Top two facing a large river lead -- is this always a call?

Snap call?
He's repping K9, TJ, 89, Q9 and missed draws.

You only really lose to TJ.

Question is can we value jam? Maybe or maybe not.

Imho when he check/call turn he has more marginal hands then draws.
Donk potting river seems to be alot of 2pairs.

raise flop

This could very well be true, but I was thinking that leading for pot only really reps JT and 99 that got sticky on turn. Part of the issue may just be how nitty Mohegan Sun games are -- for me, a pot-sized river bet in a 3b pot is basically nuts or nothing.

I agree that it is somewhat hard for him to have JT when he checks turn though, especially given that he barreled a really bad gutshot in the other hand history, so maybe snap call is still appropriate.

I thought about it. I just felt like I didn't have enough value on KQ8fd to raise much of anything (88, some KQ, some QQ that doesn't 4b, not much else) whereas I have a million draws. The $20 cbet also felt pretty weak (he cbet $30 on almost the same board, with almost the same configuration in the previous hand history) and I figured that he would continue to bluff turns and rivers a lot versus call.

Agree that this is a clear call. I don't expect to see tons of bluffs in this line, but he also just doesn't really have any value that wants to play this way? JTs mostly (always?) bets turn and 99 should probably check/fold the turn. Plus you can potentially beat K9s or chop with a weirdly played KQ.

Calling pre is fine but it is also a good 4bet spot IMO. V is somewhat unlikely to be 3betting light after showing T8s in the other hand but, at the same time, T8s is a pretty out-of-line 3bet in the first place, so his range could be very wide. You will get 5bet jammed on sometimes, but it is really hard for him to 5bet jam with a hand with a hand that isn't completely dominating you, so having to fold in those spots isn't so bad.

Raise flop to rep a flush draw. As played obviously call river.

River is whatever vs. most people ... would guess that it's almost entirely JT and blocking bluffs, so you have to work out how much he's bluffing vs. the 3 combos. (maybe 9 or 11 combos. if he loves JTo for some reason) of having it ... but after showing T8s I'm never folding and if he's bluffing TT he almost has to be way overbluffing river.

Would consider folding pre. even for the small size, hitting one pair sucks a lot with our hand and we lose to A4s ... so it's difficult to call down if we both miss.
We do have BTN though, and again seeing the T8s 3bet would make me call and consider a 4bet "bluff".

Flop raise is mostly obvious, unless you are calling because you think V mostly has much worse hands that will fold.

Turn would bet bigger, esp. after just calling the small flop bet.
If you are trying to trigger V to do something weird, then betting smaller is also an option (but then he called air that almost never improves and bluffed river, so wtf do I know).

Hand looks fine. Snap call on river, well played.

I 100 percent know the player you mentioned that buys short and I think I know villian. If I'm right about the V it's very frustrating in your river spot cuz normally it's a sigh call for me but with this V (again if I'm right) he does have a lot of J10 in his range. Again, making an assumption that I know the villain. I feel like I may have even been at the table for this hand. I think you said you never played with him so in that case I would not feel great about it but I probably quickly flip in one chip

Grunch:

PRE - Unsure what the normal raise size is in this game, but if we assume the nit-fish isn't limping in from the CO with a plan to fold, and we know the aggro kid tends to use smaller 3B sizes, I think an argument could be made for opening to a larger size than we did here.

When he 3B's using a smallish size from the SB, after seeing him do it with T8s, I'd be tempted to 4B, but our hand is probably too in-between, and he may have shown that hand as advertising, so flatting is probably the best play.

FLOP - I'd think he'd size up with a strong hand on this two-flush / two-Broadway board. This c-bet size seems like 1P at best, and otherwise just a range-bet.

I'd want to raise, but I wouldn't want to go too big, and let his bluffs off the hook, or give him a reason to hero-fold 1P. I think a min-click here would be good. It takes back the betting lead, he probably isn't folding to a min-click, and there's a chance he thinks it's weak and puts in a 3B.

TURN - When he checks, he's either giving up with his air-ball bluffs, which won't call a bet of any size, or he's pot-controlling with worse value, or he's slowing down with a draw, hoping to get a free or cheap card.

I don't like using bet sizes between 1/2 and full pot on the turn. I'd want to target his worse value and draws with an over-bet here, like $150.

RIVER - I don't love it, but it seems like a fairly straightforward call when the FDFD missed. If he has a set or a straight, nice hand, good game.

Part of the reason I don't like medium-sized turn bets is that they don't really do anything to define our opponents' ranges when they call, and can induce bluffs when obvious draws come in. Like, if we had JT here, would we bet 60% pot on the turn, or would we check back, or use a different size, either smaller or larger?

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IMO, it seems like we're losing some value by not exploiting V's tendencies. My hunch is we're giving him a wide berth because we've mentally labeled him as aggro, but we're overlooking some opportunities to capitalize on the mistakes he's making. For instance...

He's using a small 3B size when OOP. This allows him to 3B with a wider range. We should be looking for opportunities to punish him with some lighter 4B's pre. When we just flat call and make a strong hand, we need to take lines that get max value, like raising when we flop top 2P on a two-flush / two-Broadway board.

We've seen him c-betting from OOP with air. That almost certainly means he's c-betting too much, especially when he chooses smaller sizing. We should be looking for spots to raise aggressively, both with value and high-equity bluffs, like 86dd on QJ7dd.

He's not sizing up with his turn barrels. In the 86dd vs T8cc hand, his turn bet was barely 2x his flop bet. That's often a sizing tell indicating a bluff or weak value. When the top card pairs, it seems very unlikely he has a very strong hand. Sure enough, all he had was GSSD.

Without knowing anything about his tendencies on the river, this pot-sized-bet tells us he's capable of making big river bets. Whether this is for value or a bluff, or some sort of merge, we should be looking for lines on earlier streets that don't let him get to the river with such a wide range that we're just guessing what to do with top 2P.

So, in this hand, I think we should at least consider 4B'ing pre. I definitely think we should be raising the flop, and sizing WAY up on the turn, to get max value when he has a hand that wants to continue.

If we call, and V shows JT or 99, I'd watch to see what size he uses when he barrels river with a bluff. If he bets smaller with bluffs, we can exploit the crap out of him and just let him continue to play this way. We can over-fold or raise for value when he bets big, and over-call or raise when he bets small.

On the other hand, if he shows a bluff here, it becomes more important to find lines that narrow his range on each street.

Honestly, does it matter how much value you have, against this V, in this set-up? Does it matter if your range is mostly draws? Why would those things matter, and how?

Walk it back from the reveal here, and the reveal in the prior hand history. We know he's capable of 3B'ing light from the SB, and c-betting too often on the flop, and barreling turn with minimal equity after his c-bet gets called. Now we know he's capable of firing a huge bet as a bluff on the river after he checked turn, and you bet.

Think about what he did here - he literally beats nothing you'd bet for value on the turn, and he's double-blocking your OESD's. Did he have the Th? Not sure it matters. The point is he called turn with a weak hand, very likely with a plan to bomb the river on any draw-completing card.

Now go back to the flop here, and assume our range is mostly draws. Is he folding TT to a raise? If he thinks we have too many draws, probably not. Does he ever 3B vs a min-click? If he's capable of taking these lines, I think he might.

What would he do with JT if we raised flop? Fold? Probably not. Let's put him in the blender by raising flop, and bombing the turn.

In the prior hand, he continued to bluff the turn, but only for a small size. If you had QJ on QJ7Qdd, are you happy just flatting his $70 turn bet? Do you think he fires a huge bet on the river, even if he spikes an offsuit 9?

I doubt he's going to punt a bunch of money in the first hand, even if he makes his straight. But this hand shows he's going to put a ton of pressure on your SDV when an obvious draw gets there on the river.

You're letting him realize his equity too cheaply when you have a good hand, and letting him run over you when you don't. You need to be playing back at him A LOT, both when you have thick value, and when you just have a high equity semi-bluff, and over-fold when you've got air or weak value.

If you're only betting 2P+ on the turn, and checking back with KJ or AQ, he's going to continue to put you in the blender. I'm guessing if you did check back turn with those hands, you'd fold when he blasts the river?

Do you even have KJ or AQ here? Would you never 4B those hands pre, either for value or as a bluff, against this V, when he's using a 3x 3B size from OOP? I think you should consider 4B'ing those hands - KJ as a bluff, AQ for value, as an exploit against this V.

Do you ever have KK or QQ here, or would you always 4B those pre? Think about it - if you're 4B'ing those hands pre, he know you don't have them on the flop, and you're capped at 2P on the turn.

If you're not going to 4B him aggressively pre, and you're not going to start raising him aggressively post, you're going to repeatedly find yourself in these spots with marginal hands facing big river bets.

Conversely, if you're 4B'ing him some pre, both with bluffs and value, and playing back at him post, he's going to have a hard time knowing what to do with TT on the river, when your range includes straights, sets, 2P, 1P, and whiffed draws.

Play back at him. He's making mistakes. Invite him to make more. Exploit his aggrotard ways for max value. Put the fear of God into him, and make him question all his life choices.

4b pre

flop fine, most aggros know this board is better for them and will blast turn on it if you give rope.

turn bigger, when he checks here is hand is heavily weighted towards stuff like KJ that will call at 2/3 pot and maybe more. im fairly surprised he checked TT.

i was going to say river is gross and a really tought spot, but think about it. hes aggro, the board is better for him. why wouldnt he barrel JT on the turn w/o SD value? so he should never JT here. I actually think he often has some Qx or mediocre Kx here he's deciding to turn into a bluff - something like Qx w/ FD.