Bluff or giveup against weird donk 3bp
GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 164.54 BB
SB: 122.78 BB
BB: 103.36 BB
UTG: 359.94 BB
MP: 94.64 BB
CO: 107.74 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♥ A♥
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 10.76 BB, Hero calls 8.26 BB
Flop: (22.02 BB, 2 players) 8♣ J♠ 7♥
BB checks, Hero bets 6.62 BB, BB calls 6.62 BB
Turn: (35.26 BB, 2 players) T♦
BB bets 16.64 BB
Vilain has 21% vpip, 17% PFR, 35% ATS, 8% 3bet over 516 hands
11 Replies
A8s seems like nice hand to put in the flop X back line. Keep in future “coolers” vs A high (AK AQ A5 A4) and dominated Qx Kx backdoor flushdraws (although K6s etc likely missed 3bets). Hand will stay weak middle pair on many runouts, so no need to inflate pot / narrow OOP range imo
Donk is almost B50, and although this seems like a fishy line, it would be a weird line to take with a bluff for OOP (AQ? KQ? 67? 65?), especially when IP supposed to stab kinda polar on flop and can have plenty of good hands by turn (straights/sets/2p/pair+draw/draws). Kinda feels like OOP is being mergey or face up with a hand which has improved or doesn’t want X back, something like TT or 99
I think I’d just fold A8. Bluffcatcher with no redraw equity, not doing great vs set/9x/merges (overpair, Jx?), plus KQ/AQ has a lot of equity if they bluffing. If we're thinking about bluffing, turn seems a bit suicidal and only reps 9x. You could float and delay to the river to rep wider, but the problem is they can keep betting rivers and not give us the opportunity to bluff. Plus board pair is only 11/46 rivers, where they could still improve to boat or just call 9x to chop with 9x. So it's also not clear what future fold equity there is / good runouts
OOP stats also seem a bit tight, at least more associated with someone faceup and nitty than creative/aggro, and less likely to make mergey polarisation errors on turn tbh
So I like fold, but would be curious about how others perceive spot or what MDA says
I would X flop. Turn donk is too weird and we have zero redraw equity. So fold. We don't have to fight for every last 0.01bb with margin hands
Judging from the action we're somewhat likely playing a fish or badreg so flop X is kinda sus. Fish underfold to the stab and regs are about GTO so SDV with backdoors is going to fit into BC region for the turn delay, which will be overstabbed. As likely here.
Agree with Taggsy and Ceres on checking flop plus doesn't this board just smack bb 3 bet range?
Donk is almost B50, and although this seems like a fishy line, it would be a weird line to take with a bluff for OOP (AQ? KQ? 67? 65?), especially when IP supposed to stab kinda polar on flop and can have plenty of good hands by turn (straights/sets/2p/pair+draw/draws). Kinda feels like OOP is being mergey or face up with a hand which has improved or doesn’t want X back, something like TT or 99
Why is donk50 a fishy line on this board texture? Don't you want to be betting small as bb in this spot?
Donk is almost B50, and although this seems like a fishy line, it would be a weird line to take with a bluff for OOP (AQ? KQ? 67? 65?), especially when IP supposed to stab kinda polar on flop and can have plenty of good hands by turn (straights/sets/2p/pair+draw/draws). Kinda feels like OOP is being mergey or face up with a hand which has improved or doesn’t want X back, someth
Btn will be bluffing/block betting a ton on this turn, so you would rather check your nutted hands. Solver is never betting as bb.
Thanks guys. I tend to bet 100% of my range 33% on this type of board on the flop to simplify, but this might be the best checking hand in my range.
Lets say I check and bb bets 50% on the turn, what's our strategy.
This board smacks btn's range. We have most of the sets, straights, and some 2pairs. We also have all of the top pairs. Turn, vilain has very few Tx and we have all of the suited ones.
I mostly agree, but won't he still have jj aa kk qq tt even 99s as long as other two pair hands? I know btn opened 2.5x however some ppl will play the same range as a 2.2x. If that's the case wouldn't there be more combos of j7s j8s , pairs with a straight draw etc? Doesn't bb have as many top pair hands also aj kj?
Thanks guys. I tend to bet 100% of my range 33% on this type of board on the flop to simplify, but this might be the best checking hand in my range.
Lets say I check and bb bets 50% on the turn, what's our strategy.
I think we still just fold turn because we could already be drawing dead at this point and if we are calling to bluff the river I think we would prefer not having a8s as our bluff here prob better to do it with 55-66 idk. Since this is not a gto line though, I think against their lead out we can most likely estimates the logical bluffs he might or might not have. The issue is that his bluffs will have enough equity here, I suppose you could jam if he checks river assuming he plays his made hands straight.
This board smacks btn's range. We have most of the sets, straights, and some 2pairs. We also have all of the top pairs. Turn, vilain has very few Tx and we have all of the suited ones.
I think I understand now, even though bb could have t9s etc most of their 3b range contain broadways big pairs, ax etc , vs our CALLING range wich contain more small to mid pairs suited connectors etc correct?
Basically we have more hands that hit this board. I was thinking more about the nut advantage here my bad.
