Pocket Kings and a canasta lady
1-2 nlhe 8 handed eff stacks $400.
V1 CO main villain 50ish lady. Limps in a lot of pots but seems to always have it when she is betting. Has been winning this session and has a huge stack in front of her.
V2 60ish WG. BU. Typical 1-2 style. He also seems to have it when he bets and is also winning this session, he also has run his stack up.
Both Vs cover H who has ~$400.
Pre
2 limpers
H MP with KsKc takes it to $15
Both villains call, everyone else folds
Flop ($44 after rake). 3 ways
Js 9s 5s
H bets $20
Both Vs call
Turn ($104) Js 9s 5s 7h
H bets $35
V1 raises to $70
V2 folds
Pot $209 H calls with second nut flush draw.
River ($244) 10s
Board Js 9s 5s 7h 10s
H bets $70
V1 min clicks again to $140
Pot $454 (that’s a damn good Chevy engine)
$70 for H to call.
What’s the correct play here?
8 Replies
Don't think I'll bet flop on this monotone board oop. Probably check/call most bets.
Turn facing this minraise, it signifies massive strength. I might fold unless I have decent reads on her and that our spade draws are live.
River not sure why we are donking, we have a bluff catcher, we have like the 3rd nuts(behind st8flush+a flush).
As played probably fold. I mean does she really raise turn raise river with air?
You're never good on this river after the min-click. She has either the nut flush or Q8s for the Str8 flush.
The flop bet also seems pretty sus.
I'm OK with play up to River.
Turn raise almost certainly indicates a flush. The min makes it more likely to be nutted, but can't fold now.
River, ahggg, not sure we should lead here. The raise here is usually so nutted. Doesn't feel like a lot of lower flushes in range. She's not doing this with less than Qs, and none of thoses should be in her preflop range.
River is a sigh fold, every time I call these raises on a 4 flush board they always have the nuts. But with the price I'm not sure I find the fold (for the umpteenth time)
Also if she shows up with anything other than As here, all it shows is your read is wrong on the person, so not quite sure what the point of the post is.
The reason for the post.
It seemed like I had a decision between trusting my read and folding to a nit/being a nit myself, or calling with pot odds. $70 into $454 about 6.5 to 1.
You're just never good here when V min clicks lol twice. A "frequently limping, but bets when she has it, " villain is telling you SHE HAS IT. That V type has a gazillion suited Aces they'll call with too.
The problem now is they could also have a gazillion lower flushes on a 4-flush river. But is, e.g., 87ss really just calling the cbet after flopping a flush or minclicking turn?
If we're not calling river, now that H hit their draw, why did we call turn? And with V betting what amounts to 60% on river, if you wanted to call with the king-high flush you were drawing to and caught, I won't say No.
V just flicks in a healthy turn raise, H grits their teeth at yet another garbage board for their Kings, folds, and this isn't a thread. But there's just something so tilting about the minclick.
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine. I might raise bigger if the game is splashy and the opponents behind us are deep stacked and running good.
FLOP - check or c-bet seems fine. Might size down to 1/3 pot or less when it's multi-way and the flop is monotone. Half pot seems too big, at least in theory. Might be okay here though.
I'd just be concerned that someone shows up with a made flush, a set, or the NFD and we get cooked no matter what the run out is.
TURN - not sure what to do here, but I think some pot control is in order after our flop c-bet gets called by both and the 7h completes some straight draws or possibly gives someone a set with 7s7x.
As played, we can't fold, obviously, but I'm not loving this min-click.
Hard to range V's like the one described. She could be over-playing something, either worse value or a better draw. We're kind of in no man's land with our draw to the 2nd nuts, that will be insanely obvious if we hit it.
RIVER - I probably wouldn't bet. Probably just check, mostly planning to check call, but perhaps check fold if she jams.
Can't fold the fourth nuts getting this price.
I dunno, man. I think we may have put too much money into the pot on flop and turn, making this a potentially disgusting run out if she turns over AsJx, or something insane, like a straight flush with Q8 or 87.
H tank folds.
Another player asks if V had a straight flush. She said I wish. The casino was running $1000 high hands.
V turns over AsQs.
I led bet the River thinking a smaller flush or a straight might check back. A raise would give me even more of a reason to believe that I am beat.
Is the better play to check/evaluate? Call a reasonably sized bet? This player never bluffs should x/fold be a better play?
And what about the same River scenario against a splashy player. Is inducing a bluff on the River the right thing?
