Conclave sweat threat: Who will be the next pope?

Conclave sweat threat: Who will be the next pope?

Pope Francis has left the table. The first Latin‑American pontiff played every street of his twelve‑year run

21 April 2025 at 10:37 AM
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414 Replies


Earlier posts are available on our legacy forum HERE

by Rococo

Because of how popes are selected, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on who the next pope would be. But in terms of what is best for the world, if you told me right now that I either could be guaranteed that the Tagle would be the next pope or I could roll the dice on the process, I would take Tagle.

Why exactly wouldn't you feel comfortable?


Has anyone watched the timely movie Conclave, which came out last year and won a few Oscars? Or read the book it was based on by Robert Harris? I have done neither as of yet, but I have read a few of Harris' novels, including Fatherland, which was a very entertaining alternate history tale, set in 1964, in a world where the US never fully joined the Allies so the Axis Powers won.



Rest in peace.

As an American, I kind of wish the presidential secret service had bad ass uniforms like the pope's Swiss Guard.


by chillrob

Why exactly wouldn't you feel comfortable?

For me, at least, it would be difficult to handicap the end result of an iterative process where people were likely to change their votes over time. I'm not saying it's impossible for anyone. But for someone like me who doesn't follow church politics at all, it would be pretty much a guess.


by chillrob

Has anyone watched the timely movie Conclave, which came out last year and won a few Oscars? Or read the book it was based on by Robert Harris? I have done neither as of yet, but I have read a few of Harris' novels, including Fatherland, which was a very entertaining alternate history tale, set in 1964, in a world where the US never fully joined the Allies so the Axis Powers

I watched the movie. The end was a bit Oscar bait-ish, but it was entertaining.


Daniel Silva also has a recent book centered on a conclave where the Mossad main character helps solves the Pope's murder.


by campfirewest

I think this guy would be a strong candidate. Pretty sure he's not into boys though, which could count against him.

by Deuces McKracken

Why would you be pretty sure about that? Given that a guy renounces sex with women, and takes on a role that confers the highest trust, the chance of him being a pedo has to go way up (as we've seen play out).

I'm pretty sure this guy is not a pedo.


by campfirewest

I'm pretty sure this guy is not a pedo.

Oh you're pretty sure? Ok then. That's solid. Agreed.


Typical leftist, seething when being called out for obvious fault but will call anyone a pedo if they have the Bad Ideology.

And then you wonder why normal people despise leftists.


Typical Republican, lamenting the most fringe of leftist as "typical". Then you wonder why normal liberals think all rightys are ******ed


The stopgap solution becomes obsolete when the real solution exists.

Exactly. A stopgap's job is to hold things together until the real fix arrives. Once the proper solution—whether it's a new system, a permanent repair, or a complete redesign—is in place, the stopgap is just clutter. Like using a spare tire until you get a new one; once the real tire's on, the spare goes back in the trunk. Obsolescence hits when the actual solution renders the temporary one redundant.




by Deuces McKracken

How corrupt is the Catholic church?

Not very.

No wait...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banco_Ambr...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappeara...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magdalene_...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/m...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_c...

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/13/118176763...

...Scratch the "not" part.


by jjjou812

Daniel Silva also has a recent book centered on a conclave where the Mossad main character helps solves the Pope's murder.


by Deuces McKracken

I think it kinda does matter in that it leaves you with less of an excuse as to why you don't know that Christian Zionists, those of the denominations who believe that Jews being in Israel will portend the coming of supernatural beings causing end times scenarios, are deeply antisemitic. They believe that all the Jews (or nearly all) will all dies after they get to Israel and t

Eagerly awaiting your documentation for this claim. Thank you in advance.


by Rococo

For me, at least, it would be difficult to handicap the end result of an iterative process where people were likely to change their votes over time. I'm not saying it's impossible for anyone. But for someone like me who doesn't follow church politics at all, it would be pretty much a guess.

I ended up shorting Parolin specifically more than betting on Tagle because i had doubts about my read (but i think Parolin at 35-36 was a bit insane tbh).

My city guy, Zuppi, is increasing in odds and if you ask chatgpt giving access to current odds it gave 25% odds for Zuppi early today (ie chatgpt thinks he is under rated for now in markets).

I tried to probe why, looks like chatgpt actually thinks they will choose continuity on progressivism but with a european voice calling for that. My read was they weren't so eager to pick an european.


by checkraisdraw

Typical leftist, seething when being called out for obvious fault but will call anyone a pedo if they have the Bad Ideology.

And then you wonder why normal people despise leftists.

I called no one a pedo, just questioned why anyone would assume any priest wasn't just based on a photo.

Normal people despise liberals, not Leftists. Normal people are Leftists if you consider their policy positions independent of their political party affiliation.

I despise Liberals. When Pelosi put on a dashiki I despised that and her and all her political friends. Don't lump me in with the likes of them. Call me a pinko commie sellout terrorist America hater if you want to make exaggerations, but calling me a liberal is way over the line sir.



by coordi

Typical Republican, lamenting the most fringe of leftist as "typical". Then you wonder why normal liberals think all rightys are ******ed

lol I am the furthest thing from a Republican.


by Deuces McKracken

I called no one a pedo, just questioned why anyone would assume any priest wasn't just based on a photo.Normal people despise liberals, not Leftists. Normal people are Leftists if you consider their policy positions independent of their political party affiliation.I despise Liberals. When Pelosi put on a dashiki I despised that and her and all her political friends. Don't lump

I never called you a liberal. You are an extremely illiberal person that hates freedom and wants everyone to bend down to terrorists because you feel guilty about America being the best country in the world, but you will never leave because at the end of the day you will never actually follow your principles despite thinking America is worse than Nazi Germany.


by checkraisdraw

I never called you a liberal. You are an extremely illiberal person that hates freedom and wants everyone to bend down to terrorists because you feel guilty about America being the best country in the world, but you will never leave because at the end of the day you will never actually follow your principles despite thinking America is worse than Nazi Germany.

Kinda reminds me of another current long-time poster here on 2p2. Everyone should know who I mean.

At least Rosie O'Donnell had the courage of her convictions. (Which is easier to do when you're an entertainer in a capitalistic society that values freedom)


by Deuces McKracken

Oh you're pretty sure? Ok then. That's solid. Agreed.

I’m really disappointed in you. My humble suggestion is to spend less time on 2+2 and more time on other more entertaining parts of the internet.


Are y'all even catholic?


I don't get people saying just leave.
It takes more courage to stay than to leave.
Leaving is the easy way out.
Not always possible though.


by Morphismus

Are y'all even catholic?

I'm non observant/practicing and am not religious, but was raised Catholic.

And on that note....

Spoiler
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