Villain's flop overbet is weird, think I'm gonna bluff it
1/2, VFW hall. Primary villain is the same as the one from this hand. Now, after playing with him some more, I can tell he's LAGgy, and gets sticky sometimes with top pair. No big action between us, but once he raised preflop to $15, I made it $55 with AK and he folded and said he had AT. $500 effective.
We're five-handed and he open-limps from the CO? Weird. Button and SB come along and I rap the table with Q♣ 10♦.
Flop ($10): K♦ 9♥ 7♠
Checked to Villain, who bets $15. Button folds, SB calls and I also call because I think his line so far is full of ****. I also have the gutshot and backdoor 8/6 combo.
Turn ($49 after rake): 9♣
Checked to Villain, who bets $25. SB calls and I raise to $80.
For what it's worth, it's late and I have already announced it will be my last orbit. Not sure how that might influence Villain's perception of me.
10 Replies
Flop is an over bet in relative terms tonpot, but at low stakes absolute matters so 15 bucks does not seem an overbet to me.
He's betting into 4 people. This does not seem like a FoS line.
I dont like bluff here.
When you know V gets sticky with top pair you know V is someone you value bet not bluff. Why make the read if you won't take advantage of it?
Sure you can rep a 9 but they also can have 9.
I don't hate it if you are basically 100% confident they are going to fold all top pair hands. But given you said he can get sticky I think it's an overplay.
It feels like a punt against a sticky opponent when you're drawing only to a gutterball.
Why is his line FoS?
This is a flop with dry flop with a bunch of middling cards, he could easily be betting a weak Kx, 9 or 7.
You're bluffing into 2 players OTT with air and frankly a way too small xr. You block zero of the hands they would do this for value and zero of the SB calling range. You have 4 cards in the deck you're hoping to see OTR and not only is the V sticky according to your own HH,but it's unlikely anything particularly scary comes on the river to generate much more fold equity.
I rate this punt Ray Guy/10.
Really common to see overbets on the flop in limped pots at low stakes. Very easy fold on the flop.
When someone overbets a multiway limped pot, easy fold with a gutshot or anything that doesn't hit the board hard. The overbet is almost always for value. No reason to bluff at a tiny pot, and no reason to play back at the overbettor with a bluff.
Go home, marchron. You're drunk.
And that is the shortest post you've ever made.
Why is his line FoS?
This is a flop with dry flop with a bunch of middling cards, he could easily be betting a weak Kx, 9 or 7.
Exactly. My guess was that he had unwittingly capped his range by limping in and trying to blast everyone out of the pot who didn't figure to have much, either. So I thought I could shove him off K4, 87, pocket fives, etc. This hand, and this thread, have shown me that his range was much stronger than I was giving it credit for. (I have also become aware that I am likely underbetting flops where I have thick value in a limped pot. I was betting $5 into $10 on flops like this with 77 because I didn't want to spook anyone off with an "overbet." So thanks, all, for bonus knowledge.)
Don't go putting me into the Hall of Fame right now. You haven't seen the river yet.
And that is the shortest post you've ever made.Exactly. My guess was that he had unwittingly capped his range by limping in and trying to blast everyone out of the pot who didn't figure to have much, either. So I thought I could shove him off K4, 87, pocket fives, etc. This hand, and this thread, have shown me that his range was much stronger than I was giving it credit for.
We know theoretically people should be thinking about bets relative to the size of pot, but they don't in low stakes small pots, and therefore absolute size is important.
