NL25 optimistic turn all-in?
CO opens 2bb, BU 3bet 6.5bb, hero with AsKc in BB (120bb effective) raises 22bb, BU calls.
Flop Qc4sQs. BB c-bet 25%, BU calls. Turn is 5s. BB all-in, CU calls and wins with KhKd.
First, he shouldn't really have KK here but okay. Also, if he had shown me KK before I bet I would have proceeded with all-in. Is the call too sticky?
I thought he wouldnt have too many QQ since some would re-raise preflop. Against AQs or KQs or flushes I have a fifth chance to win backdoor. I guess the problem is he doesn't have much air or middling equity to arrive here. Solver shows AJ, KJ, KT plus pocket pairs but can we expect this in practice?
Also, should I even construct an all-in range in this spot? GTOwizard prefers either check or half pot. Is it because a 1/2 bet get's folds from the air he has and most values hands will not fold to an all-in either?
3 Replies
First, he shouldn't really have KK here but okay. Also, if he had shown me KK before I bet I would have proceeded with all-in. Is the call too sticky?
If you trapped KK folding at any point in this hand would be crazy..
Doubt strict GTO is going to help too much here cos this BB cold 4b range v BU 3b/call range is going to be considerably off from the start. 4b pots are kind of a gto paradox because on one level they're the simplest solves to run but on another slight variations pre muck up the whole brew. Meaning, if you have a strong read on v's range you can make awesome deviations but conversely if you don't those deviations will eat you alive.
And I think this range is one of them. They aren't supposed to trap KK but they probably are supposed to trap AA if we have any 4b bluffs.
If you're trying to fold out low PPs and AK/AQ, then they aint folding this brickish turn often enough imo. They might fold flop, sometimes, but you'd need to just jam and go with it to generate any FE. Once the depol is called I think we're dead as a dodo. Blocking too many folds (As useful but not crucial), unblocking QQ/JJ/TT which will all call at some frequency.
Cbet flop or x/c, x/f turn unless we get a great price. This is not a high FE board and sometimes AK gets poleaxed. C'est la vie
I think this is a pretty big punt. Firstly I think 4-bet pre is too big. Makes it hard to 4-bet with more speculative holdings . The flop is interesting as you potentially have AQo here and villain probably meant to fold KQs if not AQs to 4-bet especially vs this bigger size. B25 range then makes sense.
Jam turn I think is terrible though. You just have to make this a 2 street game. Also you have have terrible combo unblocking the Qx. As I guess good but it's just so much more to have equity / blocker to the Q when you play jam. I think this hand can B25- B40 if you have AQo here preflop. Otherwise I would mix As.
Thanks a lot for the thoughs! I can see retrospectively that the jam was bad. Also, thanks on the 4-bet sizing hint.
