KK vs NIT - Can you ever Fold?
Hey all,
Would you ever fold KKs vs this player Type, in this spot?
The gentleman is very Nit and has 6% 3Bet after 2K hands. Also has a 4% Squeeze on 3 out of 81 cases.
PokerStars - €0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 102.8 BB (VPIP: 21.51, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 94)
SB: 26.8 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 115.1 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 15.21, 3Bet Preflop: 5.39, Hands: 1,847)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.88, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.35, Hands: 1,685)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ K♣
Hero raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.2 BB, fold, BB raises to 12.6 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold, BB raises to 115.1 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 75 BB and is all-in
Flop: (202.7 BB, 2 players) 6♥ 5♣ A♠
Turn: (202.7 BB, 2 players) J♣
River: (202.7 BB, 2 players) 8♦
6 Replies
I would not fold once I 4B but if you think his that nitty I would call vs 3B and play postflop.
Yes, calling is actually a good option too, and solver will actually call KK sometimes from these positions.
Interesting spot. I had to figure it out to confirm ^^
Let's say BB's 4% squeeze = JJ+
We can expect tight BB to call our 4b with QQ/JJ ~35% of the time, vs which we print post, and shove AA/AK ~65%. Vs that super linear range we only have ~47% eq (pot odds ~64%), so in theory after the 5b we could actually fold. Which is wild.
So yeah, long way of saying calling the 3b is probably the highest EV option in this specific situation. TIL
Pot odds are around 37%.
If you think guy is jamming only AA and you can comfortably fold to a jam, this makes 4betting better. You don't want to 4bet if his sqz range is KK+AK, but as long as he has QQ and JJ you are good to go.
I would for sure not call the 3bet and call the jam. So often I end up in these spots where I assume that villain always has AA and he just doesn't. If there were 1 or 2 others in the action, maybe you can consider getting out. With the btn flatting pre, you don't want to play this multiway OOP.
I know these hands stay with you and feel like they are huge mistakes. You should look at your hand history and see how rare they actually are. Even if you could always with 100% certainty get away from KK vs AA after a 4bet, you might save less than 0.5bb/100. There are other far more profitable and less risky improvements you can do.
