QQ OOP with Ace high flop

just fold

release!

Interesting. Afterwards I was walking through the hand with ChatGPT, and it concluded I should call the river because V has a lot of bluffs.

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In theory, V has his entire calling range preflop that bets flop and checks turn, which should mean plenty of air.

But it’s possible, given our read, that he raises too infrequently, manifesting in a stronger than average preflop call 3 bet range. And if he’s been doing a lot of calling and not a lot of 3 betting, he may be underfiring in this line. It could be fine to Exploitatively fold.

I'm just c betting the flop for around 1/3 is that incorrect?

Feels like it makes it easier to play the rest of the hand but you are just folding out worse mostly.

As played it seems like he could have almost his entire range here and without knowing his bluffing frequency hard to say what to do.

Results:

Nice call. I'd have folded and felt good about it.

Probably at least cbet, then maybe fired another turn barrel. Though after typing that, I'm slapping myself at trying to get a passive, large open-calling V off the Ace they obviously have. Still cbetting tho.

Marc Goone from Hungry Horse Poker on YouTube suggests checking very often when out of position to villains who will overstab at pots and potentially telegraph their hand with their bet sizing.

And right, If you bet QQ on this flop, how often do you get a call from a worse hand?

In a live game, you have the benefit of trying to get a live read on the player as you decide whether to call or fold on later streets.

I imagine Vs call worse here rather infrequently. I'm also doing this sizing with all of the Ax I might be 3! out of the SB too. While worse may not call, hands with some equity very may well fold---T9 for instance here---as well as hands that are outright better. Though again on that last, I need to know ahead of time if V is weak-tight enough to fold something like ATs (before the River, ldo) to my "obvious" bigger Ace.

Also, there's a 1/4 of our starting stack's amount in the pot before the flop. We really don't need another call as much as we need V to fold.

Marc's generally talking about opponents stabbing on wet boards with draws present. On flops like A95rb, he's typically checking or over-betting (usually he's talking about when we're IP, not OOP as you are here). That said, I think checking from OOP with QQ is better than c-betting.

It's a tough situation with QQ because our read is that V isn't aggro (at least that's not what I inferred from your OP), and it's hard to find natural bluffs.

His bluffs would all seem to be total air, or something with some showdown value. Most low stakes recs aren't going to find enough of those bluffs on ace-high boards in 3B pots, nor find 60%-ish river bet sizing when they're bluffing.

I appreciate you sharing your logic for calling. I really doubt I would have found this call in game. It would have seemed to me like he could just have a lot of AX in his range that opens and calls our 3B pre, gets nervous when we check-call flop, checks back turn as a result, then regains confidence when we check again on the river, and decides to go for thin value.

Well played, sir.

On A95rb, if we c-bet the flop, I could see opponents calling with JJ / TT, and maybe occasionally some worse PP's like 88 / 77 that are just being stubborn. Maybe 87s or 76s with the ISSD and BDFD calls.

The rest of their calling range very likely has QQ beat, and is going to include a $hlt-ton of AX combos that probably won't let go unless a K or Q hits the turn or river.

On the other hand, if we don't c-bet, I wonder how often opponents assume we're scared of the ace, and decide to start bluffing. If we level ourselves into believing they're FOS when we check and they bet, how far are we going to go, and how much money are we going to lose, continuing with TT-KK here?

That's kind of why I like just checking range from OOP when HU as the PFR. If V checks back, we can make a delayed c-bet on the turn with AK or QQ, and not be too concerned opponents are checking back the flop with their AX. We can just milk our opponents for value by betting small on turn and river, with a hand that's under-repped when we don't c-bet the flop.

Preflop is good.

I’m betting 1/3 on the flop, folding to a raise. Why call a 100 dollar bet oop on a WAWB flop when hero can open instead for the same price? Hero was the 3bettor in the SB. All players will consider hero has AK here.

The question is: on this table, how many combos of AX in V’s range fold to a cbet? Cbetting forces V to make a mistake by calling with pairs and folding with AX. In my cardroom, players make these mistakes all the time.

AP on the river, fold. Now to results…

Nice read. I’m always thrilled to see someone FOS exposed.

What do Hungry Horse Poker students mean when they say a player is a 'little player'?

I played with one of the students and he kept telling his friend that this or that player was a 'little player' like the term had a specific meaning within their community.

I've never heard that expression before, in any of the HH videos, or in any other context.

Already read results and feeling crazy that my default is to just check fold flop here as population exploit? I feel like even on flop fish are not finding enough bluffs and they just have an A very often. Also I think your description of V not raising a lot is wrong because I would not expect described villain to ever open qc7c here.