Jammin AJo and ATo from the SB vs BU overfolds on 9xx and below
I’ve noticed that if you lock BU to overfold to flop jams (only calling TP+, FDs, best draws, a.k.a. the obvious stuff) whilst overfolding underpairs and overpair draws like AQo, you can get GTO to start open jamming AJo and ATo on most 9xx boards. Even accounting for a wide 14%ish micro/fish BU calling range, broadly defined as this:
Spoiler
…we still see the same effect, although a little less pronounced given these maniacs still have a good smattering of OPs to neutralise the attack.
Here are some examples. On the left: GTO v locked overfold GTO BU; and on the right: GTO v locked overfold fish range BU (sky blue colour = jam).
Spoiler
As you see, in general solver blood flows quite naturally to these combos. Sometimes it prefers KQ, probably for similar reasons, but my thinking is we focus on AJ/ATo, and bluff those pure in this line, then we remain unexploitable?
Preliminary investigations also suggest this effect is mostly replicated with 8xx and 7xx boards too. But if we go too low it starts to become tenuous.
Make sense yay/nay? Is this deployable or are we playing with 🔥?
3 Replies
Not crazy, you see lots of SB shoving on JTx flops in this formation.
This simplifies your strategy. But do you really want that against a fish?
Complexity tends to favor the more skilled player, but also the player in position, so simplifying cuts both ways here.
I want the easiest life mathematically possible 😉
So afaik fish barrel too much in this spot in general. They will stab the flop with b50+ too often putting these low equity hands at greater risk than a reg will. So AJ/AT will tend to fare quite poorly vs this likelihood. Whereas when we shove we are:
- blocking TP
- blocking some of their slowplayed OPs
- forcing the fish to underplay their equity
- preventing them from forcing us off our equity too early
The only scenario I can see where x-ing is better is when we hit our outs and the fish goes mental. Sometimes we will encounter a passive who will allow us to see those cards, but more often they are going to push their advantage whenever we X flop or turn, and the AJ/ATo region will struggle to meet MDF vs fish fun sizings.
But I'm open to debate.
Plus can't work vs the same fish in perpetuity ofc. Sometimes we run into a whale/super station who flips the advantage, but then we can flip to value only and now this line prints even harder.
