Can someone please explain an EV calc formula for this preflop NLHE spot
This should be fairly easy for someone smart, I think
Preflop $450 in dead money when it gets to me
I shove $1640 effective (HU pot)
Villain folds 63% of his range
Villain has to call $1455
I have 30% equity when called
Is the shove profitable and what's the formula?
9 Replies
There are three outcomes:
1) Villain folds: +$450 | 63%
2) Villain calls and you win: +$2090 | 11.1% (37% * 30%)
3) Villain calls and you lose: -$1640 | 25.9% (37% * 70%)
$450*63% + $2090*11.1% - $1640*25.9% = +$91
But positive EV on a shove doesn't necessarily mean we should shove. Calling or raising smaller could still be higher EV.
There are three outcomes:
1) Villain folds: +$450 | 63%
2) Villain calls and you win: +$2090 | 11.1% (37% * 30%)
3) Villain calls and you lose: -$1640 | 25.9% (37% * 70%)
$450*63% + $2090*11.1% - $1640*25.9% = +$91
But positive EV on a shove doesn't necessarily mean we should shove. Calling or raising smaller could still be higher EV.
That last sentence is an important point. In many spots there are multiple actions that are +EV. I would expect, for instance, that if we are dealt AA, that ANY action (other than folding) PF would be +EV. There will generally be only one action that maximizes our EV, though.
I’m confused (what’s new?).
If 1640 is the effective stack, then isn’t that the call amount to a shove? But OP states villain has to call 1445. This implies hero’s bet is a raise. Zamadhi’s calculation is correct for the call amount = shove amount (1640), but that calculation ignores OP’s reference to a 1445 villain call, or perhaps I should say, seemingly ignores.
Did villain call = 1640 or 1445? If 1640 what is the 1445?
I’m confused (what’s new?).If 1640 is the effective stack, then isn’t that the call amount to a shove? But OP states villain has to call 1445. This implies hero’s bet is a raise. Zamadhi’s calculation is correct for the call amount = shove amount (1640), but that calculation ignores OP’s reference to a 1445 villain call, or perhaps I should say, seemingly ignores.Did villain ca
I’m just guessing here, but OP said there was 450 in dead money. That had to get there somehow. Perhaps villain had previously raised to 195 and therefore had 1445 more to call hero’s shove of 1640?
There are three outcomes:
1) Villain folds: +$450 | 63%
2) Villain calls and you win: +$2090 | 11.1% (37% * 30%)
3) Villain calls and you lose: -$1640 | 25.9% (37% * 70%)
$450*63% + $2090*11.1% - $1640*25.9% = +$91
But positive EV on a shove doesn't necessarily mean we should shove. Calling or raising smaller could still be higher EV.
It’s not entirely clear, but I think villain might have already put in some of the dead money. OP said that he had to call 1445 when he shoved 1640 and that 1640 is the effective stack. From that I think villain had previously put in a 195 bet.
This means that when villain calls and hero wins, his win amount is 1445 (villains call) + 450 (dead money) = $1895. That gives 0.63x450+0.111x1895-0.259x1640 =69.09 for the EV of the shove.
It’s not entirely clear, but I think villain might have already put in some of the dead money. OP said that he had to call 1445 when he shoved 1640 and that 1640 is the effective stack. From that I think villain had previously put in a 195 bet. This means that when villain calls and hero wins, his win amount is 1445 (villains call) + 450 (dead money) = $1895. That gives 0.63x45
That's what I thought, hero's bet is actually a raise, and wrote out the equation as
EV=0.63*450+(1-0.63)*(0.3*(450+1445)-0.7*1640)=69.1
OP here. Yes, my shove is a back-raise vs. squeeze ($185) after flatting an initial open. There were straddle/limpers (maybe, i forget now) and one caller of squeeze to
give us the $450 before i went berzerk with my back shove.
