AA just call down the whole way right?

Very tough spot.

I'd rather raise flop than guess the rest of the way. If he drilled a set, he will escalate to defend against our NF draws.. If he's drawing he might slow down. I respect a UTG open from a straightforward player. He has a hand.

AP river: The 8c is a good card for us because it makes V's 88 less likely. I suppose if he has JJ he is stacking us. I discount his KK based on preflop. He has AhQh and AhTh he might have overplayed against 3 combos of JJ and one 88. We get 4-1 so I'm calling but very unhappy.

I still prefer to raise flop than guess the rest of the way.

Are you raise-folding flop or raise-calling off on flop?

I don't think we can r/f the flop. He can have so many draws on this board.

River is a good card for you. The draws brick. You lose to x8, but beat KJ now. Also, really unlikely he has 88 now and he probably 4!s KK, so really only JJ is likely for a flopped set.

Um... turn is already that big, just ship? He's not folding any draws any hand with that size unless he has a gutshot or pure bluff.
River is a snap call.

Otherwise it's fine.

Maybe 3bet a little bigger pre for being oop. It's less than 3x oop right now. My standard is 3.5x-4x oop, 3x ip.

We only lose to sets or 8xhh. Both are coolers.

Grunch:

Yeesh. This is uncomfortable.

Yes, I think we should just call down.

Reasoning is that most low stakes recs are going to 4B with KK pre, and while he can play JJ this way, it's just three combos, and JJ might slow play on the flop, even with two hearts on board. It's good that we don't have the Ah in our hand, so he can have AQhh or maybe some other AXhh combos and play them this way. Plus some other draws like QT or T9. Also I'd think if he's going to donk the flop with 2P+ he'd go larger than 1/2 pot when the board is pretty wet.

Honestly I think the turn is the critical decision point, when we'll have less than 1/2 pot left. I probably just stick it in there and pray he has AK or some AXhh combo that can't release. Here again, if he's got 2P+, I'd think he'd just over-bet jam, so his less than PSB smells a little fishy.

Sorry if you lost. That's a tough spot to get away from your hand. If he was blasting off with a draw that bricked, well played. If he had 8x, just flip the table over and curse the dealer out.

Unless I'm misreading the OP, he's on the BTN, so he's not OOP.

What? Isn't he in the bb? Oh my bad. I'm confused by the first sentence.

Calling as well. We need what, 20% here?

Sorry you lost, but there's a lot of things in this V's range beside 8xhh and JJ that might play it like this. Variety of KJ, AK---surprising that isn't mentioned more in thread as a possibility, other Axhh draws.

Middle aged rec might think AK is close to the nuts here with the board pairing.

Should I raise on the flop - I'll get re-raised by V's value hands, and possibly by nut flush draws and combo draws; stacks are likely getting in this way. Would V ever fold AK to a raise...probably not.
If V has a value hand (2 pair, set), and I just flat call the flop, are stacks going in anyway by the river? If so, then I think it does make sense for me to raise the flop. If I think V has a strong hand and I might be able to get away from my hand without getting stacked, it makes sense to just call the flop. But in retrospect, given the stack sizes, it makes sense for me to just raise the flop.

I raise flop

It's a snap call as played. I think given the flop dynamic you could just jam all 700 in on the flop.

Why would you raise flop when he donks for 1/2 pot, this shallow? Hard to get called by hands that are drawing slim.

I think jam turn with not that much left and possible draws.

Results:

I'm guilty of over-playing my strong hands on the flop in spots like this. I've come to learn that the risk of letting go of the betting lead is often more than compensated for by way of how many good things can happen when we delay our aggression until a later street.

Another way to look at it is this - if we're not getting away from our hand, AND we don't think V is getting away from his, AND we're not sure our hand is best, then there's very little risk in waiting and seeing more of the run out. Potentially we might have an opportunity to turn our hand into a profitable bluff on a later street, with the right run out.

Like, say V has all the best draws, and all the 2P/sets here. When we're in position, wouldn't we like to use that to our advantage, by seeing what V does on the turn?

If he checks a turn brick, we can still bet. If he jams, we can still call or fold. If he bets less than all in, we can still call or raise.

The problem with raising flop to get called is his donk-calling range is probably going to have a ton of equity, and we hate it if he jams. His donking range may have some hands that will fold to our raise - hands we want to keep in, and let him keep betting. So raising strengthens his range when he calls, whereas flatting keeps it wider.

Would you play this differently if you had AhAx?

AA vs. KK. If he makes a set, he stacks you. If neither of you makes a set, you usually stack him. He could have 4!, but low stakes.

I mean... I already said I wasn't giving V KK when he doesn't 4B pre, so I don't think having a different AA combo changes much if he's going to play top set this way on the flop. I guess having the Ah in our hand makes me even less likely to raise flop, because he has fewer bluffs and we'll have more bluff opportunities on heart run-outs.

When he opens pre and flats the 3B, then donks for 1/2 pot, with this low SPR, I just think he's going to have 2P+ or a high equity combo draw so often that it doesn't make sense to raise when we're either way behind or only slightly ahead. Without the Ah in our hand, he has more bluff combos on range, so I think keeping his range wide is better than turning our hand into a bluff by raising (or raising for protection, if that's what we're calling it).

I guess part of my reasoning is I'd expect AK, KQ, QThh and KJ to flat pre and donk this flop way more than KK or JJ. Even if we give V all those hands, I'm not sure I see the value in raising flop, with or without the Ah in our hand, but definitely harder to see it when we have the Ah.

vs UTG open 7x i'm 3b bigger just because they rarely fold when they go they open that large.

Maybe make it $135 - $150. I'm fine with 3x if he is solid and balanced but a $35 open from UTG just screams a huge hand.

As played i'm fine with just calling it off here. Once we call turn we are never folding. If you wanted to fold the turn I could see it - but i'm fine with just losing if he out flopped us. You aren't really deep enough to fold in this spot unless you just know you're beat from a table feel. No one can really help you with that though - from a theroy based question - it's a call down.

Seems like an amateur player, opening to 35 UTG at 2/5 with a big hand and not 4-betting KK.

I would have been worried about JJ with the large open, as KK might 4!. However, he could play AK this way.

So take a note and move on.

Next time when he barrel and makes a big turn bet, we probably can laydown 1pair with ease.

Since he donks with top set, I wonder does he have a check/raising range. His checking range might be capped.

Hands like these are 'coolers' until we know how villain plays.

After we got coolered by opponent, we should make adjustments playing the same villain next time.

If we ever get to play similar hands again, we can start making tight folds and feeling good about it.

What adjustment should we make when an opponent gets lucky by flopping a set on a super wet board in a 3B pot?

Are we just folding all our premium over-pairs whenever V donks half pot on a wet board? Suppose he does that with all his nutted hands, all his draws, and some total air.

Are we just going to fold everything that isn't the nuts to this 1/2 pot flop donk, because V out-flopped us once, something that will happen about 20% of the time?

Seems like the only adjustment to be made is splitting our range into hands that jam turn and hands that fold turn. Can't see how AA is a fold rather than a jam, unless we know for certain that A) V has no bluffs here and B) V never adjusts to our adjustment by having bluffs here.

It was a cooler the moment the K hit the flop, regardless of whether or not we know how V plays.