[50NL] Turned set in 3bp on a great board for my range
GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 135 BB
SB: 66.14 BB
BB: 271.7 BB
Hero (UTG): 119.02 BB
MP: 157.72 BB
CO: 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♠ J♥
Hero raises to 2.5 BB, MP raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.5 BB
Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 9♦ 3♥ 8♥
Hero checks, MP bets 6.5 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB
Turn: (30.5 BB, 2 players) J♣
Hero checks, MP bets 16 BB, Hero raises to 104.52 BB
My actual range on the flop here is JJ, TT, AQs, sometimes AKo, QQ and 99
The questions are:
Is turn just a donk (probably yes, solver is donking 100%)
What is a good strategy for donk sizings on this turn ((solver seems to mix between small and very big)
When I check and villain makes the probable mistake of betting, do I slowplay or just go crazy (solver mixes call and all in, but I should not have a a range there so not sure how trustable this is)
For the last point, I think it's better to just go all in since we don't expect vilain to bet river on this board, but then we exploitatively weaken our range to only stuff that lose to overpairs, meaning villain could actually bet those.
4 Replies
GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 playersHand converted by PokerTracker 4BTN: 135 BBSB: 66.14 BBBB: 271.7 BBHero (UTG): 119.02 BBMP: 157.72 BBCO: 100 BBSB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BBPre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♠ J♥ Hero raises to 2.5 BB, MP raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.5 BBFlop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 9♦ 3♥ 8♥ Hero checks, MP bets 6.5 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BBTurn:
Hey, I think your analysis is pretty spot on - I would pretty much just evaluate how likely is this particular villain to bluff the River or value bet thin enough where I can be sure I can call the River jam/jam myself (if I decided to just call the Turn).
The strategy in these Turn and River nodes with your exact hand is pretty mixed, so whatever you pick is correct in theory. I would personally decide based on who this villain is (passive/aggro) and if I didn't have any info, I would just follow the basic MDA information which clearly shows that 4bet pots are underbluffed on the River and I would just Check-Jam the Turn like you did.
About Turn donking - I try to avoid it as much as I can, because it makes the strategy pretty complex and like you said it is hard to properly construct a range for the Turn donk, so I would just keep it simple and always check.
IMO Well played
Raise flop. I don't think IP get to bet range and 1/3 on these kind of boards are mostly range bets.
Spoiler: Vilain had QQ and called it off
