turn boats me: GII or set the trap?

Stack sizes would help with the answer.

Call

Another "call" vote, but how many after you are left to act? If it's going to be heads-up if you call, I don't mind 3!

Call will have a 200 pot for the River and >410 back. Seems tough to get the rest in.

Are we worried about A9 at all?

Call. We might not be good here, and then he'll pwn you.

Yes, I suppose this is relevant information. Original raiser checked, I bet, V raised, everyone else GTFO'd.

A9s and 98s are both candidate hands for V. In fact, if he has 9x, those are probably his likeliest hands, along with T9.

I called.

What are you doing with this river?

River (~$200): J♥

He definitely 3-bets JJ pre, so J9s is the only new hand I need to worry about.

The only way to get more money and not get pwned is to check/call. It might seem weak, but he has position and is either using it or can beat 88. Bet/folding would suck!

So, one A9s (right?) one 98s? And 99 ofc. And now maybe two J9s to be concerned about? In addition if he's loose enough to have the off-suit combos along, that'll be much more.

You bet/called on a BFD 8. JT might be in your range. 87? Or 76. Or 98 yourself, though you probably bet that on the flop, I think. Also think V would too, along with all of the 9x combos like J9, but you know V way better than we do.

There just aren't a lot of massive value combos V could have, that IMHO make checking back flop that deep worthwhile. As it is, they still would have to 2x pot on river to get stacks in. I'd be irate if I flopped quads and that happened.

X-call is probably best. They'll gleefully bluff shove river over a bet, right? But probably won't lead for value for 2x pot, since you're never calling?

You could be on some draw that whiffed. I'm trying to visualize what part of H's range can call any bet, if it looks like a x-giveup on river. When all the draws whiffed except QT lol.

Maybe JT?? I think it's fairly slender. So hopefully you don't have to call anything too massive.

It would, and I had no intention of doing it.

I checked and he tanked and then checked behind. I was so pissed at missing at least one street of value that I immediately turned over my boat and he mucked without showing. Later I asked him what he had and he said only that he "had the hand you wanted me to have," which probably means 9x.

I'm still burned up about it. Never been this mad about a pot I've actually won. Really wish I would have at least stuck out a river spaz-bet of $50 or something just to get some more value out of it.

I think you play it well. You didn’t miss a street of value. V was never calling hero if hero donked the river.

Played fine. I highly doubt he had a 9.

Very clear call. We still get another bet or stacks in vs 9x, but don't want to fold out the rest vs raise.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - seems fine.

TURN - My first thought is - "Why do the pulling when the donkey will do the pushing?" Which would indicate we should just flat call the raise. Pray he picked up the flush draw and either makes his hand, or feels like he has to bluff the river.

We're not necessarily ahead here. He could have A9, 99, or 98. But there are a lot more combos of AX with a good kicker or 9x that were slow playing the flop and are now looking to build the pot before another spade rolls off.

Whatever we do, I'd take a moment to pause, long enough that it doesn't look like we're snap calling. I'd use that time to think about and prepare for what we'll do on the river, depending on what the card is.

If the river is just a brick, I'd probably snap check, hoping to induce. If it's a spade, I'd probably donk, because he's not likely to bet Ax or 9x for value, and he'll have a hard time folding 9x.

It matters what the suits on board are, especially the suit of that ace. If it's the ace of spades, it's probably less likely he has a flush draw, and more likely he's just got Ax or 9x. If it's NOT the ace of spades, he might have the NFD, and will snap off a river donk-jam.

Just be careful if the river is a spade that might have made him a bigger boat. I'd be leery of any card above the 6s, and would really like it much better if it's a low spade. Actually, there are a ton of cards that could come on the river that could either make him a better hand or kill the action.

I dunno...thinking about it more, if the spades on board are the 9s and 8s, not the As, I'd think he has a lot of AX + NFD's and trip 9's here, and he's not folding any of those hands to a 3B, so I might just 3B-jam now, praying it looks bluffy and he snaps.

So...I think this is one of those spots Bart Hanson has talked about in some of his videos and podcasts, wherein you've played your hand like a bluff-catcher on earlier streets, and then on a later street your hand is significantly upgraded to think value. Bart says we're supposed to continue playing the hand as a bluff catcher, which would indicate checking rather than betting the river.

If he had the spade draw, he may feel compelled to bluff at it, after he repped so much strength on the turn, and we check again. He should probably bet all his good 9x combos, which would be K9/Q9, and if he's capable of going thinner, T9 and 97, though I'm not sure how often he has 97 when he gets here this way.

You could block bet, but you're kind of in a pickle if he raises, because there's almost no bet size you can use that won't price you into calling if he raises, unless you think he's only raising with better hands, and I'm not sure how we'd come to that conclusion, if he's a capable and thinking player.

From his perspective, our line looks like a missed draw, or maybe a weak Ax. He's very unlikely to think you have 99, 98, or 88 when you don't bet the flop or 3B the turn. He shouldn't need to bet huge to get us to fold our missed draws if we check.

Alternatively, if he has a bigger boat, he also can't bet huge when the best hand we're likely to have is just weak AX. If we check and he does bet huge, I think we have to look him up. If he has it, and we lose, it sucks, but our hand is so under-repped and so close to the absolute top of our range that folding would seem like a massive blunder.

I wouldn't necessarily believe him if he said he had 9x, or just implied it. There aren't that many 9x combos he should have that aren't strong enough to bet when you check to him again and the flush draws brick. Like, how often is he showing up with worse than 97s?

He might have had Ax, but he could also just have a ton of missed draws, and been sitting there thinking about whether or not he should try to get you off a hand with another bet, but decided to give up before checking back.

Had you bet, what size would you take? Is there any size that he could flat call if his hand wasn't strong enough to bet for value? Probably not.

I think we could have jammed turn, but otherwise, you played it fine.