself if V is just going to overbet ship a non spade, non 8-J turn.

I nit fold pre when I'm playing well, now that I'm here I'm in check-call mode until I hit, when I do hit I lead.

Fold.

You know he's bombing the turn on a brick, and folding if we make our hand and donk into him. Even if we make our hand and check, he's just checking back once we call flop and the turn changes the nuts. Maybe we can get a crying call out of him on the river, if we bet small enough.

We really don't have good enough implied odds to want to continue here, so it's a pretty easy fold when he over-bets.

From my experience these omc types play very few hands but are very married to their hand once they decide to play them. So yes op is only seeing one card but most likely stacking V once he hits because they dont fold their AA, KK no matter what.

But i might be wrong, op should have a better feel of V; op do you think V will stack off his overpair if the flush comes?

I think this is almost always a call - you're getting close to 2-1 on your money so you only have to win 1/3 of the time to make this work. Sometimes I'll shove this type of flop depending if I'm running hot.

Yes, that's fair. Even as I was typing my post, I was thinking that OMC's sometimes have a hard time folding AA/KK, even when the most obvious draws get there.

We don't really know if V actually is an OMC. All we know is he's exceeded life expectancy. Like you said, OP should hopefully have a better read than just "he's old". Some old dudes can be maniacs.

I'm mostly going by population reads and a very large dose of inference mixed with my own personal experience in spots like this, which is admittedly pretty limited. If he's truly an OMC, I'd think my advice is sound - he's always got a huge hand here, he's always bombing brick turns, and he's never paying us off if we make our hand.

If he's just kinda-sorta an OMC, meaning he's been waiting all night for AA/KK and he's never folding (dagnabit!), maybe we're getting the right implied odds to continue. But there again, we're only seeing the river if we bink our hand on the turn.

The problem I see here is that we're starting out $1k eff and there's only $165 in the pot when V bets $200. Let's say we've got 11 clean outs, for a roughly 22% chance of binking the turn. Let's call it 20% so the math I'm about to do is easier. How much can we extract at that point?

I'm honestly not sure if I'm doing this math right, but if we're to call off a $200 bet, and we've only got a 1 in 4 chance of making our hand on the turn, I think we need to win $800 when we make our hand. If there's $365 in the pot now, we'll need for him to put another $435 in when we make our hand.

I mean...if the turn is another spade, and we come out and donk small, MAYBE he calls, because the board is paired and he's praying to boat up on the river. Maybe he also calls a small river bet if it's just a brick.

Like, if we bink the turn, and we need to make another $435, we could spread that out over two streets, by donking for $200 into $565 on the turn, and then just sticking the rest in on the river. Even though it's so insanely face-up, he might have a hard time folding when we jam $550 into $965. In that scenario, yeah, we'd be getting paid enough.

Unfortunately, that seems unlikely. We might get more value checking turn, letting him check back, and then donking $435 into $565 on the river.

It seems more likely he'll call turn if it's an off-suit 8, because we shouldn't be calling the flop with just a gut-shot, and there's only one combo of T9ss that might call the flop. But there are only three offsuit 8's, so the odds of getting paid go way down, to 6%, and how much we need to make goes way up. We're nowhere near deep enough to gamble on a 6% shot.

So, there's like a 6% shot of spiking an off-suit 8 and him grudgingly stacking off, and a 16% shot of making our flush, without really knowing if he'll put any more in. It's not just that the flush will be obvious - it's also a paired board, and we're going to have way more JJ and 7x in our range than he will.

Come to think of it, if the turn is an off-suit 8, we could have 87s for a boat. V might still fold if we come out and donk.

I dunno. We can debate how big a bet he'll call and how often he'll call, but I don't think we'll ever get to the point where the implied odds are enough to make calling the flop over-bet +EV.

I think flop fold is fine, just not amazing implied odds

Preflop is terrible both times, particularly calling OOP to the OMC who has 100BB.

I'd fold this pretty draw. You lack stack depth and you lack fold equity (you are saying you have exactly JJ or 77 if you jam) and you are unlikely to be ahead if you hit a pair. Not to mention that OMC could have a boat here. Also if the front door flush comes in and you jam you may get an unwanted fold sometimes.

There was a raise to 25 and a 3! to 50, so folding to the 3!, particularly with this hand, would be terrible. Villain B is obviously awful and donk-style 3-betting that size as a squeeze and then overbetting the flop.

If he had a wide range and you could get AK/AQ/Axs to fold better hands, shoving would be good. However, he probably has an overpair and you are about 40% against that. He could have a high flush draw, which crushes your hand, and you are drawing dead against JJ. So it seems pretty bad against this player with this sizing.

I would call and draw. He isn't folding if you make a straight and he is likely calling at least on bet against a flush.

Villain B is old...not OMC. Just wanted to put that out there. Not all old guys are nits

He's literally described as 10/0

And described as OMC in the thread title

Ah ok. Missed that in the description. I’ll retract….until we find out in the reveal that he had K10o or sth