Bloated multiway pot with two pair and a button who keeps stabbing

1. Preflop size is way too small imo - I'm prob going to 10 or 15
2. I'd have led on the flop to a nice chunky size - based on pf I doubt anyone has you beat unless its JT. AP I'd prob have xr flop
3. Turn is whatever - I guess id just xcall but really dont like it and prob never get there this way.
4. River - I guess I just call again - and hopefully I beat AT or AJ.....?

Thanks. $8 has become my standard pre-flop open at Mohegan Sun, but at a table that is this loose and passive, I will usually make the adjustment and go bigger. I ended up moving to a fishy $2/$5 game shortly after this hand, but likely would start raising bigger here if I stayed.

RE: Point #2, this is a room where players routinely flat AK and AQ and will play every combo of JT, so I am behind a lot of hands when there are six others involved. I agree that sets are very unlikely, though, and it may be worth leading flop or even check-raising as hands like AJ, AT, KXcc, etc. are never folding.

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger. It's low stakes. People like to see flops. Make them pay the max to out-flop you.

FLOP - yeah, check from OOP. Can't fold to this bet size / getting these pot odds, but not really loving this spot.

TURN - BTN stab seems pretty milky. Hard to think he's bluffing here, given the action to this point. Assuming BTN has JT, AK, or AQ, we're drawing pretty thin heading to the river. I'd like to think I could find a fold here, but it's hard at low stakes when our read is that the guy betting is terrible.

RIVER - I mean...V called pre, called flop, bet turn, and is now betting again on the river, after two people called. What bluffs does he have, other than missed clubs, most likely with the Kc? Maybe KJcc or KTcc, or some other KXcc combos that shouldn't even be in the hand?

I probably fold, hoping CO calls and we see what they both had.

I think this hand is fine as played.
I call the river bet.

I think river is easy fold.

We only have a bluff catcher on river, we beat no value hands.

I'm not sure if ppl bet this small with a missed draws vs 2 on river.

OP - I usually go to Mohegan Sun once a year to kick off my summer break. Whats the BI at the 1/2 game, is it still 400?

Also what are your thoughts on the 2/5 games?

Preflop: open bigger

Flop: the CO seems like he's pricing his draw and block-betting. We're getting pretty good IO and perhaps it's too tight to fold. That said, if we're calling, it should be with some plan for the rest of the hand. If we don't bink, we're oop the rest of the way in a bloated pot.

Turn: the CO x perhaps confirms the idea that he was drawing to the nut flush. But the BTN bet seems nutted to me, as Docvail suggests. This is the point to get off the train. An older beer-drinking gent is unlikely to stab at a protected pot when he could be xr'd by the CO. If we're on our A-game we fold here.

Ap river: we don't beat A4o. Even at this price I'm folding. If he bluffed, nice game Sir.

I think buy-in is 300 for 1/2, but I may be mis-remembering.
I normally go to Foxwoods, but I do go to MS.
In my experience, the 2/5 game is orders-of-magnitude tougher than 1/2 at MS and very reg-heavy. You are much more likely to find a softer spot at Foxwoods 2/5.

The buy-in is $400. It was $300 for a long time (as Spanishmoon remembers) but was raised to $400 when they upped the rake to $6 + $1. Foxwoods raised their rake (they did so before Mohegan) but never upped the buy-in. Personally, I still buy in for $300 most times and then add on for the extra $100 later on in the session when I am comfortable.

I am mostly still shot-taking the $2/$5 games, but here is my take: it's a mixed bag. The best time to play is usually when $5/$10 is currently running, or not going to run at all, as that game is typically a reg battle and absorbs all of the studied players. If there is a healthy $5/$10 list, I usually just wait until they call that game. The $2/$5 pool has a bunch of older nit grinders, a few well-known fish/whales, and then a rotating cast of randoms who are usually pretty bad. The buy-in is capped at $1000.

In my limited experience, the games in New Hampshire are significantly more "action" whereas CT games play tight-passive but are still soft. Other MS regs on here can pipe in if their read is different.

FWIW, my take on BTN's turn size (and decision to flat on the flop) is that he was NOT likely to have JT, as $1/$2 players will typically pour money in with that hand on a flush draw board, trying to stack AK or fold a flush draw. OTF, I was more worried that CO had JT, but once he checks turn, his hand looks a lot like a draw or maybe a bad TP.

I agree that AK and AQ are in range (although perhaps he raises pre with AK at least some of the time) but also wondered if $1/$2 randoms won't often check back river with those hands?

You're using a population read about 1/2 players that may not apply to the old guy who's been drinking and has his chips in fish stacks.

I recently played in a game with a rec who repeatedly flat called river bets when she was holding the nuts, rather than raising. She also loved to donk in weird spots and with sizes that made no sense, and would chase weak draws. Don't ask me to explain fish logic. I can't.

If you or I had JT here, we'd be trying to get all the money in, somehow. Fish worry about losing customers if they start blasting off with the nuts, and don't always think enough about the EV differences between slow playing to get multiple calls vs fast-playing to get stacks in vs a single opponent.

Don't get me wrong. If you called down with KQ, I wouldn't think it was terrible, and don't expect to lose 100% of the time.

Result:

Not seen results....

It's a new table, I'm fine with preflop as that's H's default size.

Flop I'm fine to check/call, esp. for this size. Raising is problematic because we don't really know much and 2 other people called, and folding seems a bit tight without more reads but then our hand basically never gets better. With any kind of read that the fish aren't spew calling everything post, I'd be more tempted to sigh fold flop due to the two callers (knowing we're getting bluffed a decent amount but position and future streets are a problem).

Turn: Given the description of BTN I'd be likely to raise the turn. CO could have a lot after flop bet and turn check on a brick, people will just stab QJ here and CO might have thought it was fine to bluff air.

BTN seems very unlikely to have better than our two pair for this size, IMO. This size seems very random Ax heavy and too bad at the game to realize it's not a bet (or even a call pre).
I understand if we make it 180 and then fold to a shove, it's super exploitable ... but eh. this is probably the worst value raise I have here.

Would rather fold flop than turn.

River: As played, I probably sigh call for pot odds ... don't feel as good about it though, kind of hoping BTN has a weird bluff or something like AJ that he's overplaying.

Now looking (the results call to me)...

Honestly, not too surprised V had a better hand, and wasn't necessarily expecting it to be JT. AK and AQ are also in range at these stakes, in this line, with this type of opponent.

Also not surprised someone had KXcc here. Somewhat surprised it's K2cc, but maybe I shouldn't be. CO might have had a shot if he over-bet the flop and bombed the turn. I'd certainly have given him credit for JT, and would probably fold AQ on the BTN if I saw that line from CO.

A better player might not stab the turn and barrel river with AQ here. Thinking we can call with KQ because JT would go bigger is overlooking that V doesn't need JT to win, he just needs to beat KQ, and there are damned few hands he can have that take this line and don't beat KQ.

It's extremely optimistic to think he'd take this line with AJ or AT. Those hands would be happy to take a free showdown when two opponents call turn.

Also optimistic to think KXcc barrels the river, for the same reason. Two callers - someone has a hand that is too good to fold when the flush bricks. The only KXcc combos that make any sense are KJ and KT, blocking the JT straight combos, and most low stakes recs aren't going to figure that out and also bet small like this.

I think people are underestimating how strong KdQd is here, even multiway. Yes, JT is the nuts, but how often is someone really flatting JT pre and then betting just $30 into six players on this flop? Most $1/$2 players go bigger with it, especially on a wet board like this. And with you holding KdQd, you block a lot of the combos that beat you.

To me, this is a great spot to check-raise. You’re ahead of tons of hands—naked Ax, worse two pairs, pair + draw combos—and you deny equity from flush and straight draws that would love to see a turn. Live players at this level also hate facing big bets with marginal hands, so you’ll often just take it down or get called by worse.

Checking is fine if you’re planning to play aggressively later, but if you're going into passive mode, you’re letting everyone realize equity too cheaply. I’d rather put people in the cage now when your hand is almost always good and still has outs when behind.