2024 Fantasy Football Thread

I’ll post mine too .

Caleb , Dak , Dart

Chase Brown , Kamara , Travis Etienne , Javonte , Spears , Dobbins

BTj , JSN, Tet , Diggs , Mooney , Keenan Allen , Ayomanor , MVS

Bowers , Jonnu, Higbee

Purdy, Tua, AR

JT, Conner, Mason, Sampson, Wright, Smith

JJ, Reek, Devonta, Jennings, Aiyuk, Bryant, AD, Felton, MVS

Kittle, Kraft

Here’s my first puppy. It’s difficult with how off ADP is, especially with the 20 sec clock. Burden and Noel were way too early

Mayfield, JJ, Geno

Chase, Chuba, Brob, Blue, Hill

Btjr, Evans, Addison, Burden, Shaheed, Noel, Ayomanor, Tucker

Bowers, Kraft

2nd one

Probably going to wait a few weeks to really get into it

Mahomes, Stroud

Bijan, Kyren, Henderson, Shipley, Hunt

Ladd, Rashee, Sutton, Pickens, Kirk, Doubs, Tolbert, Slayton

Kelce, Ferguson, Goedert

My fave team so far

Caleb, Trevor, Darnold

Chuba, Henderson, Pacheco, Tuten, Davis, Kendre

Puka, BTJ, JSN, DJM, Shakir, Palmer, Bryant, TeSlaa

Loveland, Ferguson, Arroyo

Bryant full agree, I heard enough draft analysts say post draft that they just missed Teslaa and they get it, so I’ll probably be a buyer

They both feel like guys that are valued for way more than just what we want for fantasy.

Yeah I think I got a little too fancy with Bryant. Should've just taken my guy, Felton, but I already have a decent amount I wanted to get someone else.

I think I'm still scarred from all of the zeros I took last year from day 2 WRs that I thought were actually going to play WR lol.

Corley, LMC, Burton, Polk, Wilson, and AD. I'll even throw in Franklin, Baker, and Tez, since I drafted them too. I think I really only want to be drafting guys that were top 50, or at least right on the edge in good spots like Harris and Bech. I'll throw Kyle Williams in there too, as I'll definitely be drafting him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does us dirty like Polk and Baker.

It's something I'm really trying to avoid this season. Those types of WR profiles, the Kimani Vidals of the world, etc.

Tai and Ayomanor are interesting, but they are -ev bets historically.

2023 day 2 was a mixed bag, but there were some quality players with good college profiles in good spots. The bad college profiles mostly missed. Mingo, Hyatt, Tillman, Mims, and Tucker were mostly zeros. Reed, Rice, Tank, and Downs were hits. Puka was obviously day 3 then, but he's just such an outlier.

2022 day 2 was mostly bad. Wan'Dale, Metchie, Tyquan, Skyy, Velus, Tolbert, and David Bell all flopped. Watson and Pickens gave good production. Pierce had a couple of usable weeks. Outside of Doubs, day 3 was bad.

2021 was about the same. Elijah Moore had a stretch and that was about it. Nico was drafted 89th, but he didn't have a good rookie season (thanks Davis Mills). ARSB was the hit from day 3, but he had a good prospect production profile and a lot of opportunity on his drafted team.

Is there any data on consensus big board fallers performance vs actual draft capital

Like if someone was expected to go day 2 but fell to day 3 do they outperform the avg day 3 performer? How do they do vs avg day 2

I’m thinking that bc I vaguely remember ARSB having a rd2 pff grade and falling in the real draft. Not sure if I’m remembering that correctly

I'm sure there is something out there, but I haven't seen it haha. It didn't work out for Troy Franklin.

Haha true true

Well I'm getting all of my Jags stacks done early since every draft I'm picking from 11 or 12. Sanders in the last round so I can have my one Browns stack.

Trevor, JJM, Sanders

Breece, Chuba, Jones, Guerendo, Bigsby, Wright

BJT, Ladd, Hunter, Addison, Diggs, McMillan, Pop, Atwell, Felton

Njoku, Engram

I think I'm going to have 0% all Browns QBs. Even if we somehow get signal in like July or August about an actual starter, I think I probably still won't draft them. I think I'm going to play NYG the same way. 0% of any of those QBs.

Agree on the Giants. I don't mind having 2%-4% of Sanders though since i think he's the most talented QB on that team and could see him starting at the end.

Yeah, maybe I'll change my tune later this summer, but at this point, I think Shedeur is live to not even show up for training camp lol.

I've got 2 more of the $3 ones to do, and I'll do the remaining 11 when the schedule is released. After that I think the plan will be to do the occasional DK Milly, but primarily going to focus on the Puppy and Schnauzer and then any $1 or $3 that DK adds.

What do we think of these tiers/cut off lists?

For RB, I think getting my 4th by Guerendo is ideal.

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Then for WR, getting my 6th by McMillan.

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Seems fair for both positions. I'd do some weird ones with heavy QB/TE sometimes, but balanced drafting is likely to be your best +ev bet. I need to be better about that this season too. Last year, I'd push RB a little too far or take like 6 WRs through 7 and I think that creates a diminishing return problem.

Above all, I still think roster construction and draft capital allocation is king. Player takes are fun and all, but I draft with the mindset that the market is mostly efficient.

yeah I thought of it after my last draft where I started with Jeanty/Achane, but then pushed my RB3 so far. It's not the worst, but it could've been better.

I think I’m going to be back to having a soft fade on DJM. I’ve notoriously been a hater and never cared for him on the Panthers but had 13% pre-draft betting on Ben Johnson. 16% Rome, tied for my highest owned with Tet. But I just don’t like the vibes lol.

Last year I had 6% DJM, 9% Keenan and 12% Rome. I’ll probably do something similar, like 5% DJM, 8-10% Rome and 12-16% Burden.

DJM needs to fall about a round+. Rome about a round to a round and a half.

I also feel iffy on Loveland at his new price. I don’t expect him to immediately supplant Kmet, plus target competition.

Rare 0 rookie draft

Lamar, Dak

Monty, Javonte, ETN, Allgeier, Shipley, Hill

CD, AJB, JSN, Ridley, Diggs, Pickens, Tolbert

Andrews, Ferguson, Chig

Double Chase

Caleb, Geno, Shough

Bucky, Chase, BRob, Sampson, Wright, Giddens

Chase, DJM, Flowers, Olave, Meyers, Shaheed, Keenan, Felton

Kraft, Otton, Kemet