I created a model for MLB using 20 years of backtested historical data and advanced stats using Artificial Intelligence.
The results have been extremely promising to say the least. I won't talk about the past picks I will just start posting for everyone to see. Its based mostly off of advances stats and metrics, also taking into account certain trends, records, and lines. If the model detects an inefficiency in the implied odds in comparison to what it thinks the actual odds or, it will throw out plays on a 1-3 unit scale. Its 11-3 on its last 14 picks and up around 12 units.
6-5-2025
Giants -114
Dodgers/Mets under 9.5 -109
Pirates/Astros under 7.5 +100
Hello and thats nice, how are you accounting for rule changes? You know with the 20 years and all.
Like with the pitch clock recently, and maybe Covid? Best wishes in your endeavors. Good luck and Thank you.
To nullify the lookahead bias, I utilized logs and statistics that are rendered mostly irrrelevant to the tule changes. Also I created a model in essence that created the actual model by going through 20 years and determining how much weight to put on each variable.
How do you handle the all/star break. I will stop idk what to do.
Do you do props?
How much variance is your number from openers. Can you tell when they are shading?
Do you do other sports?
You dont seem like a pick seller, is this for partners?
Your website UX is nice.
Pitcher K - Better than a coin flip..not much.
April/May..okay. June meh.
I honestly dont think i know enough abt baseball, bc i think sometimes are like you can use math and not watch but there are ball knowers who use math and know too…they are better. Now when cbb comes thats a diff convo..lit best sport on earth..you can always know more i assume everyone does.
I would rather have a dental procedure without the drugs worn off than sell a pick bc the idea of harming others is literally physical pain for me. I am overly empathetic and care way too much.
I literally feed on math at the quantum level i mean i love it so much its an obsession. I sometimes think abt what it might have been like in that patent office.
i am currently obsessed with category theory and i like to swing anything into math. If i cannot, i talk to ai until i can..i mean pretty much anyone can do this..just have to be interested in it.
Ive been writing a chatbot recently, and its not even the bot. The bot is like..2nd. It pay attn too…The article “Attention is all you need” …im paying it.
The chatbot has nothing to do with sportsbet, everyone trying to educate..ya know. This is simpler..like a warm hug to people who need it.
Sorry if this sounds crazy, thanx for listening to me.
Hey, just wanted to say I really appreciated your post.
It didn’t sound crazy at all. Actually, it felt honest. You clearly think deeply about stuff most people skim past. There’s something kind of grounding about the way you describe your relationship with math and attention and even discomfort. Like, you’re not trying to impress anyone, you’re just laying it out how it actually feels.
I’m also into AI and modeling, especially around sports, and I get what you mean about being more interested in the structure than the outcome. I’ve felt that too. There’s something about seeing how things connect underneath that becomes kind of addictive. And yeah, sometimes the obsession isn’t even about the result anymore, it’s about chasing clarity.
That part you said about a chatbot being like a warm hug hit me more than I expected. A lot of people build things for efficiency or clout, but it sounds like you’re doing it because you genuinely care. That’s rare. I think people underestimate how much a well-timed kind word or thoughtful tool can matter to someone who’s going through something.
Anyway, just wanted to say your comment stuck with me. If you ever feel like talking more about AI, or even just how you think through things, I’d be into that. You’re seeing the world in a way most people miss.
Keep posting. I’m glad you’re here.
Adding Twins -186
6-6-2025
Giants +122
🔥 BetLegend Picks — New Discord Now Live
For anyone tired of noise and BS, we’ve launched a clean, no-hype Discord focused purely on sharp betting:
✅ Daily model-driven picks (MLB, NBA, NHL)
✅ Full writeups + edge % explained
✅ Tools, trends, and historical system filters
✅ Zero spam, no ads, no “DM me for VIP” crap
I built a real predictive model that’s been dialing in sharp sides, totals, and props — and we’re using it to collectively break the books.
🧠 If you're into numbers, systems, or just want to tail winners without the noise, join up: 🔥 BetLegend Picks — New Discord Now Live
https://discord.gg/gfHfzYAJ
6-7-2025
Guardians/Astros under 7.5 -120
6-8-2025
Phillies/Pirates under 7 -115
Been a solid stretch the last couple weeks, model’s been picking up some nice under spots and a couple of sharp sides that didn’t seem obvious to the public. And we had a couple horrific beats as well.
I’m still posting full breakdowns daily here for anyone who wants to follow along or fade:
https://www.BetLegendPicks.com
Not saying it’s perfect, but it’s definitely been staying ahead of some of these late line moves. Let’s see how long it holds.
6-8-2025
Twins -170
Pirates/Phillies under 7 -115
6-10-2025
Angels -155
6-10-2025
Angels -155
Giants -235
We don’t normally like laying this kind of juice. In fact, we actively avoid it most of the time. But sometimes, the numbers justify it — and today’s Giants vs Rockies matchup is one of those cases.
The line is sitting around –225, which implies a 69% win probability. That’s steep. But our internal model — which weighs starting pitcher quality, bullpen performance, offensive metrics, and home/road splits — projects the Giants closer to 73% to win. That gives us about a +4% edge over the market, which is significant when all signals align.
Matchup Breakdown:
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
Harrison’s been solid: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19 K in 18.2 IP. Palmquist? 8.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, high walk rate. Clear mismatch.
Bullpens: Giants pen ranks top 10 in ERA/WHIP; Rockies’ pen is bottom-tier in both.
Offense: SF has consistent producers in Ramos, Chapman, Flores. Colorado is hitting .219 as a team with one real threat (Hunter Goodman).
Trends: Giants are hot — 5 straight wins. Rockies are 6–25 at home this season. Not a typo.
This isn’t a YOLO pick. It’s not a square “better team wins” take. It’s a spot where every edge stacks up: SP, bullpen, offense, team form, home/road trend, and even motivation.
We’ll usually pass on laying –225. But when our model says it should be –270 or worse, we listen.
Final Play: Giants ML (–225)
Let’s cash it.
Another 2-0 day
6-11-2025
Angels -130
6-13-2025
Mets -159
6-13-2025
Royals -152
Mets -159
6-15-2025
Royals -148
6-15-2025
Giants +1.5
Royals -148
6-15-2025
Giants +1.5
Royals -148
Dodgers team total under 5 -148
6-16-2025
Rays -120
6-16-2025
Rays -120
Mariners -166
Nationals -165
6-17-2025
Giants -153
6-18-2025
Blue Jays -110
6-19-2025
Giants -158
6-19-2025
Braves/Mets first 5 under 4.5 -115
Giants -158