At low stakes, a river c/r is always nutted vs. this line makes no sense
Which principle controls here? I probably should've raised the turn. As played, do you call the river shove? It's tough to put him on QT after he checks flop, calls a tiny turn bet on a very wet board, and then checks the river when I haven't shown any strength and there's no reasons to suspect I'll bet river. Also, it's a bomb pot, which I'm fairly new to and still struggling with bomb pot dynamics--a lot of people play very differently.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
PL Omaha 1(BB)
BB ($191.85) [VPIP: 21.5% | PFR: 14.7% | AGG: 22.3% | Flop Agg: 23.5% | Turn Agg: 23.8% | River Agg: 23.7% | 3Bet: 5.7% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 16844]
CO ($141.34) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 27.7% | Flop Agg: 25.8% | Turn Agg: 30.9% | River Agg: 35.2% | 3Bet: 6.4% | 4Bet: 12.7% | Hands: 8298]
HERO ($111.72) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 20.8% | AGG: 30.3% | Flop Agg: 33% | Turn Agg: 35.7% | River Agg: 25.3% | 3Bet: 7.8% | 4Bet: 14.6% | Hands: 292684]
SB ($358.86) [VPIP: 61.3% | PFR: 27.9% | AGG: 18% | Flop Agg: 21.1% | Turn Agg: 18.7% | River Agg: 14.5% | 3Bet: 12% | 4Bet: 6.4% | Hands: 4488]
Dealt to Hero: 8♥ T♠ K♦ 8♦
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.34 effective]
Flop ($20): 9♠ K♥ J♦
SB Checks, BB Checks, CO Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($20): 9♠ K♥ J♦ 7♥
SB Bets $5 (Rem. Stack: $348.86), BB Folds, CO Calls $5 (Rem. Stack: $131.34), HERO Calls $5 (Rem. Stack: $101.72)
River ($35): 9♠ K♥ J♦ 7♥ 5♦
SB Checks, CO Checks, HERO Bets $24.85 (Rem. Stack: $76.87), SB Folds, CO Raises To $107.68 (Rem. Stack: $23.66)
Spoiler
CO shows: J♠ 6♦ 3♥ 9♣
HERO wins: $235.02
7 Replies
I would say it more, "a river c/r is usually nutted" at low stakes but def not always
And now you're countering that against the fact the nuts has not changed from the flop, the turn brought a FD and no one indicated they had a strong enough hand to be betting big/raising to protect vs that. Literally nothing about his line looks nutted except that he's piling money in after you bet but he chks to you when you are also pretty unlikely to have a hand that can bet for value here
I'd put a decent bit more weight on the line making 0 sense and expect to see something like Txxxhh or Qxxxhh a good amount
When things don’t make sense I call and reload.
Very easy call for me. He thinks you can't have it and doesn't understand he can't have it.
Its only ever "always nutted" bc so few times its looked up that no one has even seen when ppl are bluffing it. A lot of ppl bluff blast these spots if theyre the type to get ool as they know how nutted it looks. Dont scare yourself into folding tippy top of range bc you dont have the singular nuts
It's tough to put him on QT after he checks flop, calls a tiny turn bet on a very wet board, and then checks the river when I haven't shown any strength and there's no reasons to suspect I'll bet river.
By your own logic, villain knows you rarely have QT there. In your spot I call all day long. Villain's range is stuffed full of missed flush draws, missed straight draws, and 2p. He also has a decent amount of T8 & 86 which he thinks he's check-raising for value.
Outcome: I called, villain had 2 pair with no blockers.
You're at the top of your range, and supposed to call here sometimes with the second nuts anyway.
Well, he had a blocker to the third nuts, but I don't think banks are cashing those cheques
