WSOPC $2K ME, AK vs shove and flat close to money bubble
I forget the exact blinds level but I wrote the hand down in terms of BB. I think it was 5K BB
We are about 15 - 20 away from the money bubble. We are newish to the table. We are 8 handed, and a lot of people are pretty short stacked.
UTG 17BB - seems to be tighter, but is middle aged (we have only seen him play 1 hand in 2.5 orbits)
Vilain (HJ) - late 30s has just under 70bbs
Hero - Good looking and all around good guy w 53BB
Preflop: Hero has AKo
UTG open shoves 17BB, 2 folds, HJ flats, Hero?
We obviously can't flat AK in this spot because we are putting in 1/3 of our stack. Is this a snap jam, a close jam? Too much of a gamble close to the bubble?
6 Replies
I actually prefer calling to jamming.
If we jam it is likely that Villain will call because they are getting the right price (36 bb's to call to win 54 bb's, so only needs 40% equity). I doubt Villain called the 17 bb's with 2 broadway cards (like KQ/KJ/QJ) or SC's. I don't know Villain's range of PP's but I would guess its like 88+ but maybe could have 66+. If we jam will Villain fold 99? 88? Maybe not even 77 or 66.
The other reason is that with no side pot Villain is unlikely to bet if their PP has an overcard so we may get to see 5 cards. And if we miss we get to fold if Villain's PP is top pair and they bet. If we hit we get to go all in and take it down or chop (unless Villain hits a set). And if Villain bets the flop when we miss they virtually always have a solid hand with one pair or better. Only a few times have I seen a Villain bet the flop with a draw or a complete miss and only once did it cost the player who folded the hand.
If Villain wins when we hit an A or K then we would have gone down anyway if we jam (mostly).
The other problem for me with jamming and Villain folds, is that if UTG has a pair and we miss then we are not gaining anything anyway. Where it pays off is if Villain folds a small PP and UTG has an Ax hand or a hand that misses. The other pay off is if Villain has AQ/AJ and calls our jam. But I just think Villain mostly jams with that type of hand.
I would also prefer to jam with more chips than Villain or at least a spot where Villain needs more equity. Then we have better FE.
Where I tend to jam preflop is after I raise and there are one or more callers and then a player with short stack jams. Then I jam because the range of the callers is limited and they will likely fold to the jam (and they almost always do). Here Villains range should be strong and it is possible Villain is trying to lure us into jamming.
What is Hero's position?
Hero is BTN
Anyways, This hand was interesting because I did end up jamming.
Spoiler
The villain tanked for about 3 or 4 minutes and kept saying he felt I had AA. It was only ~35BB to win a pot that would have been 120BBs. After the villain tanked he open folded KK. UTG had AQ and we ended up scooping a nice pot on a dry low board.
It got me thinking if the villain is folding KK there, then I really do need to be jamming AK.
Unbelievable!
Wow.
I did not think we had fold equity vs TT+ because of the sizing. But KK?
It had to be because of the bubble being so close but really folding KK when he would have 17 bb's left if he loses?
Also, if I had KK and was calling a smallish jam it would be to try to induce a jam with hands like QQ/JJ/AJ+. So I would never fold in this spot. Typically though I would have jammed with KK to get it HU.
