Nasty rivers in a NLH double board bomb pot
$5, 8-way NLH DBBP
Hero has A♦️J♦️ UTG
V is a reg in CO, $750 eff
Flops ($40):
A♣️Q♣️7♠️
J❤️9♠️4❤️
Hero bets $25, only V calls
Turns ($90):
A♣️Q♣️7♠️J♠️
J❤️9♠️4❤️T♦️
Hero bets $65, V calls
Rivers ($220):
A♣️Q♣️7♠️J♠️T❤️
J❤️9♠️4❤️T♦️K❤️
Hero checks, V bets $200…
4 Replies
Fold river, you are essentially calling a 2x PSB in a spot that prob is underbluffed, your hand on the bottom is dust (hence the 2psb comment). If he shows you QJ he got you and if it’s something wilder make a note and move on…
I would overbet turn, if not def. bet a bit bigger.
River is kind of close, it's only PSB and you are mostly only losing to KJ/Kc9c/Kc4c (5 combos) with maybe luckboxed TT (1 combo) and maybe some KK/KQ/KT/QQ/AQ (but those hands all played slower than I'd expect from a reg)
The reason it's close is that I think it's very likely V has a K or a Q, so you are only getting half the pot when you win.
If you are only playing today, I'd lean fold ... but if you are going to play a lot in this game I'd call.
Close. You are probably good on one board, but you need 33%
Most likely he has one board locked up with either a K or Q (sometimes KQ but I think that'd raise the turn). So if half the time you get 50% (Qx) and the other half you get nothing (Kx), this is a fold.
Any possibility the reg is getting wily?