I triple barrel bluffed a thinking reg

yah meh. isnt really a spot id expect overfolds anywhere and you prob want bop to bluff it off. turn barrel honestly probably not great and expect him to have bigger hands given positions pre and stack depth. would flat pre tbh

What better hands are you expecting him to have on the river that are going to fold? Maybe AQ?

Grunch:

PRE - I'd raise to at least $60, if not $75 when we'll be OOP post flop.

FLOP - just checking flop from OOP when HU as the PFR. Let V stab at it, and if he doesn't we can make a delayed c-bet on the turn.

When the flop is ace-high, I'd only be checking or over-betting. A less than 1/2 pot bet size doesn't seem to accomplish much.

TURN - I get what you're trying to do, by turning your hand into a bluff, but there isn't enough fold equity in this line. We'd have more if we checked flop, and check-raised turn. This line basically lets V play perfectly. I would just check at this point, and probably fold to anything more than a 1/3 pot bet.

RIVER - if we're going to take this line with TT-QQ, I'd rather have a combo with no diamond. Not sure if it's better to bluff with TT, trying to fold out QQ/JJ, or if it's better to bluff with QQ/JJ, blocking AQ/AJ.

Either way, you're taking a super polar line, such that V either has a hand that can call, or he doesn't. When he tanks on the turn, I'd be giving him some AK that's considering a raise, more often than a draw that's trying to figure out how best to continue.

Maybe we get this through, but it's just so unnecessary when we can just check-fold on an earlier street and minimize our loss.

Flop: I don't mind downbet HU oop against a tricky opponent.

Turn: we have compressed V's range significantly preflop. We have all the AA/KK and AK. I can't see what polar bets we have here. X or bet small to control pot and set up river bluff.

River: we have way more FE if the pot had been smaller. Now we offer 2-1 after compressing V's range to something decent with which he might be able to call. If we check or bet small turn, V would face a way tougher decision getting worse odds.

Agree with Docvail on blocker value of QQ/JJ rather than TT here. I hope it got through.

Overall this definitely looks like a rope-a-dope line with his minimum hand probably being something like AQ (which admittedly he could be moved off of) but meanwhile everything else could easily be a monster (ETA: I don't see as many QQ/JJ as everyone does else after he calls a huge bet on the turn with two overs on board). Not even sure I like the flop cbet in a 3bet pot (in a single raised pot more reason for it), but I'd probably shut down after that.

In general, is there much reason to getting into an epeening war for large stacks OOP versus a solid player? Even preflop could just be a flat for me for this reason.

GcluelessNLnoobG

banana wtf is this flop bet

I actually like how this was played for the most part, but when you get to the turn, you either do what you did or you let it go. From the start:

* Many players prefer checking when OOP after the flop, but I like that you c-bet. I know Mark Goone checks it religiously, but I can't help but feel that it's often a lost street of value, both monetarily and for better information. By betting 1/3 pot (as Mark typically does on his first street of betting), you potentially get stronger hands to raise so I think your bet size is legit. I personally like going half-pot as I feel it narrows things even down better, but 1/3 is a good range bet.

* On the turn is where you're either checking or you're taking it all the way. There is merit to both. I think GG makes a good point that based on the player's profile and your position, getting out might have been preferred. You choose to go for it, in which case I like the full pot bet. The 30 seconds of V being in the tank is the key IMO. Is he doing that because he knows he's ahead and wants to put on an act or he is evaluating whether it's best to fold? Overall I feel it's a good sign.

* Shoving is now the last step. Hopefully it was enough to get the job done!

I think people are saying to bluff QQ over JJ/TT because it blocks AQ, a hand that's supposed to call a shove if we're bluffing appropriately. With the Ts, we block 1 combo of ATs (and he probably doesn't have ATo). JJ would be a way worse bluff b/c more people would fold AJ on the river and be more likely to play AJo preflop.

I don't think V gets to the river with much QQ or JJ. Those hands mostly fold flop or turn. I think it's much more likely V has AX, likely AJ-AK.

AK is never folding. AQ and AJ might. I'd rather turn QQ with no diamond into a bluff here, because QQ no diamond blocks AQ, and unblocks his diamond draws. JJ no diamond - I dunno, it seems optimistic.

If the run-out and / or the action was such that V might show up with QQ/JJ, then I think we can make an argument for turning TT into a bluff, specifically targeting those hands to fold. I'd still rather have some TT combo with no diamond in it.

That's all theory though. In reality, if V gets to the river with AQ, maybe he folds to the jam, maybe he doesn't. He's blocking AA and chops with AQ. Hero could take this line with the one combo of AA, three combos of KK, and six combos of AK. If V is TAG, and thinks hero is LAG, then V might think hero could show up with more value, like 88, A8, and A4.

Hell, I've been known to get OOL with K6s because GTO said it was kosher. Actually, I think it was a @keuwai video that turned me on to the absurdity of playing K6s.

It's not insane to think V will fold AQ here. It just doesn't seem overly likely if V is a basic 1/3 rec-fish.

Result:

I may be nitty, but don't like villain's play calling the 3! or calling the psb on the turn with that hand. I wouldn't mind a 4! from villain with that hand and OP's likely image, but I don't like a flat call. Just an impossible hand to play postflop, as the later action shows. Even though OP may be bluffing, no way villain can call a psb with TPNK maybe facing a river bet. A5s should definitely fold the river. Not sure this guy would fold AQ/AJ.

First, don't show your bluffs. At least not if you plan to bluff in the future. I certainly wouldn't try to bluff this guy, or anyone else at the table who appears to be paying attention.

Going back to his turn tank, I wonder if he was considering a raise or fold. If he knows we bluffed him here, he may decide to raise in similar spots going forward. We'll need to be more polar when we take this line against him.

Secondly, I agree with deuceblocker that this V probably doesn't fold AQ/AJ here if he's showing up on the river and tanking with A5. This is not the guy we want to bluff.

Glad you got this one through, but you risked a lot to out-play a random TAG.

The problem is once he calls the big turn bet he has atleast Ax+ and we would expect him to have a lot of the bigger Ax given he called the 55 3b. I wouldn't want to challenge this - furthermore we have a pair of 10s and can really only fold JJ with the turn bet. Luckily you ran into the bottom of his range but overall think you're torching money with this line.

Depends upon how often he intends to bluff. If he over bluffs vs GTO agree to not show. If he under bluffs vs GTO like showing as we win more by getting our bets called then lose by getting our bets called.

You probably have an aggressive image, so I would not show bluffs. Usually, people show bluffs when they don't bluff often to get action for their real hands.

Not sure you need to go pot on the turn. I smaller bet allows for a bigger shove and also allows you not to bluff off your whole stack. Once he calls pot on the turn, he really shouldn't fold much on the river.

Play might be good against a decent TAG. He seems more like a low stakes calling station, calling the 3! with Axs and then calling the pot bet on the turn. I know everyone calls 3!s at 1/3, but folding A5s might have been better.

Standard reg style of him to raise Axs at the limper, but limping behind and reevaluating if raised might be better, and wouldn't get him into a big pot with TPNK.

Judging by Banana's threads I'd guess he bluffs more than the average for his player pool.