2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Not my favorite team. Onesies are strong, but will need a little luck at RB, and WR seems pretty meh.

Allen, Baker

CMC, Warren, Mason, Sampson, Wright, Shipley, Eli

BTJ, Evans, Ridley, Godwin, Shakir, Palmer, Thielen

Njoku, Kraft

Double stacks are very available today for some reason

Kyler, Maye

Saquon, Monty, Spears, Davis, Dowdle, Hill

MHJ, DK, Ridley, Diggs, Downs, Ky Williams, Coker, TeSlaa

McBride, Henry

I will have no more than 10% of CMC.

I’m trying to hover around 2x the field on cmc, the upside is just so high especially at current price.

If he moves in the 1st half of the 1st rd later in draft season I’ll likely cool off a bit

Mahomes, Stroud

Kyren, Henderson, Bigsby, Ekeler, Shipley, Hunt

ARSB, Worthy, Addison, Shakir, Higgins, Shaheed, Kirk, TeSlaa

Bowers, Henry

That's a nice looking team.

I need to start picking different players haha, my exposures are getting a little to condensed

Allen, JJM

Monty, Jones, Tracy, Allgeier, Giddens, Hunt

ARSB, Nico, Evans, Waddle, Addison, Palmer, TeSlaa

Loveland, Kincaid, Schultz

Carr shares officially dead.

Yeah, I’ve been laying into certain players and combos but getting to the point where I’ll start evening it out. Tough to care sub 50 drafts, and really, I think 100 is about where a meaningful sample starts to matter. And it might be even higher than that.

He’s already late first. ADP of 12.5. I almost never see him fall past 14-15. I’ll be about even, as there are too many other good players in that range.

RIP 11% of my pre draft contests

Thankfully most of my shares were 3 QB teams, so hopefully they’re not all dead lol.

I was at 12%.

Saints players should all fall, since there was still a chance Carr would make it back.

I don’t really want any of them lol. Not a great chance Shough is good. And even if he is, injury means Rattler/Haener.

Pre

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Post

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Only 7% Carr for me.

Pre and post combined. Not sure how Neal is my highest owned, when he's my least favorite Saint.

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Nothing like a “safe” late round pick becoming completely dead in May.

You draft most of it pre?

Looks like it. 15% pre and 5% post

How would you rank these 4 teams?

If he is going 14/15 I'm taking him every time. I wouldn't be overweight overall too him. I think as we get into August and we here great health reports and the casuals start coming in he will move into at least the late mid first. Some people may panic and say "What are we doing here, this is Christian Fing McCaffery". I can see him going top 5 in some drafts. I would try to get the stud WR/CMC combos now that you won't be able to later.

That's how I would play it. The Niners haven't as of yet spent much capital on RBs this off season. He just needs to be healthy. There is no more Deebo to take runs away. They need him badly. I see CMC exactly as he has always been. He can screw it for you by getting hurt or he can win it all for you.

I'm not betting on him being bad or getting injured again, but I am betting on the 9ers understanding his importance in the long run, and not beating him into the ground.

His snap % on his 4 best years were 91%, 93%, 73%, and 76%

I wouldn't be surprised if they keep him around 65%-70% for most of the year to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

This one feels nice finally got hurts on an AJB team in the 5th bc the Smith drafter was on my right

Hurts, Caleb

Jeanty, Mondre, Spears, Ekeler, Dowdle, Hill

AJB, Rashee, DJM, Rome, Golden, Kirk, Ayomanor, TeSlaa

Jonnu, Andrews

Nice squad. I’ll look forward to the first time I can pull it off haha.

Also, with CMC, he has sit risk at the end of the season, and obviously you can say that about a lot of players, but I lean toward SF being closer to last year than the annual SB contenders they have been. Their defense is in pretty rough shape and the offense still has a lot of uncertainty.

He’s certainly a high upside bet. He could be the guy you need in w17. But so could a lot of other guys in his draft range. And that’s all I really care about, so I’ll stay about even.

Also, lol at this segment from a year ago.

A lot of people on X denouncing the latest tool. I’m with them. This stuff is pretty lame in the scheme of things. I know I use SpikeWeek, and it’s certainly RTA to an extent. But the tool doesn’t make draft pick suggestions, it doesn’t place a rating on each pick, etc. It mainly overlays drafter specific data like combo %, exposure %, and correlation options. And then it’s up to me what I want to do with that information.

17 week best ball will never be solved. There are too many variables and no way can you create a tool to solve that aspect. There are obviously human inputs in creating and the use of these tools. But over time, the average team will improve, and these tools will accelerate that process; making it even tougher to realize ROI. And the tools will continue to improve.

Optimizers and tools are the primary reason I don’t bother with DFS.

ETA: UD did ban a tool a year or two ago that was built similarly but actually drafted for you. The auto drafting was the line. I’ll be interested to see what happens next, given we have two BBM winners who are part of two of the bigger influencing sites, building and selling these tools.