Top set facing raise on monotone board in 4B pot
Not sure if I should have played this differently. Would like some opinions.
This was a weekly single-day tournament with 1/2 hour levels. If it matters - $340 buy-in, starting stack 25k with 100/100 blinds at Parx Philly.
Reads - not much history on V. I've seen him play this tournament a handful of times. He seems solid, and not likely to get out of line. Some brief table talk revealed he's played the WSOP in LV, as well as some other local tournaments from Philly to Atlantic City. He seems VERY comfortable at the table, like he's been playing a long time and is well studied.
I'm a 1/3 and occasional 2/5 reg in this room. I know most of the other 1/3 and 2/5 regs that play on Friday nights, and I don't remember seeing this guy playing lower stakes cash games. It's possible he plays on different nights, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's playing 10/10 or some of the higher stake games the room occasionally spreads.
Hero should have a reasonably solid image - chip leader by a decent margin with about 32-36 players remaining, but perhaps viewed as a bit LAG-ish, having opened multiple pots since being moved to this new table and sat with V two seats to his left, about 15 minutes ago.
It's possible V recognizes me from playing this tournament about 20 times over the past 18 months, but may have no idea how I've done (four 2nd place finishes, one 3rd place, one 9th place, plus a few deep runs but finishing just out of the money).
Blinds are 800/1600/1600 for this hand. V is the effective stack with about 116,000 (72.5BB's). Hero has him covered, with a little over 280k (175BB's). The rest of the stacks at the table are all between 24k (15BB's) and 120k (75BB's). We're 8-handed. Average stack at this point is around 75k (47BB's).
OTTH....
PRE - Action folds to hero in EP/MP (like UTG+2 or LJ) who opens to 3800 with KcKs. V 3B to 11,500 from HJ or CO. Action folds back around to hero, who 4B to 30,000. V calls.
I'm not sure if my open or 4B size is optimal here, at these stack depths, and with the blinds increasing pretty quickly, such that any of the shorter stacks can jam with a wide range. The next blind level is 1000/2000/2000.
Any thoughts? Should I just 4B-jam pre, when he's only starting out with 116k, or is the stack depth too deep for a jam, even if we'll be OOP post-flop?
FLOP (64k in pot, 86k behind) - KdJd4d.
Hero c-bets 20k. V raises to 50k. Hero jams all in for V's remaining 36k (86k total).
No noticeable timing tells pre or on the flop, or at least none that I noticed from V, and I don't think I was giving any away.
Does anyone check here? If you bet, what size are you betting?
I know we're supposed to c-bet close to 100% for a small size as the pre-flop 4B'er, and I know we're supposed to bet small on monotone flops.
I think my c-bet may have been too large. I wasn't sure what to do, given what I thought his range might be, which was mostly QQ+/AK, maybe JJ+, and some sliver of AXs, probably just AQ/AT/A5. I don't think I've ever been in that situation - 4BP, top set with KK on a monotone / two-Broadway board, OOP, as the PFR, and just over 1 SPR.
I discussed this hand with a few other regs during the next break. Everyone seemed to agree that all the money was going in one way or the other, and that if V flopped a flush, we're just doubling him up.
The things is - I'm not sure. I don't know if V is supposed to call my 4B with JJ. I don't think he's raising flop with QxQd. I don't know if he's supposed to call pre with ATs or A5s. I don't know if he'd 5B-jam or flat call IP with AA pre. But what hands other than flopped flushes, AxAd, and JJ would risk raising my flop c-bet in a 4BP, on that board?
The more I thought about this, the less likely it seemed to me that he'd get to the flop the way he did with AA or JJ, and the more likely it seemed that he'd show up with AXdd.
11 Replies
Preflop is fine.
Your c-bet is large, but whatever. You have top set in a 4-bet pot. Even if he somehow has the nut flush, you have 35% to draw out. And in a 4-bet pot, JJ or AA with the Ad seem far more likely than that. Really, AdQd is the only combination he should realistically have-- any other possible suited aces that 3-bet here should be folding to the 4-bet. So there's 3 combos of AA with the Ad, 3 combos of JJ, and 1 combo of AdQd. Even if we think he doesn't raise those first two hands all the time, there's still far more of them.
I mean, as played, you're not that far off from the right price to get it in if he only ever does this with the nut flush, (it's only 64k more to put him in after your 20k bet for the 104k in the pot), and you have to be 100% confident of that to fold here. I don't see how you can be.
You almost have odds to gii after cbetting if you showed you the flush. You are 34% against a flush.
Raise size is standard. You can go bigger in live tournaments if you are not getting 3! a lot. 4! size is large in theory but fine in practice, as players who 3! for value don't like to fold.
With an SPR of about 1.3, I would just shove this flop. The shove underrepresents your hand. If he has a diamond, you want him to fold or gii may behind.
Played it perfect
I might go 20% pot on flop but wtver, as long as you dont fold at any point in this hand then you’ve played it fine
I don't think GTO rules about sizing on certain flop after certain preflop action necessarily apply to situations with SPR of 1.3. GTO is probably concerned about a lot of money going in, which can't happen.
I don't think GTO rules about sizing on certain flop after certain preflop action necessarily apply to situations with SPR of 1.3. GTO is probably concerned about a lot of money going in, which can't happen.
You may be right. But I think the idea behind the small c-bets in 4BP's and on monotone boards is that we want to keep V's calling range wide. As we start sizing up with our c-bets, V's range gets stronger, and it's already an extreme situation with strong ranges in 4BP's, or a fairly polar continue range on monotone boards.
Not to suggest that we'd fold top set in a 1.3 SPR situation. But as the SPR increases, it would seem like the need for caution likewise increases.
Reveal:
Spoiler
V snaps with AQdd, basically the one and only hand I was really worried about him having. V's hand holds up and he scoops.
I didn't regret the jam immediately after, but as the night wore on I started to think maybe I should have jammed pre, or checked flop. Not sure checking flop would have changed much. If he checks back I'm probably just making a delayed c-bet on the turn, and the same action unfolds. Jamming pre is probably a mistake, unless he's just going with JJ+/AKs.
I don't know if he's supposed to continue with AQs pre, at his starting stack depth of 116k, when I 4B to 30k. Seems like it's a really close spot for him, yet he didn't take too long with the decision, making it really hard for me to give him much credit for flopping a flush.
In game, it seemed like he might have been more likely to smooth call with AdAx from IP, and decided he was just going with his hand on the flop.
Coolers happen, and if you focus on trying to avoid them, you'll miss so much value in other spots.
I would have jammed preflop.
My typical 4 bet sizing is 46,000 (4x his 3bet because we are out of position). Now I know that my 4bet sizing has been large and in practice I might make it a bit smaller like 35,000. But the thing is that even 35,000 is roughly 30% of effective stack. So that would make it a jam for me.
Funny thing is AQs might call the jam anyway, but in many cases won't because your hand looks a lot like KK/AK/AA and even possibly QQ.
As played, there is no way to not get it in at some point. The effective stack size on the flop is now 86,000 with 64,000 in the pot. Even if you check the flop Villain will bet at least 20,000 so the turn will be a shove or a clever check back so that the river shove will get called. I prefer the cbet to a check because things will get awful if it goes check/check and the turn is a diamond. My sizing would likely be jam because a cbet at 30,000 is again > 30% effective stack size. But I would be tempted to make it 20,000, which you did, to get a call from AK (with or without a flush draw)
Villain's raise is screaming nut flush because it is insane that it wasn't a jam. But it makes no difference because you have a 33% chance of winning at this point and cannot fold to a 30,000 raise with 144,000 in the pot. Nor will you be able to fold to a 36,000 turn jam into a 180,000 chip pot. You will be getting the correct pot odds there too.
You have top set and villain can have JJ. Villain can also have AKo/AQo with the nut flush draw though I doubt Villain would raise 30,000 with those hands and almost no FE... Your preflop 4-bet sizing will likely not be folded to with any of those hands in position.
Played it perfect. 4 bet size is good to induce, flop bet size is good.
You 4 bet and got a very good flop. The only hand that you are behind is a flopped flush. But if the villain flops a flush in a 4 bet pot, and you flop top set at this stack depth, then good night. There is absolutely no way you are folding given the pot size and what's left in the stack. The worst case scenario would be that you bet the flop small and the turn comes and it's a spade and now you are in a weird spot with a large pot, drawing to the nuts, but might be force to turn your hand into a bluff.
The only reasonable hand that you even have to worry about is AQs. If this player called you with AsXs, then they got lucky.
